Copycat League

[3irty1]

The Seahawks are going to have to adapt to stay on top which is extremely challenging. The winning recipe has a quick expiration date in the NFL. Key pieces are lost to money and age, a truly adept front office can retool the team and find NEW ways to win. MM does a remarkable job of this, Capers, and Ted seem to be still living in 2010.

[denverYooper]

The Seahawks are going to have to adapt to stay on top which is extremely challenging. The winning recipe has a quick expiration date in the NFL. Key pieces are lost to money and age, a truly adept front office can retool the team and find NEW ways to win. MM does a remarkable job of this, Capers, and Ted seem to be still living in 2010.

Nice turn of phrase.

At some point, it also seems like good teams figure out the antidote for whatever the successful team does well and that becomes the "blueprint" for beating them.

[Pugger]

I think there is already a trend forming placing a hyper-emphasis on the safety position. There has been a HUGE shortage of good safeties over the last 5 years in the draft, Seattle has by far the finest duo. Historically its the position least likely to bust, and has led to some drafting that would be considered reaches during a non-drought. Reid, Elam, and Cyprian all went 15 to 20 slots higher in the draft than strict BPA would probably have called for. I suspect we'll see more of the same this year. Calvin Pryor could easily crack the top 20 the way Reid did.

And this is why safety is our weakest position after we lost Collins. If Pryor moves up like Reid did it will be damn difficult for us to get him unless Ted moves up.

[Pugger]

Yeah, they have built a very fast defense. Earl Thomas was a CB who switched to safety. They've taken a lot of risks on size-speed prospects or boom-bust players, and it paid off this year. "Regression to the mean" says Percy Harvin will have a meltdown and Carroll will get busted for BountygateII. LOL Seriously, they hit on a lot of picks in the drafts that we've been roasting TT on: 2011, 2012. Getting away with some physical stuff like they do helps that pass rush, but having a lot of speed and a good pass rush helps the secondary. Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner, K.J.Wright, Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson...mid-round picks that were very successful gambles.

There are some lessons to be learned/copied, I think speed and fit to scheme are a big part of Seattle's success on defense. I didn't see a lot of missed tackles, but I did see a lot of gang tackles, so they are aggressive and fast. The offense is ok; Wilson's scrambling and Lynch's power makes them go. They aren't an offensive juggernaut, although Harvin gives them a dynamic weapon. If GB were to copy anything, it would be to get faster at LB, especially ILB. It would certainly feed into the current narrative (which I agree with) that GB needs to get better at S, and tackling.

They're going to have a lot of tough decisions to make this offseason and next; lots of key players become FA or eligible for extensions. I think they'll release or redo contracts on a bunch of players (Sidney Rice, etc.) in order to keep guys like Golden Tate, Micheal Bennett, Steven Hauschka, Breno, etc.

Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman are scheduled to become free agents in 2015 and figure to be offered lucrative, long-term contracts somewhere. Russell Okung and Russell Wilson top the players up after 2015. I think Lynch is in there too, but by then he'll be nearing 30 and they'll know if they have a replacement on the roster. Carroll will likely move to the broadcasting booth and we'll have to deal with him there. Ugh.

49ers are a very good but aging team. Baalke's had a ton of draft picks lately, but they rely on their vets heavily; who knows what their depth really is. I think they can be beaten, especially if TT can put together another draft like 2013. APRH, GB is still a contender in the NFC.

Bruce Irvin was the #15 pick in 2012. I remember a lot of folks thought the seagulls reached big time for him that year.

[pbmax]

Bruce Irvin was the #15 pick in 2012. I remember a lot of folks thought the seagulls reached big time for him that year.

He did start 12 games at OLB but if you put his 2 sacks on the Packers many of the same problems remain. He is speedy I think, so he might be able to chase.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Yes they will have to start paying top players top dollars, but it will takes a couple years before it really becomes a problem. Lets look at the next two offseasons for Settle.

Players that are free agents the next two years:

2014:

Walter Thurmond III
Golden Tate
O'Brien Schofield
Michael Robinson
Michael Morgan (rfa)
Paul McQuistan
Clinton McDonald (rfa)
Tony McDaniel
Anthony McCoy
Chris Maragos
Jeron Johnson
Lemuel Jeanpierre
Tarvaris Jackson
Steven Hauschka
Breno Giacomini
Kellen Davis
Brandon Browner
Michael Bennett
Doug Baldwin (rfa)

2015

Cliff Avril
James Carpenter
Chris Clemons
Heath Farwell
Clint Gresham
Ricardo Lockette (rfa)
Byron Maxwell
Deshawn Shead (rfa)
Richard Sherman
Malcolm Smith
Earl Thomas
Bryan Walters (rfa)
K.J. Wright

