Official Randall Cobb FA Thread

[King Friday]

then thats goodbye cobb, and hello 2016 3rd round comp pick

that would be a hell of a deal for him compared to what jennings (who was better at the time he became a free agent compared to what cobb is now IMO), got

When will you guys figure out that the cap is going up 25% over the next couple years? Lots of guys are going to make CRAZY MONEY in the next 2 offseasons. Deals signed 2-3 years ago can't be compared apples-to-apples to ones signed this or next offseason.

Jennings got $9M a year and $18M guaranteed...that's more like $11M and $22.5M in the current environment. Jennings was also a 29 year old player. Cobb is considerably younger...and earns a premium as a result.

[vince]

2014 - $133 mil
2015 - $143 mil
2016 - $166 mil?

That'd be a 25% increase from 2014. I've seen as high as $154 projected for 2016 but nowhere in the ballpark of $160 (at least recently) much less $166. It's a players market but most teams (Packers included) still need to exercise some discipline.

[Joemailman]

A PFT article from March 2014 had this to say:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...llion-in-2016/

When the salary cap jumped from $123 million to $133 million last week, some suggested it could move to $140 million in 2015 and $150 million in 2016.

Think higher.

One source with knowledge of the process (but not the same source who was on the money — pun lame but intended — when providing info about the 2014 cap) tells PFT that the cap could spike to $145 million in 2015 and a whopping $160 million in 2016.

They were pretty close on the 2015 cap, so 160 in 2016 might not be out of the question.

[Pugger]

I agree with those who think $12 mil is too much. There is some crazy cap space out there though so I don't doubt he could get close to that from someone. Bulaga may be staring at $8 or $9 mil too in this market.

$12m for a slot WR is too much and I suspect some team will offer him that and we won't be able to match it.

[red]

Patler, there isn't nearly enough here to prove ANYTHING. If he's talking to other teams, OF COURSE he will be asking for the moon. They will need to offer the moon to take a WR away from a title contender with a HOF caliber QB.

I'm sure Green Bay could keep him for less than $12M a year. That isn't the question. The question is how much is Thompson willing to pay...and my guess is not much more than $8M.

If other teams are offering $12M and Thompson is offering $8M+...then Cobb is gone. He ain't taking that much of a haircut to stay in Green Bay.

when are you guys going to realize that people like you have been saying for years that "the cap just jumped (this much) so we should expect "x players" salary to go up "this much". yet it never does

all it means is that the top 1 or 2 guys from each team are gonna make a lot more and teams will continue to roll over record sums every year

and just because 12 million might be the new 9 million, doesn't mean we should invest that much money in a position made by the QB

is it just pure luck that every WR we've drafted since a-rod has been starter has turned in to something special, or at least not a bust?

and i call BS on the premium for being younger. jennings was still well in his prime when he got paid, with plenty of good years left. a team giving jennings a 4 or 5 year deal at 29 is gonna expect the same kind of production as they would cobb to get over the next 4 or 5 years at 24.

its not like jennings was 33 and could hit the wall any year now

[red]

$12m for a slot WR is too much and I suspect some team will offer him that and we won't be able to match it.

some team is gonna give him that much thinking he can be more then just a slot reciever

we don't know if he can do that to be honest or not, all that we know is that in our system, he's a slot reciever

[pbmax]

When will you guys figure out that the cap is going up 25% over the next couple years? Lots of guys are going to make CRAZY MONEY in the next 2 offseasons. Deals signed 2-3 years ago can't be compared apples-to-apples to ones signed this or next offseason.

Jennings got $9M a year and $18M guaranteed...that's more like $11M and $22.5M in the current environment. Jennings was also a 29 year old player. Cobb is considerably younger...and earns a premium as a result.

Jennings was a #1 WR. Cobb is not.

Best slot contract right now (not two or three years ago) is just over $7 million per.

The cap has gone up just over 16% in the last two years (no one can calculate the next two caps). Even if you think Cobb is Jennings, that is $10.44 mil per year, not $12. Jordy is under $10 mil right now.

