How Will The Packers Do In The Postseason?

[hoosier]

There is no proof, just opinions. I'm especially disinterested in season long stats. I give weight to opinions by football experts who have been watching recent games.

Doink. So it's all turtles, all the way down. But then how do you get from your mere opinion, which is fashioned on the mere opinions of others, to something that sounds suspiciously like a truth claim?

Seattle looks even better than last year at home. Packers will have to play well just to have a puncher's chance.

Whether comparing teams at any point in a given season boils down to just opinion or can be measured scientifically is beside the point, because they will only meet once (if that) and even that result will not be conclusive proof that the better team won. But once we get past that fairly obvious point, my question is, why do you trust what Howie Long and James Brown say more that what Max (or DVOA) says? Which one do you think has more predicative value?

[Harlan Huckleby]

You've raised many interesting epistemological questions. Perhaps we can meet for drinks later and discuss.

There will be proof, it will be in the pudding. I'd say Seattle's first playoff game will tell a lot. Playoff games show a lot more than regular season. See Ohio State blowout of Badgers after unimpressive earlier wins.

Here's a truth you can accept for now: anybody who is certain about how tough Seattle willl be is full of shit.

[pbmax]

Strength of schedule supports your opinion, but it doesn't prove it. Your use of capital letters is inflammatory. Curb your enthusiasm.

Football Outsiders, total DVOA for Seattle D (DVOA is measured by O success, so for D, negative is good):

2014: -16.3

2013: -25.9

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef2013

[pbmax]

I give weight to opinions by football experts who have been watching recent games.

Weighted DVOA (weighted to emphasize most recent games):

2014: -19.8

2013: -30.0

[Harlan Huckleby]

pbmax, you are missing my point.
I do not have a strong opinion about whether you are right or wrong.
I disagree with your sense of certainty. I'm saying that statistical measures are suspect. And you come back with the stats that have already been cited.

The Badgers were favorites against Ohio State, based on previous performances. A few analysts said that was ridiculous.
The Badgers were said to have a great D. I thought that was silly.

Football is not very predictable.

Whether the Seattle defense is better this year or not going into playoffs is subjective opinion, requiring the weighing of many intangibles.

It is uncertain whether Seattle will dominate defensively. I don't have a strong sense, but I think the people picking a Tenacious D will be right.

[woodbuck27]

http://www.nfl.com/teams/statistics?team=SEA

Seattle Seahawks

The Final 6 Weeks of the season:

Week 12 Nov 23 WIN Cardinals 03 - Seahawks 19


Week 13 Nov 27 WIN On The Road Seahawks 19 - 49ers 03


Week 14 Dec 07 WIN On The Road Seahawks 24 - Eagles 14


Week 15 Dec 14 WIN 49ers 07 - Seahawks 17


Week 16 Dec 21 WIN Seahawks 35 - Cardinals 06


Week 17 Dec 28 WIN Rams 06 - Seahawks 20

In the last six weeks Seattle has allowed 'ONLY 39 Points'.

I'm aware that no NFL Team allowed fewer than the 33 points that the Seahawks allowed in the Week 12 thru Week 16 games; since the 2005 Season on any five game stretch.

In that five game stretch Week 12-16. The Seattle Seahawk Defense rose from the NO. 12 position in the NFL Ranking to NO.1 slot in points allowed.

That's a lot to overcome and seriously believe any NFL team is going to travel to their house and defeat them.

If your a Packer fan. I believe that the best way to see Green Bay Packers and Super Bowl Champion again is to simply:

B - E - L - I - E - V - E.



GO PACKERS ! GO PACK GO !!

[woodbuck27]

pbmax, you are missing my point.
I do not have a strong opinion about whether you are right or wrong.
I disagree with your sense of certainty. I'm saying that statistical measures are suspect. And you come back with the stats that have already been cited.

The Badgers were favorites against Ohio State, based on previous performances. A few analysts said that was ridiculous.
The Badgers were said to have a great D. I thought that was silly.

Football is not very predictable.

Whether the Seattle defense is better this year or not going into playoffs is subjective opinion, requiring the weighing of many intangibles.

It is uncertain whether Seattle will dominate defensively. I don't have a strong sense, but I think the people picking a Tenacious D will be right.

I recorded St. Louis @ Seattle and did so when the score was tied 6-6.

The final score was 20-6 Seattle and it was clear to me that their 'D' won that game.

The Seattle defense is very very good ! Gut churning (if you not a Seahawk fan) good.

In the NFL and especially given the Packer offense and 'first things first' as the Green Bay Packers need to win @ Lambeau Field to go anywhere; anything is possible.

I just hope for Packers @ Seattle and that chance to overcome this solid Seattle Defense.

