Favorite Mid-Late Round Safety

[HarveyWallbangers]

ESPN has him 7th overall at S (no designation between FS and SS) and 116th overall (which puts him in about the 4th round range), and even their rankings are a bit old.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft/positions/_/id/93

Attention grabbing workout at Combine. At just shy of 6-feet and 200 pounds, ran a 4.47 40-yard dash, a 4.07 short-shuttle and a 6.90 three-cone. Also had 25 reps on bench press with a 34-inch VJ and 9-9 BJ.

Team captain. Loves the game and knows what it takes to be a pro. Good student; held 4.4 GPA in high school. Split time between safety and cornerback during his career.

Has versatility as a FS/CB/NB type. Has played all over secondary. Quick feet and balance in pedal. Above average man-to-man coverage skills for a safety. Good range in zone. Has some tightness in hips and can lose a bit of ground in transition, but accelerates out of turn and shows very good catch up speed when carrying WRs vertically.

Good range vs. run plays sideline-to-sideline and pursues hard. Not afraid to fill and support. More powerful than frame indicates. Will step up and take on much bigger lead blockers when necessary. Struggles to anchor, but can at least occupy blocker and funnel ball carrier back inside. Leaves feet as a tackler a bit too often but sticks to ball carriers once he makes contact. Strong upper body. Finds ways to get ball carrier to ground. Closes in a flash and makes some tough open-field tackles look easy.

NFL.com has him 5th overall at S (no designation between FS and SS).

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2014/tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:s

STRENGTHS Very good athlete with fluid movement skills and good range. Competes hard. Runs the alley and can negotiate traffic. Good zone awareness and route recognition. Understands angles and leverage. Can carry receivers in man coverage with little wasted movement in transition on speed turns. Good leaping ability. Very smart, motivated, team player with a passion for the game. Can line up the defense. Outstanding work ethic. Contributes as a gunner on special teams. Has NFL pedigree [Brother Shane plays for New England; Father Henry was drafted by Tampa Bay].

WEAKNESSES Has tiny hands, short arms and lacks overall bulk. Does not have ideal length to match up with NFL tight ends in coverage. Not an explosive hitter or forceful tackler. Hands are suspect -- smothers the ball and has just four career interceptions. Long-term durability could be a concern.

DRAFT PROJECTION Rounds 3-4

BOTTOM LINE A very smart, pedigreed, rangy free safety with the athletic ability and cover skill desired on the back end. Lack of size and tackling strength could leave much to be desired when defending the run. Top-notch intangibles -- toughness, instincts, competitiveness and leadership ability -- should allow him to quickly emerge as a defensive leader and enhance his draft status.

[pbmax]

NFL.com rankings have 17 safeties between 5.3 and 5.0. That's a lot of players with similar value. There is even 3 more if you look from 4.9 to 5.5.

A lot of possible variation depending on preference, whether you see him at one position or another and scheme fit.

Perhaps a better question is based on the 8 point scouting grades, where does 5.3 usually put you? Which round?

[run pMc]

NFL.com rankings have 17 safeties between 5.3 and 5.0. That's a lot of players with similar value. There is even 3 more if you look from 4.9 to 5.5.

A lot of possible variation depending on preference, whether you see him at one position or another and scheme fit.

Perhaps a better question is based on the 8 point scouting grades, where does 5.3 usually put you? Which round?

From NFL.com:
9.00-10 Once-in-lifetime player
8.00-8.99 Perennial All-Pro
7.50-7.99 Future All-Pro
7.00-7.49 Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.50-6.99 Chance to become Pro Bowl-caliber player
6.00-6.49 Should become instant starter
6.00-6.49 Should become instant starter
5.50-5.99 Chance to become NFL starter
5.20-5.49 NFL backup or special teams potential
5.01-5.19 Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster
5.00 50-50 Chance to make NFL roster
4.75-4.99 Should be in an NFL training camp
4.50-4.74 Chance to be in an NFL training camp
NO GRADE Likely needs time in developmental league.

Below 5 you're anywhere from being a camp body to a good PS candidate. I'd think that means (depending on where in each round you're drafting) you want your R1 to be close to a 6, R2-3 a 5.5, from there at/above a 5. I'd think below 5 you're looking at R7 or UDFA guys. Obviously, if you're drafting in top 5 or top 10 and the draft pool is average you're hopefully looking at guys ranked no lower than 7.25.

THAT's why everyone gets on A.J.Hawk (and B.J. Raji to an extent) but that's getting off topic.

