Who Should TT Pick In 1st Round? - Pre-Senior Bowl Edition

[mraynrand]

I know the rationale... and I have shot them down using the evidence - or rather, Capers himself proved that his 'solutions' to whatever personnel problems we may, or may not have had, were no solutions at all.

What evidence have you provided? Break it down for me the running success other teams have had against Neal, Pickett, Jolly, Perry Matthews and Hawk.

[wist43]

He started his obsession with nickel as the primary defense in the Super Bowl year. It was a response to the terrible pass defense at the end of the previous year (see Cardinals playoff game).

Speaking of Jenkins in Psycho, that is exactly what the beat writers thought of when McCarthy mentioned some alignments they went away from due to injuries.

McCarthy said he sets the goals for the defense. He has not said he will take a greater role. I think we are reading too much into what he has said. Its possible he is tired of it and will change his approach up, but his press conference isn't confirmation yet.

If MM doesn't get more involved with the defense, then Capers will simply keep doing what he's been doing - Capers wants to run the 2-4 as much as he possible can. I think he's proven that. I also think he's proven that the 2-4, with the peronnel we have, and the way he runs it, is complete shit.

If MM doesn't get more involved, we're just going to see more of the same next year.

[mraynrand]

He started his obsession with nickel as the primary defense in the Super Bowl year. It was a response to the terrible pass defense at the end of the previous year (see Cardinals playoff game).

right, but that was with the "W" role for Woodson. With the loss of Woodson, and Collins on the back end, it kinda fell apart. Thus, I think you need to revise that role for Matthews at "ILB"

[3irty1]

Not trusting Capers is an issue with every defensive player... to be sure, he's misused every front seven player he's had for the past 3 years.

Go back to the SB year though, and Capers ran a lot more base 3-4, and the way he used Jenkins made a huge difference in the effectiveness of our defensive front. Supposedly MM is going to have more input on the defensive side of the ball - I think that can only mean he is going to address what I have been complaining about these past few years. A blind man can see that Capers version of the 2-4 is junk (ayn can't, but a blind man can ) - assuming MM forces Capers to get his head out of his ass, I could see a guy like Donald being a nice piece to the puzzle.

As I've been saying - it's next to impossible to evaluate anyone in the front seven due to Capers misuse. The 2 guys I would give a grade to would Brad Jones and AJ Hawk - both get an F and need to be replaced.

The rest of the front seven guys have looked bad in the roles they've been cast, but that is Capers fault. Maybe the players aren't that good?? Perry hasn't looked very good - but again, I think he's being completely misused.

When it comes to our defense - a step backward, leading to Capers firing, would actually be 10 steps forward. As long as Capers is there, we're going to have problems.

That bold part is not True. Capers first rolled out the 2-4 in 2010 and we ran it on 70-75% of snaps. During our playoff run there was some media attention on our giant 3-man line featuring Howard Green but that was a situational defense and not something we saw a lot. Your dislike of the 2-4 is well documented but that's not been a very credible argument because the formation is obviously not the problem. We had tremendous success running it all the time in 2010 and other teams have had tremendous success running it most of the time as well including the 49ers who you've got a well documented boner for. If you want to argue that Dom has been living in the past trying to recreate that success with ham-fisted attempts to put new players in the old highlighted roles vacated by super stars, then I'm right there with you. You've got to find a new way to win every single year. Innovate or die.

[mraynrand]

If you want to argue that Dom has been living in the past trying to recreate that success with ham-fisted attempts to put new players in the old highlighted roles vacated by super stars, then I'm right there with you. You've got to find a new way to win every single year. Innovate or die.

This is much closer to the truth. Packers opened up the season without Hayward (woodson) and Burnett (collins) in roles the defense needed to run the 2-4. But if recollection serves, the Packers ran a lot more 3-4 in that game. Anywho, the innovation part I agree with - but at some point you run out of guys to do it. APRH, I would love to see Neal, Perry, Matthews and Hawk on the field together a lot - unless they draft a sure-fire ILB starter. Either way, Dom has got to stop wasting Matthews at ROLB.

