Why This Is Going To Be A Great Season

[denverYooper]

Sacks last year did not tell the whole story about pressure. On key downs, passers had far too long to sit and wait. The sack total could stay the same and pressure and hits could increase and the define will go up 5-8 spots in the rankings. It needs to be more constant.

This. Pass rush was boom or bust last year... and often had no boom when they really needed it. The only game last year that I can recall them getting some key pressure in critical situations was against Baltimore, when Perry and Daniels were getting after Flacco a bit. After that game, I thought maybe they were turning the corner on pass rush, but then, you know, injuries.

[hoosier]

Has everyone forgotten that the Packers tend to get out of the gate slow each year? The title of this thread should be "What will go wrong in the first quarter of the season?" Despite all the hoopla about the best OL since the early 2000s I am expecting to see Rodgers under heavy pressure Thursday.

[MadScientist]

Has everyone forgotten that the Packers tend to get out of the gate slow each year? The title of this thread should be "What will go wrong in the first quarter of the season?" Despite all the hoopla about the best OL since the early 2000s I am expecting to see Rodgers under heavy pressure Thursday.

I haven't. Every year under Campen the OL starts the season like complete dog shit. Actually dog shit might be better because at least that might slow the rush down or make them slip a bit. They always seem confused that teams don't just rush 4 with no stunts or schemes. Best hope is for Lacy to make some of those unblocked defenders to miss to take the pressure off Rodgers.

The OL gets better at the end of the season, and that, combined with some dubious stats make some people forget abut the complete cluster fuck at the beginning of the season.

[3irty1]

Has everyone forgotten that the Packers tend to get out of the gate slow each year? The title of this thread should be "What will go wrong in the first quarter of the season?" Despite all the hoopla about the best OL since the early 2000s I am expecting to see Rodgers under heavy pressure Thursday.

There are exceptions. Clay usually has 90% of his sacks by week 8.

[3irty1]

Pass rush wasn't really that big a problem last year - when dunderdummy dialed up blitzes. We had a goodly number of sacks.

But the secondary was a monstrous mess, and Capers would routinely follow up a blitz and sack, with a 3 man rush that generated no pressure, and there would be receivers running wide open all over the field. 3rd and 14 after a sack, was a very makable conversion for our opponents b/c of how Capers called his defense.

We got absolutely run over in the running game, and our back end was a mess - getting run over in the running game, I put all of that on Capers; the mess in the secondary is not all Capers fault, but at the end of the day - he is the general, and that is where the responsibility lies.

Hopefully MM has read him the riot act, and the influx of Clinton-Dix, and the maturation of the 2nd and 3rd year guys will be enough for us to realize some improvement.

Disagree that the passrush was good enough last year. We couldn't get there with 4 and often couldn't get there with blitzes leaving powerplays in the backfield. Even our shitty secondary last year was better than anything the Giants won their last two superbowls with. The difference is that they had an endless stream of fresh stud passrushers to hose down their pedestrian linebackers and secondary with febreze. They could stay effective against the run with run by using those same stud passrushers to 1-gap.

I can see our front 7 using a similar strategy to keep the pressure up with Matthews, Peppers, Neal, Perry, Daniels, and Jones. Our secondary will all of a sudden look like pro bowlers again. There is a lot of ball hawk potential back there.

[wist43]

Sacks last year did not tell the whole story about pressure. On key downs, passers had far too long to sit and wait. The sack total could stay the same and pressure and hits could increase and the define will go up 5-8 spots in the rankings. It needs to be more constant.

Disagree that the passrush was good enough last year. We couldn't get there with 4 and often couldn't get there with blitzes leaving powerplays in the backfield. Even our shitty secondary last year was better than anything the Giants won their last two superbowls with. The difference is that they had an endless stream of fresh stud passrushers to hose down their pedestrian linebackers and secondary with febreze. They could stay effective against the run with run by using those same stud passrushers to 1-gap.

I can see our front 7 using a similar strategy to keep the pressure up with Matthews, Peppers, Neal, Perry, Daniels, and Jones. Our secondary will all of a sudden look like pro bowlers again. There is a lot of ball hawk potential back there.

Rushing 3 is the same as rushing none - and static 4 man rushes, i.e. 2 DL, and 2 OLB's, without prensap movement or stunts are easy enough to block, as the OL knows exactly what is coming, and who is coming. At that point, it is all about physical ability - absent any presnap deception, or attempts to manuever the OL out of position, by missing an adjustment.