[pbmax]

5.50-5.99 Chance to become NFL starter
5.20-5.49 NFL backup or special teams potential
5.01-5.19 Better-than-average chance to make NFL roster

Vereen is a 5.3. If this ranking and the definitions are true, then is the depth at safety in this year's draft the kind of depth that let's you sign a UDFA who is as good as the guy picked in rounds 3-4?

[run pMc]

Found it interesting that NFL.com has Jimmie Ward and Vinnie Sunseri rated the same. I'm pretty sure there are a few personnel departments who don't.

[run pMc]

Vereen is a 5.3. If this ranking and the definitions are true, then is the depth at safety in this year's draft the kind of depth that let's you sign a UDFA who is as good as the guy picked in rounds 3-4?

Doesn't seem like Nolan Nawrocki likes anyone much outside of HaHa, Prior, and Loston. He says Huff has good speed but should be a CB, yet calls Bucannon slow (despite having same 40 time as Huff). I think it's all in the eye of the beholder and scheme fit with these guys, and the writers moonlighting as draft gurus for NFL.com are just as clueless as the rest of us.

[run pMc]

I also think, if the NFL.com rankings are anywhere close to reasonable, it means that there's a chance you could end up just as easily with Jerron McMillian as with Kam Chancellor....not much different from a lot of drafts, I suppose.

[pbmax]

Found it interesting that NFL.com has Jimmie Ward and Vinnie Sunseri rated the same. I'm pretty sure there are a few personnel departments who don't.

One of the CBS guys mocked Ward to the Packers in the first round, similar to what red said would be needed if Ward is indeed a top of the second round grade.

[mission]

I voted Reynolds, but like Brooks better if we can get him in round 2-3 and Mosely at 21. I love Mosely. Do not want Clinton-Dix.

[red]

Vereen is a 5.3. If this ranking and the definitions are true, then is the depth at safety in this year's draft the kind of depth that let's you sign a UDFA who is as good as the guy picked in rounds 3-4?

the thinking before the combine, and before pryor came out a year early, was that this was one of the weakest drafts for safeties in recent memory

before pryor came out, there was clinton-dix, and a bunch of guys who most people thought could maybe be 3rd and 4th rounders

pryor came out and now you had 2 first round quality safeties. then the underware olympics and pro days happened, and guys doing mock draft started saying,well we got a bunch of teams that need safeties, so we'll start moving these guys up, even though we thought they were 4th rounders 2 months ago, just based on team needs

thats why i keep saying its important to get one of the big 2. there is a massive drop off in talent from those 2, back to all the others

even the big two, i don't see as pro bowler type players, i see them as just solid starters that won't suck ass

[Bretsky]

If we haven't drafted a top tier safety I want two of the above guys. Play the odds to make sure we get one worth a shit
I do like Ed Reynolds

[Bretsky]

the thinking before the combine, and before pryor came out a year early, was that this was one of the weakest drafts for safeties in recent memory

before pryor came out, there was clinton-dix, and a bunch of guys who most people thought could maybe be 3rd and 4th rounders

pryor came out and now you had 2 first round quality safeties. then the underware olympics and pro days happened, and guys doing mock draft started saying,well we got a bunch of teams that need safeties, so we'll start moving these guys up, even though we thought they were 4th rounders 2 months ago, just based on team needs

thats why i keep saying its important to get one of the big 2. there is a massive drop off in talent from those 2, back to all the others

even the big two, i don't see as pro bowler type players, i see them as just solid starters that won't suck ass

I pretty much tape every Path to the Draft show and rewatch it. For what it's worth they rate HaHa and Prior higher then Kenny Viccori, Reed, or Elam from last year.

[pbmax]

Do not want Clinton-Dix.

What do you see (or not see) that worries you? He's the one that is more FS, right?

[Pugger]

i'm thinking ward goes very late 1st early second, so if we want him, we either have to

reach a bit (which i have no problem with if the player has talent and it fixes our biggest need), and i think in this case it would

or we try and trade down,which may be next to impossible with everyone else this year wanting to trade down

or we try and trade way up with our second rounder, in which case you might have to give up our 3rd to move up far enough

I wouldn't be opposed to taking him in the first either.

[mission]

What do you see (or not see) that worries you? He's the one that is more FS, right?

I watched a lot of Alabama and he just never really stood out to me. Seem to remember more of his negative plays than his big ones.
Just doesn't impact the game like I figure the top safety in the draft should.