[wist43]

That bold part is not True. Capers first rolled out the 2-4 in 2010 and we ran it on 70-75% of snaps. During our playoff run there was some media attention on our giant 3-man line featuring Howard Green but that was a situational defense and not something we saw a lot. Your dislike of the 2-4 is well documented but that's not been a very credible argument because the formation is obviously not the problem. We had tremendous success running it all the time in 2010 and other teams have had tremendous success running it most of the time as well including the 49ers who you've got a well documented boner for. If you want to argue that Dom has been living in the past trying to recreate that success with ham-fisted attempts to put new players in the old highlighted roles vacated by super stars, then I'm right there with you. You've got to find a new way to win every single year. Innovate or die.

Good grief 3irty1, he hasn't been running the 2-4 70-75% of the time the last couple of years, and he's run more 2-4 than anyone in the league, lol...

Don't know if there's a stat out there for it... will do some looking.

That said, he did run some 2-4 in 2010, but nothing like he has been the past few years - and he had Jenkins and Raji (being used properly). Since then, he's just gone stupid.

[wist43]

What evidence have you provided? Break it down for me the running success other teams have had against Neal, Pickett, Jolly, Perry Matthews and Hawk.

The stats ayn, good grief... we get blown out and run over, and you immediately go into denial mode. Statistically, we've had one of the worst defenses in the league the past 3 seasons - and statistics be damned, didn't you watch the games?? Remember the Arizona playoff game?? The SF blowout?? Indianapolis?? The record setting pourous pass defense?? The 31st defensive ranking?? 2013's 25th defensive ranking?? On and on...

I didn't conjur the evidence like a magician; I didn't plant the evidence at the crime scene like a dirty cop... Capers is the criminal - with you on the jury, he'll continue to get away with butchering our defense forever

[pbmax]

right, but that was with the "W" role for Woodson. With the loss of Woodson, and Collins on the back end, it kinda fell apart. Thus, I think you need to revise that role for Matthews at "ILB"

I think that is where the injury came in. If Hayward is healthy, I think you see him there. Might have been too much information for Hyde to absorb. Bush has done it in dime.

[pbmax]

All those failures could cook Capers' goose. But McCarthy and Thompson clearly think differently about it.

What we are disagreeing about are the contrary pieces of information like the Cardinals game, where a complete lack of pass rush (not nickel or run D) led directly to a passing game catastrophe for 3 Quarters. I think the Cardinals eventually got tired.

The adjustment, nickel at a higher rate, worked great until teams discovered that A) the pass rush still wasn't all that great unless the Packers overloaded a blitz and B) they could run at it.

So you could yo-yo back to 3-4 and psycho all the time but then all hell would break loose in the passing game with the safeties now, even if you consider Woodson replaced by Hayward/Shields. I like the middle road of finding pass rush from base lineman and not fatties alone.

And that is what Rand is trying to tell you. A more conventionally weighted D line might possess more pass rush and allow 3-4 more of the time, solving one of your primary concerns. It might also provide better run D in nickel because those displaced ends (Neal and Perry) can then play end and defend run as well as pass rush while the interior is adequately manned by others.

[Joemailman]

So if they are looking for a more conventional 3-4 D-line, do they ignore concerns about Hageman's motor and take him? Stephon Tuitt of Notre Dame, like his teammate Nix had a great 2012 and a disappointing and injury-plagued 2013. Tuitt also looks like a prototype. Or do you shore up the Safety position with Dix or Prior. Quite a few intriguing choices could have TT looking to trade down a few spots.

[mraynrand]

The stats ayn, good grief... we get blown out and run over, and you immediately go into denial mode. Statistically, we've had one of the worst defenses in the league the past 3 seasons - and statistics be damned, didn't you watch the games?? Remember the Arizona playoff game?? The SF blowout?? Indianapolis?? The record setting pourous pass defense?? The 31st defensive ranking?? 2013's 25th defensive ranking?? On and on...

