Shield's testing the market

[KYPack]

it happens with almost every deal the second the agent announces the deal, its not until days or even weeks later that the media digs up the true value

here' an example, mario williams

from NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...h-sixyear-deal



heres the real breakdown that came out later from profootballtalk http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...williams-deal/



so even though it was announced as 50 million "guaranteed", so of the money was in the form of roster bonuses that were due in later years. my inderstanding of it is, he could have been cut last offseason and only get 24.9 of that "guaranteed" 50 million dollars

and before anyone talks about how the team would be able to cut him in 2013 due to cap reasons, yes they could have. cutting williams last year would have resulted in a penalty that was 1.5 million or so more then his cap number would have been if on the team

hell, he's due a 10.6 million dollar roster bonus right now that was part of that original "guaranteed" money

OK Red, you're starting to wander back into camp reality. You got so far afield there for a awhile, I thought we going to have to send the dogs out after you. The quick way to analyze any NFL signing is the signing bonus and the first years salary. That's the guaranteed dough. The rest is all newspaper and media bullshit. There are NO guaranteed contracts in the NFL. They are series of one year contracts. You must make the roster to collect the agreed year's salary.

Louis Delmas, Cullen Jenkins and a handful of other players have gotten totally screwed by this little nuance in NFL deals. The teams, players, and agents well know what is real money and what is paper funny money. Only the fans get all heated up by the artificial amounts listed by the media at signing. Everybody waits to see what the real value of a deal is.

[packer4life]

Is Sam worth $11M if we tag him? Our D needs good players but is Shields really worth this kind of coin? From what I hear the FA market might be flooded by corners so if we lose Sam maybe we could end up with somebody better in the end.

Vontae Davis, Aqib Talib, Alterraun Verner, and Rogers-Cromartie

All 4 CBs have better name recognition than SS and figure to go quickly in the first week of FA. Shields may be close to as good as these guys, but don't forget what hurts him is he plays for a defense with a nationally poor reputation. Secondly he is an UDFA whereas 3 of the 4 listed above were first round picks (verner was a 4th rounder). DRC is 6'2 and Talib is 6'1. Throw in the fact that Revis is also being dangled around in trade talks and you essentially have a market flooded with marquee CBs.

Face it folks, Sam Shields is gonna get the leftovers. Drew will try to get him the most $$$ by waiting until FA for bids. At the end of the day we will value him most and come through w a fair deal averaging around 6.5 mill.

[pbmax]

OK Red, you're starting to wander back into camp reality. You got so far afield there for a awhile, I thought we going to have to send the dogs out after you. The quick way to analyze any NFL signing is the signing bonus and the first years salary. That's the guaranteed dough. The rest is all newspaper and media bullshit. There are NO guaranteed contracts in the NFL. They are series of one year contracts. You must make the roster to collect the agreed year's salary.

This.

Usually the difference between the funny numbers and the actual contract is about 3-5 days. Once its filed with the NFLPA, any agent can look it up and it can get to the media. Problem is, not every contract gets that kind of scrutiny. And that is the question I have always had about spotrac and the other sites and their contract numbers, how quickly and accurately do they get the real numbers?

[Patler]

it happens with almost every deal the second the agent announces the deal, its not until days or even weeks later that the media digs up the true value

here' an example, mario williams

from NFL.com http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d...h-sixyear-deal



heres the real breakdown that came out later from profootballtalk http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...williams-deal/



so even though it was announced as 50 million "guaranteed", so of the money was in the form of roster bonuses that were due in later years. my inderstanding of it is, he could have been cut last offseason and only get 24.9 of that "guaranteed" 50 million dollars

and before anyone talks about how the team would be able to cut him in 2013 due to cap reasons, yes they could have. cutting williams last year would have resulted in a penalty that was 1.5 million or so more then his cap number would have been if on the team

hell, he's due a 10.6 million dollar roster bonus right now that was part of that original "guaranteed" money

Well, the difference between you and me is that I pretty much ignore the first day announcement. It rarely has any foundation, and often even has the length wrong, let alone financial details. By day 2 or 3 it is usually clear.