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Cobb isn't worth more than 8 mil/year based off talent alone. A very good player, but by no means is he a 1,300 yard 12 td guy on 95% of teams. He needs to realize that Rodgers plays a big factor in the stats he puts up. The Pats, Colts, and Broncos are probably the only other teams I see him being that productive with. TT should have tried to sign him much earlier in the year like he did with Nelson's first contract extension. He waited and now Cobb has most of the leverage...Inflated cap, top two free agent Wrs just got tagged, 24 yo, etc. etc. Only leverage for us is Rodgers and the high probability he would be setup to earn a high third contract.

The question is how much does that factor into his decision? Usually players follow the money and I'm almost positive the packers won't pay him more than Nelson so his limit with us is at the highest 9-10 million per year. I doubt TT even wants to pay him that.

[pbmax]

Is Cobb as good a WR as Shields is at CB?

I think Shields is better, though Cobb might have topped his production this year.

[Joemailman]

some team is gonna give him that much thinking he can be more then just a slot reciever

we don't know if he can do that to be honest or not, all that we know is that in our system, he's a slot reciever

Cobb's lack of size and lack of elite speed makes him much better in the slot than outside. I think he'd be overpaid at 12 million, but it might happen.

[red]

Cobb isn't worth more than 8 mil/year based off talent alone. A very good player, but by no means is he a 1,300 yard 12 td guy on 95% of teams. He needs to realize that Rodgers plays a big factor in the stats he puts up. The Pats, Colts, and Broncos are probably the only other teams I see him being that productive with. TT should have tried to sign him much earlier in the year like he did with Nelson's first contract extension. He waited and now Cobb has most of the leverage...Inflated cap, top two free agent Wrs just got tagged, 24 yo, etc. etc. Only leverage for us is Rodgers and the high probability he would be setup to earn a high third contract.

The question is how much does that factor into his decision? Usually players follow the money and I'm almost positive the packers won't pay him more than Nelson so his limit with us is at the highest 9-10 million per year. I doubt TT even wants to pay him that.

yup

i'm all about locking your talent up with a year left on the original deal

for some reason, TT usually doesn't like to deal that way

[vince]

A PFT article from March 2014 had this to say:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...llion-in-2016/

They were pretty close on the 2015 cap, so 160 in 2016 might not be out of the question.

I saw that one too but that was a year ago. They overshot this year by $2 mil so my guess is they overshot next year by at least $4 mil.

I haven't seen any other projection/guess in that neighborhood - much less $166 - in the last year.

The last three years have increased by $10 mil so in the absence of a fairly recent substantive projection to the contrary, I can't see a $20 million jump next year. Maybe that's right but I've not seen it. Even a huge $15 mil jump next year doesn't get the cap to $160 and that 50% higher increase falls quite a bit short of 25% in two years.

[pbmax]

TT should have tried to sign him much earlier in the year like he did with Nelson's first contract extension. He waited and now Cobb has most of the leverage...

How do we know he waited? In fact, we have reports that they were negotiating. What if Cobb was asking for $11 million in camp?

[PaCkFan_n_MD]

Cobb's lack of size and lack of elite speed makes him much better in the slot than outside. I think he'd be overpaid at 12 million, but it might happen.

12 million a year is out of the question imo. No way can I see TT paying him 2-3 million a year more than Nelson based off one good year. One in which he actually didn't play that well the first few weeks. 9 million a year is even a lot. If Cobb wants to play for the packers he better be reasonable or he's going to Greg Jennings himself out the door. How is that working out for him? Probably won't finish his contract and will probably get low balled on his next one.

[Joemailman]

yup

i'm all about locking your talent up with a year left on the original deal

for some reason, TT usually doesn't like to deal that way

He's locked guys up early before. In Cobb's case, I think he wanted to see if Cobb was the same player after the broken leg that he was before the injury. Going into last season, he had only played 2 games since the injury.