Official Super Bowl XLIX Thread

[yetisnowman]

So Belichick didn't call a timeout in the hopes that Seattle would be psyched out and would botch the next play? Sorry but I'm not buying it. Lynch got tackled with 1:02 left. Seattle changes their personnel from a 2 TE I formation to the 3 WR formation and gets to the LOS at a normal pace. Seattle purposefully ran 30 seconds off the clock to leave as little time as possible remaining.

If Lynch plunges the ball in, Hauschka most likely kicks into the end zone and NE is left with 20 seconds and 2 TO to get in field goal range. Belichick is then left answering questions this morning about why he only left Brady with 20 seconds and 2 TO instead of 55-58 seconds and 1 TO.

Ultimately I think the smart decision would have been to be ready to burn a timeout after every play. I didn't mean psych out in terms of making them screw up a play and turn the ball over. Just in that they were expecting them to take a timeout. By calling a timeout with a minute left, while you do give yourself more wiggle room if Seattle scores, you also stop the clock for them and keep the entire playbook open for them on all 3 plays if necessary. I think that was his logic, I could be wrong. Other than that him letting the clock run doesn't make a lot of sense. It struck me as similar to when the kicker is expecting a timeout to freeze him, yet one doesn't come.

[KYPack]

so if he had 5 runs, there's a 100% chance he scores, right?

I believe that would be a 112% chance of scoring.

[Bossman641]

Ultimately I think the smart decision would have been to be ready to burn a timeout after every play. I didn't mean psych out in terms of making them screw up a play and turn the ball over. Just in that they were expecting them to take a timeout. By calling a timeout with a minute left, while you do give yourself more wiggle room if Seattle scores, you also stop the clock for them and keep the entire playbook open for them on all 3 plays if necessary. I think that was his logic, I could be wrong. Other than that him letting the clock run doesn't make a lot of sense. It struck me as similar to when the kicker is expecting a timeout to freeze him, yet one doesn't come.

Seattle already had the entire playbook open. They semi-closed it on themselves. Once Lynch got tackled with 1:02 they could have easily hurried up and snapped the ball with 40 seconds or so left. They dragged things out too much. Actually that entire drive was a pretty poor use of time.

1st and 10 at SEA 20 (2:02) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep left to M.Lynch to NE 49 for 31 yards (J.Collins).
Two-Minute Warning
1st and 10 at NE 49 (1:55) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to J.Kearse (M.Butler).
Timeout #1 by SEA at 01:50.
2nd and 10 at NE 49 (1:50) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to C.Matthews (B.Browner).
3rd and 10 at NE 49 (1:41) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right to R.Lockette to NE 38 for 11 yards (L.Ryan).
1st and 10 at NE 38 (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) R.Wilson pass deep right to J.Kearse pushed ob at NE 5 for 33 yards (M.Butler).
Timeout #2 by SEA at 01:06.
1st and 5 at NE 5 (1:06) M.Lynch left tackle to NE 1 for 4 yards (D.Hightower).
2nd and 1 at NE 1 (:26) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass short right intended for R.Lockette INTERCEPTED by M.Butler at NE -1. M.Butler to NE 2 for 3 yards (R.Lockette). PENALTY on NE, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced at NE 2.

Why did they take TO #1 after the incompletion to Kearse? I can't remember. Was there an injured player?

[woodbuck27]

so if he had 5 runs, there's a 100% chance he scores, right?

No..he might go 0 for 5 on one set of five runs and 2 for 5 on the next.

He might hit a real dry spell and go 0 for 10 and suddenly get hot and score on 3 of the next 5 runs.

It's all really a mystery. A mystery that will unfold in mere seconds from now......

So you call the slant and what's the worst case scenario? Time to think...well no...and ...is this the correct call!? Consequences of being wrong !?

A pick or fumble and turn over...... but you love the match up so ... and so... and well so ... you go with a three receiver set ....

just to make them think your passing .....but no .....their not going to be fooled by that ... so ... so ... so and

suddenly when you realize you should have been running ....they have the fricken' ball and... and that game

is over ... and well YOU lose ! BAM ! ..... you know you should have run the ball.

[pbmax]

Seattle already had the entire playbook open. They semi-closed it on themselves. Once Lynch got tackled with 1:02 they could have easily hurried up and snapped the ball with 40 seconds or so left. They dragged things out too much. Actually that entire drive was a pretty poor use of time.



Why did they take TO #1 after the incompletion to Kearse? I can't remember. Was there an injured player?

Late substitutions and then needed an adjustment/audible. This has happened to the Packers numerous times.

