Kaepernick entering last year of his deal

[Guiness]

Kaepernick was drafted a year ahead of Wilson, Luck and RG3, so he is entering the last year of his rookie deal. We might (probably will) see him extended this off-season.

There's been a lot of talk about what sort of 2nd contract these guys will get, especially Kap and Wilson who have been ridiculously cheap for what they provide on the field. I will be watching with interest to see how this turns out.

[Tony Oday]

$120 mil 7 years.

[Guiness]

$120 mil 7 years.

For an average of over $17M/year? Ouch, but I guess it could happen. I think 4yrs/$40M is more likely though. Not quite a prove it, but not a long term big money commitment either.

Other interesting contracts are Bradford and Suh, especially Suh who has a STUPID cap number in 2014. The Rams seem to want to keep Bradford, but he might get the same treatment as Jake Long did, where his rookie deal makes re-signing him very difficult - he has a $17M cap number this year and would cost the team $10M to release.

[smuggler]

I'm guessing 4 years 56 million

[call_me_ishmael]

Way too low. He will be a top 6-7 paid player. In 1.5 years of starting, he's been to a superbowl and seconds away from winning the NFC championship game. He will get his fat stack.

[Patler]

Way too low. He will be a top 6-7 paid player. In 1.5 years of starting, he's been to a superbowl and seconds away from winning the NFC championship game. He will get his fat stack.

I hope you are right. In fact, I hope the 49ers make him the highest paid player in the league. However, I think paying him that much will be a mistake for the 49ers. Packer fans are clouded by the way he has played against the Packers. In many of his other games, he is not nearly the same QB that he is against GB.

[Guiness]

Way too low. He will be a top 6-7 paid player. In 1.5 years of starting, he's been to a superbowl and seconds away from winning the NFC championship game. He will get his fat stack.

56M is not a fat stack? Well, I guess everything is relative...

I think smuggler's going to be pretty close to right though.

[Bossman641]

3 years 45 mil with 30 guaranteed. Gives Kaep another chance for a huge deal at the age of 29.

[Tony Oday]

$120 mil 7 years.

It's cheaper than Flacco and SF won't let him get away.

[run pMc]

I hope you are right. In fact, I hope the 49ers make him the highest paid player in the league. However, I think paying him that much will be a mistake for the 49ers. Packer fans are clouded by the way he has played against the Packers. In many of his other games, he is not nearly the same QB that he is against GB.

This.

Kaepernick is some kind of Packer-killer, but some teams have made him look like a rookie. He's a phenom athlete, and that will give a lot of teams fits, but I have reservations about his accuracy as a thrower. I think if you can keep him in the pocket and force him to make quick decisions he'll make mistakes. Not saying he's dumb, I think his accuracy would be likely get worse in a pressure pocket.

If the SF pay him 4/56 or 3/45 that's not bad for either side, but it will prevent SF from keeping their front 7 on D and the OL together.
SEA will run into the same thing with Wilson (who I think is more accurate but not elite) next off season.

[pbmax]

I suspect Patler is right and the 49ers (and most teams) do not value him as highly as Packer fans might.

I would expect then for there to be an interim deal that allows his to hit FA again before 30. So Bossman's contract sounds right, except the guarantee is probably less.

[Zool]

I suspect Patler is right and the 49ers (and most teams) do not value him as highly as Packer fans might.

I would expect then for there to be an interim deal that allows his to hit FA again before 30. So Bossman's contract sounds right, except the guarantee is probably less.

I think he might want that short term contract, but $30M guaranteed actually seems right on for a 3 year deal on a guy they want to be the franchise. I know nothing of their cap situation to know if they can fit that in. They could give him a 4th year with tons of funny money to stroke his ego.

4 years, $65M with a $20M signing bonus and the first 2 years guaranteed.

$5M
$10M
$10M
4th year balloon payment which is basically a resign him or cut him year. He gets $35 guaranteed over 3 seasons, the cap hits are pretty reasonable and you cut him in 3 years if he ends up regressing.

[denverYooper]

I suspect Patler is right and the 49ers (and most teams) do not value him as highly as Packer fans might.

I would expect then for there to be an interim deal that allows his to hit FA again before 30. So Bossman's contract sounds right, except the guarantee is probably less.

You think he might take that interim deal? If it is short (3 yrs or less) then I'd expect he might look for at least 30 g'teed, maybe a bit more. His elite skill is his ability to run the ball and that will probably start to go around 30. If his legs are all he really has at the end of a deal, then he might not stand to get paid all that well on the next contract. It would be a bit of a gamble for him to not seek to maximize his gains based on his greatest asset currently (his legs).

Zool's numbers look a little closer to me.

[pbmax]

You think he might take that interim deal? If it is short (3 yrs or less) then I'd expect he might look for at least 30 g'teed, maybe a bit more. His elite skill is his ability to run the ball and that will probably start to go around 30. If his legs are all he really has at the end of a deal, then he might not stand to get paid all that well on the next contract. It would be a bit of a gamble for him to not seek to maximize his gains based on his greatest asset currently (his legs).

Zool's numbers look a little closer to me.

He might not like it, but he doesn't have the rock solid case that Wilson now has, or Rodgers or Flacco. Ryan and Stafford muddy that comparison though.

It all depends on what his agent judges to be out there waiting for him. He is essentially a 1.5 year starter. I completely understand the case to strike while the iron is hot, but with a short deal he has time to hit FA again.

I sense his situation is more analogous to Rodgers second deal than his third. Ryan had a ton of starts before his second deal; what about Stafford? Is he on his second deal?

EDIT: Yes, Stafford is on second deal and had 45 starts prior to signing it.

So Kap might be hamstrung by time as a starter. he could Flacco it, and play out the string and try to hit it big. Seattle or no, not a terrible bet with that team.

[bobblehead]

I hope you are right. In fact, I hope the 49ers make him the highest paid player in the league. However, I think paying him that much will be a mistake for the 49ers. Packer fans are clouded by the way he has played against the Packers. In many of his other games, he is not nearly the same QB that he is against GB.

My thoughts exactly. He is not great. He doesn't read D's. He still uses the GPS on his wrist suggesting he can't master a gameplan during the week. The guy is ok, but paying him top 10 in the league would hamper the whiners.