I didn't conjur the evidence like a magician; I didn't plant the evidence at the crime scene like a dirty cop... Capers is the criminal - with you on the jury, he'll continue to get away with butchering our defense forever

You're talking right past me. I know all about the defensive failings. You accused me of supporting the failing 2-4. I'm trying to explain that I think it is mostly a personnel issue - guys lost to retirement and injury have compromised it's effectiveness. For some reason, you think that changing the scheme would make the group of guys they had this past year better, and I'm saying perhaps, but not by much, because of the personnel.

I'm also offering an alteration of the 2-4, that tries to compensate for the loss of Woodson but putting Mattews at ILB (but really he could play a modified "W" role)

I really don't know what you want to convince me of, other than the Packers should get rid of Capers. Since they played pretty well in 2010 when they had a pretty nice core of outstanding players, I think it is less Capers and more personnel, but I'm perfectly fine with laying some blame on Capers too.

On a personal note, in a number of threads I've asked you specific questions about the defense which you've ignored. I would have been interested in your answers, but you seem more interested in ranting. That's OK, I won't ask anymore. Enjoy the rant, it's part of being a fan too

[mraynrand]

A more conventionally weighted D line might possess more pass rush and allow 3-4 more of the time, solving one of your primary concerns. It might also provide better run D in nickel because those displaced ends (Neal and Perry) can then play end and defend run as well as pass rush while the interior is adequately manned by others.

That's why I want that Hageman guy - I think he could be an outstanding 3-4 DE on any down and distance.

I also really want to see Perry Neal and Matthews on the field at the same time. I think they ran it a few times this past year but I gotta check for sure. I may be the only crazy idiot who thinks this is a good idea.

[run pMc]

So if they are looking for a more conventional 3-4 D-line, do they ignore concerns about Hageman's motor and take him? Stephon Tuitt of Notre Dame, like his teammate Nix had a great 2012 and a disappointing and injury-plagued 2013. Tuitt also looks like a prototype. Or do you shore up the Safety position with Dix or Prior. Quite a few intriguing choices could have TT looking to trade down a few spots.

I really like Calvin Pryor and think he has the speed to play FS and is physical enough to play SS so they'd have some flexibility there with Burnett. Plus the S position is a big mess.

If you're talking about conventional 3-4 DL where do they need most help? I like Nix at DT, but I wonder if they could put Boyd (with 10 pounds of muscle) or draft a kid like Jones out of PSU there. I think they're banking on Datone Jones making a leap, and wouldn't be surprised if they brought in someone like the Coleman kid from Cal to play the other DE spot. Unless TT trades down for extra picks, I don't think they'll draft 2 DL though. Seems like they have other holes to fill (TE, WR, LB), especially if a lot of their FA's sign elsewhere.

[run pMc]

That's why I want that Hageman guy - I think he could be an outstanding 3-4 DE on any down and distance.

I also really want to see Perry Neal and Matthews on the field at the same time. I think they ran it a few times this past year but I gotta check for sure. I may be the only crazy idiot who thinks this is a good idea.

Crazy Idea Part II: What if they put Neal at ILB next to Hawk? Hawk doesn't have the speed to cover well, but at least Neal would be a thumper inside and he's used to playing against interior OL. That would keep Matthews outside, where personally I think he'd be more dangerous than at ILB. Who knows, if all those guys knew the ILB/OLB responsibilties, Capers could move them all over the place (Perry inside one down, Matthews another, etc.)
I do think that Perry and Neal bring a lot of size to the LB group, which might not make wist happy, but it oughta make McGinn happy.

Actually, if Neal signs elsewhere, this might be a moot point.

[Brandon494]

I take back my pick, I would go with Calvin Pryor or HaHa. Getting a starter at safety is a must, we can sign veteran guys on the D-line.