You can't blitz every snap, and you can't stunt, zone blitz, etc, on every snap - but what we've been witness to with Capers is hell bent for leather blitzes on 2nd down, backed up by 3 man rushes on 3rd down - combined with heavy doses of static rushes most of the time. It's easy to block, the QB has forever, and the secondary gets picked apart.

It is true that at some point our guy has to defeat their guy - but there are a lot of things the DC can do to assist in that.

Capers is capable of dialing up some beautiful blitzes - but his nature is to is to take his foot off the pedal, and sit back in hopes of a pick or incompletion.

As for the "front seven"... we don't have a front seven, we have a front six... and therein lies a lot of the problem with being able to generate consistent pressure when the opposition is passing on run downs - the "jumbo nickel" was a complete disaster in terms of generating any pressure at all, b/c the 2 fat guys in the middle were there to stop the run - the opposing OC, QB, and OL all knew it would essentially be a 2 man rush, i.e. the 2 OLB's flying upfield while the fat guys in the middle just played the dancing bear game.

What you end up with is the worst of all worlds - an insufficient number of players in the box to deal with the run; fat guys that can't rush the passer on run/pass downs, and predictable rushes out of static fronts.

[MadScientist]

Capers is capable of dialing up some beautiful blitzes - but his nature is to is to take his foot off the pedal, and sit back in hopes of a pick or incompletion.

As for the "front seven"... we don't have a front seven, we have a front six... and therein lies a lot of the problem with being able to generate consistent pressure when the opposition is passing on run downs - the "jumbo nickel" was a complete disaster in terms of generating any pressure at all, b/c the 2 fat guys in the middle were there to stop the run - the opposing OC, QB, and OL all knew it would essentially be a 2 man rush, i.e. the 2 OLB's flying upfield while the fat guys in the middle just played the dancing bear game.

What you end up with is the worst of all worlds - an insufficient number of players in the box to deal with the run; fat guys that can't rush the passer on run/pass downs, and predictable rushes out of static fronts.

Even with all that, it still would have a decent shot at working if both OLB's have the ability to beat a single blocker consistently. Otherwise all LB's need to be able to cover so you can just randomly choose which two to send.

Of course combining an ineffective pass rush with at least one safety out of place makes for a defense that will at best lose in the first round, if the team makes it to the playoffs.

This year both the rush and the safety play should be better, regardless of which formation is used.

[3irty1]

The 3 man rush is frustrating as hell when it fails but it definitely has a place. On those instances where the QB has a planned 5 step drop and quick hitter, the 3 man rush is what you want as no amount of pass rush will get there anyways, might as well put a dude in a passing lane. Definitely part of the chess match of play calling, switching between blitzes and 3 man rushes is the kind of guessing you have to do more often when you can't get good pressure with 4 men and zero tricks.

That's not a fair assessment of the "Jumbo Nickel." When Charles Woodson is your nickelback you've got 7 in the box, when Raji pulled his weight he also provided a good push up the middle despite being a big body. That was a scheme that fit the players perfectly and was very successful. It didn't make sense to keep doing it once the personnel changed but any scheme is flawed with the wrong guys.

I don't see a way to have a decent defense without being able to have a front 4 that can get to the QB without simply winning their one-on-ones. Most of the nickel packages out there are exactly that coming from the 4-2. BTW, looks like we can expect to see some 4-2 in obvious passing situations. We've been showing it all preseason.

[pbmax]

3 man rush is not a problem when its 3rd and forever as long as you can play effective zone behind it. Capers has done it and the problem has been the coverage behind it. Arizona tore it apart by running shallow crossing routes and just running for the first down.

However, this defense is designed to send 5 and force a quick throw and tackle. The former set of DBs and the terrible team tackling have made that approach a shambles prior to last year. Hyde, Richardson, Banjo, Hayward and (astonishingly) an improved Shields make it more likely this year. It worked several times last year.

[wist43]

The 3 man rush is frustrating as hell when it fails but it definitely has a place. On those instances where the QB has a planned 5 step drop and quick hitter, the 3 man rush is what you want as no amount of pass rush will get there anyways, might as well put a dude in a passing lane. Definitely part of the chess match of play calling, switching between blitzes and 3 man rushes is the kind of guessing you have to do more often when you can't get good pressure with 4 men and zero tricks.

3 man rush doesn't have a place anytime, anywhere, for any supposed reason.

Besides, it's illegal in most states - that's how fucking stupid it is.

In fact, this is a little known biblical fact - when Moses descended from Mount Sinai, he had 3 tablets, not 2... and the 11th commandment was: "Thou shalt never, ever, rush 3. Unfortunately, Moses dropped and broke the 3rd tablet, and those gems of wisdom have been lost forever.

