Week 13 Other Games Thread Plus Some Bird

[pbmax]

Fun preview read here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eview-edition/

with use of both the historical team point differentials and something he has produced call QB win curves.

[pbmax]

I'm afraid those graphs have got me very cranky indeed. I'm all for integration, but this is ridiculous. It is NOT useful for looking at eras. Slopes at left end of plot are less significant than changes at right. A more interesting graph would just show margin of victory, with maybe a smoothing filter (moving average) to show era trends clearer.

Very disturbing. I'm inconsolable - don't talk to me about this again.

Thought about this again reading the preview article in OP. I think the bolded claim is wrong. Slopes at ANY points on the curve measure change in the same way and are not affected by the cumulative totals. So comparing Meredith/Staubach/Landry effect on the Cowboys to the Walsh/Montana/Young 49ers is indeed possible.

You could argue that different eras, with different rues affecting scoring make totals fluctuate, but that effect is strongly muted when considering point differentials rather than total points scored or allowed. The range may have increased over time as offense was favored, but the effect would not be as dramatic with the net figure.

[George Cumby]

Link anyone?

[King Friday]

Thought about this again reading the preview article in OP. I think the bolded claim is wrong. Slopes at ANY points on the curve measure change in the same way and are not affected by the cumulative totals. So comparing Meredith/Staubach/Landry effect on the Cowboys to the Walsh/Montana/Young 49ers is indeed possible.

You could argue that different eras, with different rues affecting scoring make totals fluctuate, but that effect is strongly muted when considering point differentials rather than total points scored or allowed. The range may have increased over time as offense was favored, but the effect would not be as dramatic with the net figure.

Technically, the slopes on the left should be MORE impactful than on the right, as teams played fewer games 40-50 years ago than they do today so they had less opportunity to gain or lose point differential. +50 points over 10 or 12 games is far more impressive than +50 points over 16 games.

However, there is also the notion that football prior to 1970 was not nearly as competitive as it is today. There were a handful of teams that dominated an era...and then you had a bunch of mediocre teams that they routinely beat like a drum. That would make a slope at the right side more impressive.

So, as usual, statistics can be successfully argued either way. Let's just be happy with the fact that Green Bay's line is currently on top.

[pbmax]

Link anyone?

Just waiting to leave for bird day festivities, so here are all the possible links you might be referring to:

Game Previews with QB curves mentioned above: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...eview-edition/

QB Curves Original Article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...dterm-edition/

NFL History Point Differential: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/...ry-of-the-nfl/

Streaming Feeds for Games (maybe you are at work): https://twitter.com/gregpunzo

PackerRats thread about Point Differential: http://packerrats.com/showthread.php...l=1#post807580

[pbmax]

Technically, the slopes on the left should be MORE impactful than on the right, as teams played fewer games 40-50 years ago than they do today so they had less opportunity to gain or lose point differential. +50 points over 10 or 12 games is far more impressive than +50 points over 16 games.

However, there is also the notion that football prior to 1970 was not nearly as competitive as it is today. There were a handful of teams that dominated an era...and then you had a bunch of mediocre teams that they routinely beat like a drum. That would make a slope at the right side more impressive.

So, as usual, statistics can be successfully argued either way. Let's just be happy with the fact that Green Bay's line is currently on top.

Games per year do matter. And that would add to the effect of scoring enhancements. I think dominant team eras though stand out in the graph visually quite well.

[George Cumby]

Thanks, PB. Looking for game link.

[King Friday]

I may choke on my turkey...but I'm hoping the Bears actually play a complete game and continue the skid for the Lions.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I just saw Kendricks from the Eagles tackle DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys by grabbing onto Murray's straight arm and hauling him down. Yes, it can be done. It was a thing of beauty. Kendricks is obviously following my posts here and learning.

[Guiness]

It looks to me like Romo should not be out there. How much pain is he in? Twice now I've seen him go down in the pocket without getting hit, and it looked like he did it because he didn't want to take the hit. He just did it with Dallas inside the 10.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Romo is very inconsistent on his passes as well. Last interception was a bad throw. Several throws before were weak.

[Guiness]

Ref should be able to assess a 'taunting' penalty to the home team for the behavior of the stadium PA system. McCoy just lost a fumble and they played a wailing car alarm sound effect. How is that not taunting?

edit: reversed the call, not that it matters

[pbmax]

Backing up for a second: are the injuries on the O line the problem with the Bears O? Because it looked futile for the last 3 quarters and the players all looked like they had seen this movie before. Protection wasn't great but watching on and off again I kept wondering if they have lost confidence in Cutler or the play call?

[pbmax]

Teams I worry about: Seattle, maybe San Fran, maybe Arizona, maybe Eagles

Team I no longer worry about: Dallas

[pittstang5]

Today's games outcomes are not going how I wanted them to.