[denverYooper]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

That's obvious. They still have a lot of speed to the ball and their back 7 are very good tacklers. But their DL, despite Bennett being a terror at times, has fallen off some. Losing Mebane surely hurt.

[mraynrand]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

They are a hard-hitting, fearsome defense, but they feast on bad QB play and errors. For example, against the Rams. Shawn Hill is a fantastic journeyman QB, and played quite well in Seattle. Two huge errors - a juggled reception went for a pick six and a fumble going in for a TD (through the end zone for a touchback) amounted to a 14 point difference. Otherwise the game was extremely tight.

[woodbuck27]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

That's obvious. They still have a lot of speed to the ball and their back 7 are very good tacklers. But their DL, despite Bennett being a terror at times, has fallen off some. Losing Mebane surely hurt.

In terms of SACKS the Packers were 9th with 41 and Seattle 20th with 37.


** Looking at he Defense overall:

https://encrypted-tbn1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQGm2R34EwS_iJjAd6aQE8-ufaXPv8BKQe_KtFZeYOw46FmKbtj

** Defensive Drive Stat's:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef

** Defensive Yards Per Game Green Bay Vs Seattle:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/335/green-bay-packers/#Defensive%20Yards$361$SeasonMax=9999&SeasonMin=19 90


** ' Toxic Differential ' - Green Bay Packers Vs Seattle Seahawks:

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/teams/335/green-bay-packers/#Toxic%20Differential$361$SeasonMax=5000&SeasonMin =1990


** Quality Statistics Power ranking:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/18/Overall/

** Defensive Hog Index:

http://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/stats/2014/Final/DHI/

All this convinces me that TT should again concentrate most of his picks in the 2015 Draft on improving/solidifying the Teams Defensive DEPTH for the Green Bay Packer future.

We need to see a more aggressive, faster and stronger defense on the Green Bay Packers

A lot RE: the Offense depends on TT signing Randall Cobb. After that becoming a reality:

I'd like to see TT strengthen the teams depth at a) OL b) RB c) WR and then d) TE.

GO PACK GO !

[Packers4Glory]

my dream situation would be Arizona and Detroit both winning.

we will have issues beating Dallas, Carolina, and Seattle if Rodgers mobility is severely hampered.

[Packers4Glory]

Not going to read his article, but he's probably right. The AFC is super weak this year, so the Broncos will probably survive the divisional round. Meanwhile, there is no possible way for the Seahawks to play the Cowboys, as the top seed. Meaning that they will likely advance to the NFC Championship game.

I just read it and basically no reason was given why GB is most likely. it's a walking contradiction actually. for example:

But the other two teams—Green Bay and Denver, in that order—are prime candidates to taste quick defeat.

All things being equal, Denver is the ripest for an upset. Peyton Manning hasn’t played consistently well since before the loss to the Patriots in Week 9, and that could be due to a tired arm, if not an outright injury. The bye week should help get him ready for the divisional round, but all bets are off after that. The formula for beating this version of the Broncos is to stop the run and force Manning to throw the ball more than 40 times. Denver is 2-4 in those games, including the four-interception performance against the Bengals on Dec. 22. Also, the Broncos are 2-3 against other playoff teams (the worst mark among the league’s top four seeds) and haven’t beaten one since Oct. 5, against the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals. Denver is, however, 9-3 against teams that finished .500 or better.

And while a potential matchup against the high-scoring Steelers would be difficult, like the Ravens, this version of the Steelers defense doesn’t approach its predecessors (30th in FootballOutsiders.com DVOA—defense-adjusted value over average—heading into Week 17) and would have difficulty holding serve against Manning. An upset is certainly a possibility, but less so than the chances of a Packers loss.

so we are the most likely, but then in the very next sentence he says Denver is ripest and goes on to say why.

[Bossman641]

It's certainly not the most well-worded article. I think Bedard is trying to say that, on the surface, Denver is the weakest team but that the Steelers defense is so bad that he doesn't see it happening.

[Harlan Huckleby]

I don't think anyone is doubting that Seattle's defense is very good. They are saying the narrative that Seattle's D is better than last year is overblown.

It might be. But the "not-to-worry, the Seattle D is over-rated narrative" that has been repeated in this forum is underblown. What we need is to be simply blown.

Last September, I don't remember anybody predicting that the Seattle defense would suffocate the Packers. The few lonely voices were right.

This playoff season, the voices saying Seattle D will dominate - and the voices aren't so lonely - may prove right. Seattle is good enough that this is credible intuition. There are intangibles, there is room for disagreement.

[Maxie the Taxi]

My "credible intuition" is that those arrogant Seattle bastards are due for a fall.