2016

Russell Wilson


Sidney Rice (2014: $8.5 million, 2015: $9 million, 2016: Free Agent)
Russell Okung (2014: $8.76 million, 2015: $4.8 million, 2016: Free Agent) 9.7 mil cap number in 2014.
Zach Miller (2014: $4.8 million (+ $1 million roster bonus), 2015: $2.8 million (+ $2 million roster bonus), 2016: Free Agent). 7 mil cap number for 2014
Marshawn Lynch ( 2014: $5 million (+ $500,000 in per-game roster bonuses), 2015: $5.5 million (+ $2 million in per-game roster bonuses), 2016: Free Agent)
Percy Harvin (Signed a six-year, $67 million contract. The deal contains $25.5 million guaranteed -- a $12 million signing bonus and Harvin's first- and second-year base salaries. 2014: $11 million, 2015: $10.5 million, 2016: $9.9 million, 2017: $9.95 million, 2018: $11.15 million, 2019: Free Agent)
Chris Clemons (2014: $7.5 million) 10 mil cap number in 2014
Red Bryant (2014: $4.5 million (+ $3 million roster bonus due on 3/14), 2015: $6 million, 2016: $7 million, 2017: Free Agent) 8.5 mil cap number in 2014
Cliff Avril (2014: $7 million, 2015: Free Agent)

With todays salary cap structure you can pay your QB and probably another 7-9 players good money. Looking at there free agents the next two offseasons I think they can keep the top players by shifting money from some players who aren't as important. I think the biggest problem they will have is losing the mid-level guys coming off rookie deals but that doesn't become a big problem for a couple more years. I think they will still be a dominate team for at least another two years and they might be able to extend that a couple years if they can keep hitting in the draft.

I believe in todays salary cap era, after you pay your elite players top dollar, it takes 1-2 years of bad drafting to see a decline (see the green bay packers 2011, 2012 drafts). I think the only thing that will keep Settle from not being a dominant team for a while is the next couple drafts going bad.

[denverYooper]

Nice summary PFMD.

Although Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are under contract in 2014, they'll be eligible to renegotiate. They'd be foolish not to push for a payday next season. Likewise, Wilson will be eligible in 2015... same story there. All of those guys are severely underpaid for their performance level and will soon be eating cap money. Sid Rice is probably gone to make room for at least one of them.

Bennett will be an interesting one to keep an eye on. He's shown up in some big spots. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley in Jax pick him off.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Nice summary PFMD.

Although Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas are under contract in 2014, they'll be eligible to renegotiate. They'd be foolish not to push for a payday next season. Likewise, Wilson will be eligible in 2015... same story there. All of those guys are severely underpaid for their performance level and will soon be eating cap money. Sid Rice is probably gone to make room for at least one of them.

Bennett will be an interesting one to keep an eye on. He's shown up in some big spots. I wouldn't be surprised to see Bradley in Jax pick him off.

I agree, Bennett is the most interesting one this offseason. I way I see it, Settles biggest problem the next year will be keeping that dominant pass rush together. Bennett is a free agent this offseason, Clemons and Arvil are next year, and Cleomons is 32 already. If they lose all three of those guys within the next year it will be interesting to see how dominant the defense is. I was shocked Malcolm Smith won MVP (b/c he was in the right place at the right time?), I thought Arvil should have been MVP. He was in Mannings face all day and was the real reason Manning threw that pick.

[Guiness]

That's a big ticket Rice is carrying to the pay window, you have to think that changes.

Harvin's 2014 salary is guaranteed, so he's around for that, and Seattle doesn't look to have a crunch next year anyways. A rough calculation though tells me that Seattle saves cap $$$ is they cut him before 2015, so he may be a casualty if they need the money.

[mraynrand]

Maybe James Jones can copycat Baldwin:

OK, y'all listen to me loud and clear," Baldwin said in his postgame news conference. "Y'all listening? Y'all hear me? For all y'all who called us, the receiving corps, average, pedestrian, appetizers -- I'm not going to say any names, but he knows who he is -- I respect what you did on the field, but stick to playing football, because your analytical skills ain't up to par yet. You need to slow down and go back and not do it half-assed and put some effort into it, because you're saying some stuff that didn't really make sense."

"That dude [Carter] who said that we were appetizers, he told me to Google him, and I did Google him, but I didn't see any Super Bowl appearances, and I also saw two losses in conference championships," Baldwin said. "I have a Super Bowl ring, and I would gladly show that to him. And if he doesn't have time to come see it, tell him he can Google it.

[pbmax]

Maybe James Jones can copycat Baldwin:

That's a great quote. But did you move or change avatars?

[mraynrand]

That's a great quote. But did you move or change avatars?

Packerrats is a copycat blog

[Bossman641]

I agree, Bennett is the most interesting one this offseason. I way I see it, Settles biggest problem the next year will be keeping that dominant pass rush together. Bennett is a free agent this offseason, Clemons and Arvil are next year, and Cleomons is 32 already. If they lose all three of those guys within the next year it will be interesting to see how dominant the defense is. I was shocked Malcolm Smith won MVP (b/c he was in the right place at the right time?), I thought Arvil should have been MVP. He was in Mannings face all day and was the real reason Manning threw that pick.

Bennett is all but gone IMO. He was huge this season and especially in the playoffs. He will get a multiyear deal somewhere.

[denverYooper]

Packerrats is a copycat blog

Packerrats is a copycat blog

[pbmax]

Don't we normally do this on April Fools?