Fix Your Packers

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Defense is lacking talent, period. Almost no playmakers on defense which is what you need to be a successful. To many players just flat out suck. Burnett sucks, MD Jennings sucks, Brad Jones sucks, Pickett got old, Raji giving half effort, and then throw in injuries. Its that simple. 2010 we had Nick Collins, Woodson, Williams, Shields, Bishop, Matthews, Jenkins, Good Raji, Pickett, and good health considering players we lost on defense that year had backups who were better (see Burnett, Barnett, Chillar).

We need better drafting its that simple.

[mraynrand]

One more thought occurs to me: if this team had a dominating defensive line - in a 3-4, I suppose that means guys who can eat up blocks all day long without being moved an inch, would that free up your more inexperienced players? Would it allow rookie or second year linebackers the time and space to make plays? Would it make up for the problem of having to play so many rooks on defense?

to answer this question, just look at the Giants. Their defense was excellent largely due to a great line. Stop the run, generate pressure - both those things can hide a lot of average guys behind you. But, lose one guy to FA and another to injury, and suddenly, you look like garbage.

[denverYooper]

San Fran was retooling long before 2010 as so has a deep reservoir of talent on D. Seattle has had a remarkable turnaround and good luck with a lot of mid round picks.

The Packers have had very mixed results from their first and second round picks (Clay versus Perry, Jones, Burnett and Neal) and the best comparables to Seattle's mid round picks might be the UDFAs (Shields and Williams). Best midrange guy on D roster, Daniels, would be more fearsome if people were healthy (Clay), found a home (Perry and Neal) and/or Jones with another year of seasoning.

Those pieces would probably work OK in nickel and dime pass D if the run D would stop collapsing. There are just too many moving parts and not enough out right studs.

This is a great point re the 9ers -- they didn't just throw a bunch of FAs together and start dominating. They'd been a middling to good defense for a few years before Harbaugh came along and taught the offense how to play ball control. Once they had a whole-team-game philsophy, some hot yoga included in their S+C , and added a handful of difference makers (Aldon Smith, Kaep), it put them over the top for a run.

Take a look at this breakdown of 49ers acquisitions:

[McCloughan/Nolan]
2005 (4-12): Gore
2006 (7-9): Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker (lost in FA but a big contributor the last 2 years)
2007 (5-11): Patrick Willis, Joe Staley, Ray McDonald, Dashon Goldson, Tarrell Brown
2008 (7-9) : Justin Smith (FA 6 yr/$45m), Ahmad Brooks (waivers)
[McCloughan/Singletary]
2009 (8-8): Michael Crabtree, Alex Boone (FA)
[Baalke]
2010 (6-10): Iupati, Anthony Davis, Navorro Bowman
[Baalke/Harbaugh]
2011 (13-3): Aldon Smith, Kaepernick, Chris Culliver, Kendall Hunter, Bruce Miller, Whitner (FA), Carlos Rodgers (FA), Jonathan Goodwin (FA)
2012 (11-4-1): LaMichael James, Joe Looney
2013 (13-3): Reid, Vance McDonald, Lemonier, Quinton Patton

They most of their core guys pre-Hairball. Jim's 2011 was decent. Out of that group, Aldon Smith seemed to be the piece that put the defense over the top. Kaepernick is a good player. Miller has been a good fullback. Whitner hits hard and talks big, but he went missing on Seattle's game-changing TD, not unlike our guys (the missing part). Of their 2012/2013 offseasons, the pickins have been slim -- a decent return man in James and a good safety in Reid. That's not to say that their 2013 picks won't eventually contribute (2012 was horrible for them), but they had a core group that was there for a long time, even pre-Hairball.

[denverYooper]

So what does that mean for the Packers? Well, if they stick it out and build a strong core of guys on that defense to where they can bring draft picks along more slowly, they are probably set for 10 years because I doubt Capers will want to leave for an HC job. Part of the pain is building that core out of guys who want to be there (probably not Raji), who can stay on the field (any number of players not named Hawk), and who are mature enough within the system takes time -- they have to try out the parts to get what works. It's unfortunate that Raji seems disinterested in being there because he would be an important piece. But maybe that will turn out if it means that they can pay Mike Daniels down the road.

Now, I do think they need to look strongly at an FA or two. But I don't think they have to go crazy signing FA DE's like Seattle has done. And I don't think they need a dominant defense -- just one that can show a little more structural integrity and get after the passer more consistently.

[pbmax]

I don't buy the whole "You need guys who have been in the system for years" argument. The best defense Capers had here was in 2010, when they were only in the 2nd year of playing the 3-4. The 2010 team had to rely on rookies. Sam Shields was the nickel back, which means he was practically a starter. Frank Zombo started half the games. What that defense had was playmakers on the back end. Collins, Woodson and Tramon were all Pro Bowl players.

That team also got healthy at the end of the year. Matthews and Cullen Jenkins were both 100% at the end of the year which was not the case for much of the year. Contrast that with the 2013 team which lost Jolly and Matthews (again) at the end of the year, and lost Shields and Neal during the playoff game.

The last thing I would point out is that the 2 worst starters on the 2013 team (Brad Jones and Jennings) are veterans in this defense. The Packers had 2 gaping holes in their starting lineup which need to be filled, whether by rookies or veterans.

No one wants veterans for veterans sake. I don't prefer Pat Lee or Bush over Shields in 2010 because Lee/Bush has had more camps in the Defense. Jones is in his second year at ILB and he might not be able to do it for 3 downs. Vet or no, that doesn't help him be in the right spot.

The Steelers defense struggled this year despite veterans ALL OVER. Probably because those vets had been there too long.

Its the combo of callowness (and the resulting lack of airtightness) and lack of big play(ers) that hurts. Collins in the backend meant Peprah could be limited and his exposure minimized. Matthews and Jenkins meant Raji was getting free runs at the QB.

Tramon was having an All-Pro year so Woodson could get less challenging match ups and take risks plus he could play the slot to blanket diminutive threats (Welker).

Those pieces made their own sense. The 2013 pieces don't yet. If they were airtight, they could more safety bleed yardage until the O makes a mistake.

The Challenge is getting the players together with the right version of the scheme for that year.

[denverYooper]

Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 36m
100% agree. RT @pwslavik: Schneider'll be judged in maintaining contender after Wilson/Sherman contracts and drafting near bottom for years

Sherman:

year      salary           bonus        cap hit    dead
2013	 555,000	 45,606	 -	600,606	 91,212

Wilson:

2013        526,217	 154,868	 -	681,085	 464,604

I'd guess that, APRH, they'll cost ~30 mil per year together. Right now, they're 1.3 mil.

[mraynrand]

Jason Wilde @jasonjwilde 36m
100% agree. RT @pwslavik: Schneider'll be judged in maintaining contender after Wilson/Sherman contracts and drafting near bottom for years

Of course they'll be judged on future performance, but their current squad is filled with highly effective middle round picks. It really looks like they know what they're doing (unfortunately, because I want Pete Carroll to go down in flames!)