Broncos Week

[Joemailman]

Packers have 5 road games left this year against teams that are currently in playoff position (Denver, Carolina, Minnesota, Oakland, Arizona). I'm guessing they win 3 of them.

[Fritz]

This will be a tough game, in part because it sounds like Starks and Montgomery may well be out, and they're going to have to work Adams back up to speed - I don't think he'll get too too many snaps. Plus, it'll take time for him to regain his confidence and flow.

It also appears Perry will be out. Raji I have not heard much about.

[Joemailman]

Rob Demovsky
ESPN Staff Writer

It's an ankle injury for Packers CB Damarious Randall, who was added to the injury report.

[Joemailman]

This will be a tough game, in part because it sounds like Starks and Montgomery may well be out, and they're going to have to work Adams back up to speed - I don't think he'll get too too many snaps. Plus, it'll take time for him to regain his confidence and flow.

It also appears Perry will be out. Raji I have not heard much about.

You're right about Montgomery, but maybe not the others.

Rob Demovsky
ESPN Staff Writer

Rookie cornerback Damarious Randall was not practicing Thursday. Expect he will be added to the Packers injury report. Only other player not practicing was WR Ty Montgomery (ankle).
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[pbmax]

For the Packers (or any division winner), they are likely to contain more and challenging road games against playoff contenders, because the two at large games are against the other Division winners (guaranteed playoff teams), and one of those is on the road. Of course, past results don't necessarily predict the future (this year's at large games are versus Division winners Carolina and Dallas), but the point is that in the NFL, success lines you up with more battles against other successful teams.

MM has said the goal is to win the home games and be no worse than .500 on the road, which gives you 12 wins, a record most would think is quite good. With 12 of 32 teams making the playoffs, an 8 game road schedule should have , on average 3 playoff teams. Presumably those are your toughest games. Even if you lose them all, you can still be 13-3, which would be very successful.

I don't think there's anything extraordinary about the 1-9. Last year 5 of the 6 NFC playoff teams were a combined 37-3 at home. Playoff teams almost always win at home. I'm not saying it's acceptable, but it's not unusual either.

If we have to lose, I'm OK to losing to the very best teams on the road, except in the playoffs.

Ain't good enough. http://pfref.com/tiny/gmZXe

Rk                     Tm From   To  W   L T  W-L% Count           
1     Pittsburgh Steelers 2012 2014  5   4 0 0.556     9 Ind. Games
2      San Diego Chargers 2012 2014  5   4 0 0.556     9 Ind. Games
3        Seattle Seahawks 2012 2014  4   4 0 0.500     8 Ind. Games
4     San Francisco 49ers 2012 2014  6   8 0 0.429    14 Ind. Games
5     Philadelphia Eagles 2012 2014  3   4 0 0.429     7 Ind. Games
6          Denver Broncos 2012 2014  4   7 0 0.364    11 Ind. Games
7      Cincinnati Bengals 2012 2014  3   6 0 0.333     9 Ind. Games
8       Carolina Panthers 2012 2014  2   5 1 0.313     8 Ind. Games
9    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2012 2014  3   7 0 0.300    10 Ind. Games
10         Dallas Cowboys 2012 2014  3   8 0 0.273    11 Ind. Games
11     New Orleans Saints 2012 2014  3   9 0 0.250    12 Ind. Games
12       Baltimore Ravens 2012 2014  3   9 0 0.250    12 Ind. Games
13     Indianapolis Colts 2012 2014  3  10 0 0.231    13 Ind. Games
14        Atlanta Falcons 2012 2014  2   7 0 0.222     9 Ind. Games
15          Buffalo Bills 2012 2014  2   7 0 0.222     9 Ind. Games
16      Arizona Cardinals 2012 2014  3  11 0 0.214    14 Ind. Games
17         St. Louis Rams 2012 2014  1   6 1 0.188     8 Ind. Games
18         Houston Texans 2012 2014  2   9 0 0.182    11 Ind. Games
19         Miami Dolphins 2012 2014  2   9 0 0.182    11 Ind. Games
20        New York Giants 2012 2014  2  10 0 0.167    12 Ind. Games
21    Washington Redskins 2013 2014  1   5 0 0.167     6 Ind. Games
22   New England Patriots 2012 2014  1   6 0 0.143     7 Ind. Games
23      Minnesota Vikings 2012 2014  1   9 1 0.136    11 Ind. Games
24     Kansas City Chiefs 2012 2014  1   7 0 0.125     8 Ind. Games
25          Chicago Bears 2012 2014  1   8 0 0.111     9 Ind. Games
[B]26      Green Bay Packers 2012 2014  1   9 0 0.100    10 Ind. Games[/B]
27   Jacksonville Jaguars 2012 2014  1   9 0 0.100    10 Ind. Games
28       Cleveland Browns 2012 2014  1  11 0 0.083    12 Ind. Games
29        Oakland Raiders 2012 2014  0  11 0 0.000    11 Ind. Games
30          Detroit Lions 2012 2014  0  10 0 0.000    10 Ind. Games
31       Tennessee Titans 2012 2014  0  10 0 0.000    10 Ind. Games
32          New York Jets 2012 2014  0   7 0 0.000     7 Ind. Games

[smuggler]

Notice, too that New England is ranked #22.

