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  • #16
    Originally posted by pbmax View Post
    If you take the "best" ILB at 30 and the rest with the same grade are available in the middle 30s, you have done yourself a disservice. There will be injuries, contract negotiations gone awry, marijuana use, a poor decision to stop at GNC to shop and the annual 2nd year UDFA failure to develop.

    It might not be possible this year, but Ted went backwards 6 spots and grabbed Nelson plus an extra pick. This would be the year to do that again it seems. Unless the Packers really do think there is a first round ILB in the group.
    "Grade" is a relative term. I don't think the issue is "a first round ILB." I think the issue is "the best fit at this place and time for our system." If the man you need is there, take him. If you trade down, someone else might select the man you want. IMO, talent is not fungible.
    One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
    John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
      "Grade" is a relative term. I don't think the issue is "a first round ILB." I think the issue is "the best fit at this place and time for our system." If the man you need is there, take him. If you trade down, someone else might select the man you want. IMO, talent is not fungible.
      Grade is a relative term, but no more imprecise that selecting in the first round generally. If team's could actually predict who will be successful, then the first round wouldn't be a 50/50 crap shoot. Teams can generally project how well a player may do. If you have the same grade on 6 players and 2 of them will be available 8 picks later, trading down makes sense.

      I would say especially true if those grades you have them on are for the second round.

      There are constraints. Everyone loves to say there are only 18-20 first round players this year. Well, trading down or not, 32 will get selected. So if there are only 20 second round grades, you better not trade down into the late second round.
      Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

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      • #18
        Originally posted by pbmax View Post
        Grade is a relative term, but no more imprecise that selecting in the first round generally. If team's could actually predict who will be successful, then the first round wouldn't be a 50/50 crap shoot. Teams can generally project how well a player may do. If you have the same grade on 6 players and 2 of them will be available 8 picks later, trading down makes sense.

        I would say especially true if those grades you have them on are for the second round.

        There are constraints. Everyone loves to say there are only 18-20 first round players this year. Well, trading down or not, 32 will get selected. So if there are only 20 second round grades, you better not trade down into the late second round.
        I still don't get it. I compare it to hiring a key employee. A head hunter can bring you six candidates with the same "grade." However, the six are not interchangeable. Each has unique talents and character traits. You hire the one that fits your needs best, even if it means paying a larger salary or accommodating her future plans to start a family.
        One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
        John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

        Comment


        • #19
          Originally posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
          I still don't get it. I compare it to hiring a key employee. A head hunter can bring you six candidates with the same "grade." However, the six are not interchangeable. Each has unique talents and character traits. You hire the one that fits your needs best, even if it means paying a larger salary or accommodating her future plans to start a family.
          Does your hypothetical company have as much turnover as an NFL roster? Do employees get injured at the same rate, unable to perform for most of the year, or perhaps, ending their career prematurely?

          And does the hiring of that single employee directly and immediately affect your ability to train and develop internal candidates for the position? Are you allowed to hire from this pool of candidates only once a year?

          Is the prospective employee 1/53 of your workforce? If the single employee's position historically had a 50% turnover rate, doesn't it make sense to audition two players for just about the price of one?
          Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

          Comment


          • #20
            I would be SHOCKED if a ton of CBs are available at #30...I guess Bob McGinn's boys have ignored the rise of the passing game int he NFL over the last 3 decades. It doesn't matter if they aren't 1st round grades...TEAMS NEED CBs and they'll take the best one available.
            It's such a GOOD feeling...13 TIME WORLD CHAMPIONS!!

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            • #21
              pb, I guess by that reasoning it makes sense to trade down for Cody Fajardo and Brett Hundley if you have the 1st pick in the draft and need a QB. Winston might get hurt or turn out to be a bust. Everybody approaches deal-making differently. I see "value" as very subjective. It depends on specific team needs and wants. That's all I'm saying. You have a specific need to fill, the guy who can best fill it is available, take him.
              One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
              John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

              Comment


              • #22
                Originally posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
                pb, I guess by that reasoning it makes sense to trade down for Cody Fajardo and Brett Hundley if you have the 1st pick in the draft and need a QB. Winston might get hurt or turn out to be a bust. Everybody approaches deal-making differently. I see "value" as very subjective. It depends on specific team needs and wants. That's all I'm saying. You have a specific need to fill, the guy who can best fill it is available, take him.
                There are constraints though. I doubt any team has either of those prospects rated with Winston and Mariota. There are also reasons to trade up.

                This season is a great test of this. Everyone went into the offseason thinking ILBs. But now, you hear a lot more talk about CB and OLB, even D Line. A lot depends on the weakest link in the chain. If you actually believe Bradford can play and help get Matthews back outside (or even just be a reliable backup or 3rd down guy) then that might increases the chance you take the CB and then try to finagle your way to an ILB in the second.

                If Matthews is privately raising hell about being inside and Bradford is a complete unknown, then ILB becomes the focus and they might go back a few spots and take the best ILB in the top 1/3 of the second round as their first pick.

                The biggest constraint here is getting a trade to a spot you want, for a reasonable price. And that really depends on two things you can't control (other teams and your player grades).

                There is also the unknown. Did Thompson have a first round grade on Dix? Many thought both safeties were marginal first rounders. Perhaps each year Ted went with need was a spot where there we either couldn't trade back to a reasonable number or he had run out of players with appropriate grades for that round.
                Last edited by pbmax; 04-30-2015, 05:06 PM.
                Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Can't argue with any of that: Value is in the eye of the beholder. That's why the Dutch and the Indians could make a mutually agreeable trade for the Island of Manhattan.
                  One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
                  John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    There is only so much we know. Lots of picks bust out. In a way, the draft is a testament that teams KNOW who will make good pros, but really what they know is who are the 20 or so that fall into similar projections.

                    But faced with a situation where having a higher pick is no guarantee, and that you will always need more than one player from a draft to contribute, the number of draft picks you have is as important and how high they are.

                    That doesn't mean all the 7th round picks are better bet than a #10 pick in Round 1 and a #9 pick in the second. But it does mean that you don't want to trade the rest of your draft to get there.
                    Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Maxie the Taxi View Post
                      Can't argue with any of that: Value is in the eye of the beholder. That's why the Dutch and the Indians could make a mutually agreeable trade for the Island of Manhattan.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Originally posted by pbmax View Post
                        There is only so much we know. Lots of picks bust out. In a way, the draft is a testament that teams KNOW who will make good pros, but really what they know is who are the 20 or so that fall into similar projections.

                        But faced with a situation where having a higher pick is no guarantee, and that you will always need more than one player from a draft to contribute, the number of draft picks you have is as important and how high they are.

                        That doesn't mean all the 7th round picks are better bet than a #10 pick in Round 1 and a #9 pick in the second. But it does mean that you don't want to trade the rest of your draft to get there.
                        Except if you're the Eagles.
                        One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
                        John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          red, LOL.
                          One time Lombardi was disgusted with the team in practice and told them they were going to have to start with the basics. He held up a ball and said: "This is a football." McGee immediately called out, "Stop, coach, you're going too fast," and that gave everyone a laugh.
                          John Maxymuk, Packers By The Numbers

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Bob had Randall going at pick #20.
                            "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

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