What the heck does "...guaranteed for injury only at time of signing" mean? He's covered if he hurts himself while signing the contract? Guaranteed against a severe paper cut?

[bobblehead]

what happens if a team like dallas or washington comes in and offers him a huge contract with a lot of funny money in the last 3 years?

two years ago the game branden carr a 5 year 50 million dollar deal, its actually a 2 year 12 million dollar deal, where the cowboys can now cut him without too much of a penalty

washington two years ago gave josh morgan a 5 year 32 million dollar deal. the team had an option to opt out of the last three years that they used as soon as they could. the deal turned out to be a 2 year, 11 million dollar deal

TT doesn't do a lot of funny money deals, so if we end up matching a 5 year 40 or 50 million dollar deal that someone else has offered, then we're probably going to be on the hook for a whole hell of a lot more money then the other team would have been

You really have a low opinion of TT. So your opinion at this point is that if some team offers Sam a funny money deal, TT is going to match the number, but guarantee the entire deal?? Seriously?

[pbmax]

Everyone needs to calm down. Sam Shields hasn't gone from a $6 million per year CB to an $11 mpy in a week.

The hangup before was upfront and guaranteed money. You know Ted has a number in mind.

Rosenhaus now knows the cap has gone up by even more than expected and he got some interest in Sam. He is also an expert at manipulating the media, being happy to make himself look like the bad guy, to get the best deal for his client.

I doubt these techniques work on Ted, they mainly work on panicky GMs and owners who just want it done and don't care about the details.

The question is will someone overbid the Packers in FA? Nothing has changed, Shields bet on himself and it might payoff, though I agree with P4L that its no slam dunk he will strike it rich.

Also think about this: if you now believe the D suffers from round pegs in square holes, Shields is a round peg. He doesn't play zone well and gives Capers less flexibility. Shields and Williams in man puts more pressure on the deep safety when there is no pass rush, which there has not been. And there has not been a FS playing well in over a year.

He was UDFA with a specialty. There is Williams, House, Hayward and Hyde to step in (that's more than Ted usually has in stock when he lets someone go) plus whoever gets drafted, UDFA'd. I love Shields because as an ex receiver, when he had a chance to make a play, he made it, but there are better players out there.

There is a reason he is not guaranteed to make more money than Tramontana even though Tramontana has played like death warmed over for 2.5 of the last three seasons.

[bobblehead]

McGinn thought the GBP would sing Pickett. yeah, I'd take JJ back if he gets back from the neck procedure.

As far as your point that teams could offer Shield a gimmicked contract, but we'd have to come across with real dollars to match it?

Good God man, have you taken leave of your senses?

If teams offer funny money deals, the negotiations take place discussing the real money in the deals, not the "newspaper" value.

The only figures worth talking about are the guaranteed portion of the deals.

The rest is all bullshit.

I think full blown TT derangement syndrome has set in KY. No other explanation.

[bobblehead]

even guaranteed money is funny these day. we hear about guys that sign a 60 million dollar deal with 30 of it guaranteed. then we see the deal, and theres a 5 million dollar signing bonus, and the first years salary is fully guaranteed, another 5 million. then theres a 20 million dollar roster bonus due at the beginning of year 3, when his salary is also 15 million.

guess whos gonna be got before year three and not see that 20 million dollar "guaranteed" money?

and the players don't care about real vs funny money, thats why these asshole sign these deals. its all ego

look at the jennings dal last year. minnesota gave him like a dollar more then we offered him so he could save face and say he was going to the highest bidder, but its all funny money. jennings probably won't see the last 3 years of that deal, yet he probably would have in green bay. jennings took the deal that looked better in the headlines

when players go from one team to the next, they're not telling team A that team B offered then a 5 year 50 million dollar deal with 45 of that million coming in the last 2 years. he's going to tell team A that team B offered 5 years 50 million period

its not public knowledge until well after the player signs just how good these deals are. so in my example, team A has no clue if the offer the player got from team B is legit, or full of fake money

Then that negates the entire premise that TT told him to go test the market and we will match an offer. If you can't verify an offer, you are taking the players word...which puts you right back to the theory that you are setting a price and sticking to it and other teams don't actually affect things much.