I think the switch from a 40 second clock, after a normal non-incompletion play to a 25 second clock (after a TO, injury, official measurement) screws up some teams. They are used to being able to call a personnel group and then get the play to the QB with time to huddle or move people around or audible all the while the coach can talk until 15 seconds are left on the clock.

On the 25 second clock, the sideline management is more compressed. Play call and personnel have to happen at same time and be done quickly. The coach only has 10 seconds to talk. If you huddle there isn't much time to audible or move people around. If you line up immediately you cannot communicate with the sideline and half the team are far away from the sideline so second adjustment isn't possible.

I am sure they work on this, but if something goes wrong, there isn't enough time to reset on a 25 second clock.

[Freak Out]

Hoody made the right call by NOT calling a TO. Seattle only had one left with 28 or so seconds left....so by not calling that TO he almost forced them to throw. I still would have ran Beast first and burned the TO if he didn't make it. That way you still have a couple of shots throwing the ball. Make sense..?

[mraynrand]

Hoody made the right call by NOT calling a TO. Seattle only had one left with 28 or so seconds left....so by not calling that TO he almost forced them to throw. I still would have ran Beast first and burned the TO if he didn't make it. That way you still have a couple of shots throwing the ball. Make sense..?

Sure. Or run, throw, run. And if you throw, you could pick something a little safer like a fade to the tall dude from Footlocker.

[Pugger]

That's got nothing to do with what happened at the end there...

Belichick needed to call a TO to preserve the clock in case Seattle scored - which they should have, had they run Lynch. Belichick reduced his teams chances by not calling a TO. That they got lucky and Carroll/Bevell went braindead too is not the point.

As for Carroll - I'll accept his explaination that they might could only run it twice, although I think they could have gotten another play off had they been stuffed twice. He said they planned on running it twice after the throw; but I, like most everyone else thought the play there was to run it again on 2nd down and punch it in.

I agree. Both HCs screwed up but BB got lucky that his defense sealed the deal with the INT.

[pbmax]

Sure. Or run, throw, run. And if you throw, you could pick something a little safer like a fade to the tall dude from Footlocker.

If you run, throw, run, the Defense knows you must pass on that third down.

[bobblehead]

so if he had 5 runs, there's a 100% chance he scores, right?

no, he has 32.7% chance of scoring.

[pbmax]

The other problem with running without a TO is that you cannot substitute AND you have to count on the refs pulling the Defense off the ball and getting it set in a timely fashion.

[wist43]

Hoody made the right call by NOT calling a TO. Seattle only had one left with 28 or so seconds left....so by not calling that TO he almost forced them to throw. I still would have ran Beast first and burned the TO if he didn't make it. That way you still have a couple of shots throwing the ball. Make sense..?

That doesn't hold up FO...

By not calling a TO Belichick reduced his teams chances of winning by at least half. That is to say, he took away the possibility that his offense could get back down the field for a FG and try to tie it. That's the point - that's the only point.

As Brady himself said, when he saw that they weren't going to take a TO he said he knew his SB was over - and that it all came down to right then and there with the defense - that's the point - NE's chances were reduced by not taking the TO.

As for Seattle, they could have, and should have run it there b/c running it there stood a good chance of success and was low risk. They still had the TO, so they could stop the clock and pass on 3rd down. If the 3rd down pass is incomplete, the clock stops and it is 4th down - run or pass for all the marbles. Seattle absolutely was not forced to pass it on 2nd down.

Prisco wrote an article saying exactly what some of us are saying... that both coaches screwed it up at the end. BB just happened to get away with it b/c Carroll/Bevell bailed him out with a stupid playcall.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/25017711/super-bowl-49-carrolls-mistake-helps-belichick-get-away-with-blunder

[woodbuck27]

I don't have stats on this year specifically, but he is 5/12 in those situations over the past 3 years.

The really damning thing for Seattle is that NE was horrible in short yardage situations. Worst team in the league in "power-running situations" and fifth worst at "stuffing" power runs (no gain or a loss).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl

On the flip side, Seattle was very good at converting power situations and rarely got stuffed.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol

Why didn't Seattle take advantage of that information?

Amazing.

I just hope like us; that Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements are learning from all of this.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

I missed this discussion as I was in Godknowswhere, NE waiting out winter storm linus. I had to listen to half in car and watched second half at some dive hotel, but the one thing I took away from it was the packers could have beat either one of them....

[Cheesehead Craig]

Why didn't Seattle take advantage of that information?

Amazing.

I just hope like us; that Mike McCarthy and Tom Clements are learning from all of this.

You'd think with all those Microsoft Surface tablets on the sidelines they could go to that website. Or at least play Clash of Clans or Age of War while waiting to get back on the field.