In all of American cinema, only the great biblical scholar, Mel Brooks, has depicted this truth in film!!!

That's not a fair assessment of the "Jumbo Nickel." When Charles Woodson is your nickelback you've got 7 in the box, when Raji pulled his weight he also provided a good push up the middle despite being a big body. That was a scheme that fit the players perfectly and was very successful. It didn't make sense to keep doing it once the personnel changed but any scheme is flawed with the wrong guys.

My assessment of the jumbo nickel was in light of using it with the wrong guys - that's the point; our personnel don't fit what dunderdummy is trying to do at all, yet he plows ahead doing the same shit - with disasterous results.

If you were to run the jumbo nickel - and you suspect that it is at least 50/50 possibility of run, then I'd run blitz out of that alignment more often than not; if it's a pass?? just keep on keepin on after the QB.

That said, I wouldn't run the jumbo nickel at all anyway... I'd be in base.

[pbmax]

Actually true about Moses. I have the game film. However, actual 3rd tablet was lost like an iPad playbook dropped on the sidewalk.

[3irty1]

3 man rush doesn't have a place anytime, anywhere, for any supposed reason.

Besides, it's illegal in most states - that's how fucking stupid it is.

In fact, this is a little known biblical fact - when Moses descended from Mount Sinai, he had 3 tablets, not 2... and the 11th commandment was: "Thou shalt never, ever, rush 3. Unfortunately, Moses dropped and broke the 3rd tablet, and those gems of wisdom have been lost forever.

In all of American cinema, only the great biblical scholar, Mel Brooks, has depicted this truth in film!!!



My assessment of the jumbo nickel was in light of using it with the wrong guys - that's the point; our personnel don't fit what dunderdummy is trying to do at all, yet he plows ahead doing the same shit - with disasterous results.

If you were to run the jumbo nickel - and you suspect that it is at least 50/50 possibility of run, then I'd run blitz out of that alignment more often than not; if it's a pass?? just keep on keepin on after the QB.

That said, I wouldn't run the jumbo nickel at all anyway... I'd be in base.

The existence of a 3 man rush doesn't bother me. I've seen it work. You could say its overused or something with evidence to back that claim but its stupid to talk about a sound strategy in absolutes.

We share the same complaint on the jumbo nickel then. It should have been limited to the gimmick section of the playbook once Woodson left. They did a remarkable job at replacing Woodson with Hayward and then Hyde but the fact that the plan was to just find a new player to replace a hall of fame veteran in the scheme built around him is foolish. Raji's decline rotted the foundation of that scheme even worse. Whatever the new schemes and wrinkles are this year I hope they aren't dependent on any one guy. Thats a high variance way of coaching. Good for making DPOY out of Jason Taylor and Charles Woodson but miserable when you're defensive game plan is tied to a couple of fragile hamstrings.

[pbmax]

If you were to run the jumbo nickel - and you suspect that it is at least 50/50 possibility of run, then I'd run blitz out of that alignment more often than not; if it's a pass?? just keep on keepin on after the QB.

... That said, I wouldn't run the jumbo nickel at all anyway... I'd be in base.

If you blitz on 2nd or 3rd and short, you are going to hemorrhage big plays, especially given the play of the players in the middle of the D, from safeties to ILBs.

A quick throw in shorter yardage situations doesn't give the D an advantage. Maybe with new safeties, you could trust this D to hold it, we'll see.

I'll say this just to get it on record but I half-expect to be disproven early. Brad Jones looked like he had solved the diagnosis delay he had his first two years at ILB. Now, he could just be going forward on run willy nilly, without much regard for gap or ball, but he looked faster to the play.

If it holds and he isn't exposed as simply guessing, it would make the middle of the D light years better.

BTW, if you are in base facing 3x1 (WRxTE), you are going to have a LB covering a WR. Which is what nickel was invented to prevent. You need to choose which is the greater threat and for 30 years D coordinators have said its the WR.

[Bossman641]

Reason for success - Rodgers and Lacy only played something like 25 quarters together during the regular season last year, well before Lacy hit his stride.

I'm concerned about the run D. We all know neither Hawk or Jones are great at taking on blocks. If Guion/Pennel don't hold up at NT I could easily see teams running the ball down our throats.

That said, the formula for success is pretty obvious. MM knows he has a lethal offense, hence all the no huddle. If we are able to get a lead and force teams to go to the air, we have enough pass rush and secondary to stop teams IMO.

[3irty1]

I know from watching other teams that bigger doesn't necessarily mean better against the run but its still hard to visualize a Packers team that lost Pickett, CJ Wilson, Jolly, and Raji not being a sieve.