[pbmax]

What the heck does "...guaranteed for injury only at time of signing" mean? He's covered if he hurts himself while signing the contract? Guaranteed against a severe paper cut?

Actually, I think that is a real thing. Its guaranteed for injury in early years, but at some point, if on roster, will automatically becomes fully guaranteed.

You get hurt, it pays at the specified date regardless. You stay healthy and on roster, it becomes a full guarantee. The incentive for the team to be decisive about the deal and pay/release the player at a known date is obvious. What I have forgotten is whether there is any risk the player shares besides a shorter contract.

[bobblehead]

most of my anger comes from shields agents quote about them looking for a deal like tim jennings. if thats the deal they were looking for (4 years 22.5 million) then there's no excuse for that being done. oh course if they were really looking for 9 or 10 million a year or so, then its a different story

but if we did refuse to pay our top corner 5.5 million a year, when we have no problem paying our 2nd (and after next year maybe the 3rd or 4th best) cb on the team 9.5 million this year. then i'm gonna be pretty furious

losing shields makes this team worse, not better imo. we're suppose to be trying to get better,not worse, and we have the cap space to prevent that

I will concede that if SS signs for 4 years 22.5 million then TT dropped the ball. Since SS is testing FA I really don't believe that agent in this case. TT would have locked him up already for that deal imo.

[Patler]

Actually, I think that is a real thing. Its guaranteed for injury in early years, but at some point, if on roster, will automatically becomes fully guaranteed.

You get hurt, it pays at the specified date regardless. You stay healthy and on roster, it becomes a full guarantee. The incentive for the team to be decisive about the deal and pay/release the player at a known date is obvious. What I have forgotten is whether there is any risk the player shares besides a shorter contract.

Ya, I get that, but when it is "at the time of signing" it becomes instantly guaranteed, so why bother with specifying a condition/date?

[Joemailman]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap200...gents-for-2014

A list of the 25 top free agents has Shields as the #6 CB. This would seem to reduce the chances that he will receive an offer on Day 1 that is for much more than he's worth. TT should have a decent chance at working out a deal with Shields or someone of comparable ability.

[pittstang5]

Everyone needs to calm down. Sam Shields hasn't gone from a $6 million per year CB to an $11 mpy in a week.

The hangup before was upfront and guaranteed money. You know Ted has a number in mind.

Rosenhaus now knows the cap has gone up by even more than expected and he got some interest in Sam. He is also an expert at manipulating the media, being happy to make himself look like the bad guy, to get the best deal for his client.

I doubt these techniques work on Ted, they mainly work on panicky GMs and owners who just want it done and don't care about the details.

The question is will someone overbid the Packers in FA? Nothing has changed, Shields bet on himself and it might payoff, though I agree with P4L that its no slam dunk he will strike it rich.

Also think about this: if you now believe the D suffers from round pegs in square holes, Shields is a round peg. He doesn't play zone well and gives Capers less flexibility. Shields and Williams in man puts more pressure on the deep safety when there is no pass rush, which there has not been. And there has not been a FS playing well in over a year.

He was UDFA with a specialty. There is Williams, House, Hayward and Hyde to step in (that's more than Ted usually has in stock when he lets someone go) plus whoever gets drafted, UDFA'd. I love Shields because as an ex receiver, when he had a chance to make a play, he made it, but there are better players out there.

There is a reason he is not guaranteed to make more money than Tramontana even though Tramontana has played like death warmed over for 2.5 of the last three seasons.

Thanks for talking me down off the ledge PB.

The biggest issue for me is that we have alot, I mean ALOT of players that might not be back due to FA plus other circumstances...injury, etc. (Finley & Jolly). We could lose them all. Shields, to me, is priority number one and if we keep him, for me, it softens the blow of losing players like Neal, Finley, Jolly and even Raji to some extent.

There were some positive rumors about Shields, now this. But like many have said, this could be all "Talk" to get his price up or who knows what. We'll just have to wait and see.

IIRC, when Collins was a FA, his deal got done minutes or just after FA and rumors then were that he was looking to go somewhere else - again, if I remember correctly. Like most, I just wish this would get done now.

[woodbuck27]

Hmmmm, how did that work out in the Raji case?

We did negotiate with Sam during the season and couldn't get anything done. I wouldn't be surprised if TT, as in the past, said to SS you go out and get an offer and we will match it.

" I wouldn't be surprised if TT, as in the past, said to SS you go out and get an offer and we will match it. " ThunderDan

ThunderDan:

If in fact TT did that as you suggest. Then it looks to me like TT is allowing Sam Shields and his agent to do his job. TT is also sending a message to a solid CB that we love you (maybe) yet not so much.

This issue of Sam Shields and a new contract has drug on and on. it was taking way too long to get done. TT just didn't act aggressively enough to get Sam Shields inked. The Green Bay Packers have lots of Cap space and this is one player that TT could 'only' ill afford to lose. TT puts up crazy money, considering the busted contract year, in the 2013 season for BJ Baji, In contrast for a player who's valuable to our secondary, starting RCB Sam Shields. Ted Thompson demonstrates his uncanny ability to lay an egg.

ThunderDan you believe it's something like this;

Ted Thompson ( Russ Ball) to CB Sam Shields (his Agent).

" We feel we offered you a fair contract... we love you in Green Bay, but we can 'only pay you this much money ($whatever$). So Sam ( Sam's agent) go out and test FA to see what your worth. You deserve to know that Sam. Maybe...entertain offers from NFL teams that want /need you more than we do. Set your bar and then before you sign with that team. Come back here Sam because we do love you so much, that we'll match the other teams offer for your services.

The risks of such a plan...no plan by Ted Thompson is obvious ThunderDan.

That scenario you suggest ThunderDan is at at best ..... " Ted Thompson coping out ".

The real scenario that we all see finally and as it appeared to be going down. Is that the Green Bay Packers; " in all likelihood ", lost a very decent CB from a very bad Packer secondary, that's now headed for more challenges in the 2014 season.

Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy's much hailed " Draft and Develop Program" is about to take another hit. The funny thing is that you could see this from a long ways off; yet what are we really seeing here?

Is it Ted Thompson in some mode of self destruction and blowing up the Green Bay Packers. Ted Thompson is one very strange man. Then again... this is what I've come to expect from him.

A little more of ... NOTHING from Ted Thompson. A little more of what could have been. It's really sad to observe.


GO PACK GO !

[red]

Well, the difference between you and me is that I pretty much ignore the first day announcement. It rarely has any foundation, and often even has the length wrong, let alone financial details. By day 2 or 3 it is usually clear.

What the heck does "...guaranteed for injury only at time of signing" mean? He's covered if he hurts himself while signing the contract? Guaranteed against a severe paper cut?

well there is the problem, and this response is to bobble too

that first days announcement usually comes from the players agent, thats what he wants the world to know what his client got. IMO, thats what he would tell other GM's that are interested

we find out real numbers days after the fact. if SS gets an offer from someone with lets say a roster bonus in year 3 or 4, SS and his agent aren't going to come to TT and say that the deal has a roster bonus in year 3, they're going to do what all agents do (like in the mario williams example) and tell TT they got this deal on the table with this much in "guaranteed" money

TT, if he wants to keep the guy, then has to figure out on his own if the player and his agent are bluffing, or if the deal is real