Actually, the trend appears to be that most of the teams ranked higher up...

it's not just that they tend to be good teams, but specifically that they have had good defenses.

[pbmax]

Notice, too that New England is ranked #22.

Actually, the trend appears to be that most of the teams ranked higher up...

it's not just that they tend to be good teams, but specifically that they have had good defenses.

Yes, kind of a mixed bag up top. But the Steeler D has been awful for 3 years. That's Ben right there. Chargers D has been a mixed bag. Eagles, Bucs, Saints? D helps but something else I suspect. I suspect M3 is still too willing to take the ball out of his QB's hands.

Lot of high variance QBs up there.

[smuggler]

The fact that Brady and Rodgers are in the bottom half of the league means something. These are also really small sample sizes, as are most in the NFL.

[pbmax]

OK, but who is the next good team down there with them? The Giants? Bottom of that list is putrid with GB and NE exceptions.

[mraynrand]

GB lost 5 games to Seattle and he Niners, both teams who have recently been in three superbowls and NFCCGs. The Packers are mostly getting beaten by superior playoff teams on the road. Also, if you're gonna lose a game, it's most likely to be against better teams, on the road. This isn't that hard to understand.

[mraynrand]

I would really like to see GB's defense throttle Manning. I fear that Capers will defend the Manning of several years ago and give up a ton of underneath short passes, instead of going on a tear and clobbering the hell out of the guy.

[Patler]

OK, but who is the next good team down there with them? The Giants? Bottom of that list is putrid with GB and NE exceptions.

Yet, aren't NE and GB the teams with the best overall records for the last whatever number of years? Both are virtually unbeatable at home. What does it matter that they have done poorly against playoff teams on the road?

[pbmax]

Yet, aren't NE and GB the teams with the best overall records for the last whatever number of years? Both are virtually unbeatable at home. What does it matter that they have done poorly against playoff teams on the road?

Mostly it would matter because good teams on the road is a frequent playoff situation.

Rand is right that at least two of those games are playoff losses to the NFCW and that is, in and of itself, an enviable place to be. But unless you are going to get home field every year, its even tougher to win out with that kind of performance.

[pbmax]

Speaking of winning at home, M3 and the Packers are 6-3 versus playoff teams in that stretch. Here are the overall numbers regardless of Home/Away.

Rk                     Tm From   To   W   L T  W-L% Count           
1        Seattle Seahawks 2012 2014  18   6 0 0.750    24 Ind. Games
2    New England Patriots 2012 2014  14   8 0 0.636    22 Ind. Games
3     Pittsburgh Steelers 2012 2014  10   7 0 0.588    17 Ind. Games
4      Indianapolis Colts 2012 2014  12  11 0 0.522    23 Ind. Games
5      Cincinnati Bengals 2012 2014   9   9 1 0.500    19 Ind. Games
6     San Francisco 49ers 2012 2014  11  12 0 0.478    23 Ind. Games
7          Denver Broncos 2012 2014  10  12 0 0.455    22 Ind. Games
8        Baltimore Ravens 2012 2014  10  13 0 0.435    23 Ind. Games
9      San Diego Chargers 2012 2014   8  12 0 0.400    20 Ind. Games
10      Carolina Panthers 2012 2014   7  11 1 0.395    19 Ind. Games
[B]11      Green Bay Packers 2012 2014   7  12 0 0.368    19 Ind. Games[/B]
12         St. Louis Rams 2012 2014   7  13 1 0.357    21 Ind. Games
13         Miami Dolphins 2012 2014   7  13 0 0.350    20 Ind. Games
14     New Orleans Saints 2012 2014   7  14 0 0.333    21 Ind. Games
15      Arizona Cardinals 2012 2014   7  15 0 0.318    22 Ind. Games
16    Philadelphia Eagles 2012 2014   5  12 0 0.294    17 Ind. Games
17         Dallas Cowboys 2012 2014   5  13 0 0.278    18 Ind. Games
18      Minnesota Vikings 2012 2014   5  14 1 0.275    20 Ind. Games
19         Houston Texans 2012 2014   6  17 0 0.261    23 Ind. Games
20        Atlanta Falcons 2012 2014   5  15 0 0.250    20 Ind. Games
21        New York Giants 2012 2014   5  16 0 0.238    21 Ind. Games
22          Buffalo Bills 2012 2014   4  13 0 0.235    17 Ind. Games
23          New York Jets 2012 2014   4  13 0 0.235    17 Ind. Games
24    Washington Redskins 2012 2014   4  13 0 0.235    17 Ind. Games
25          Chicago Bears 2012 2014   4  16 0 0.200    20 Ind. Games
26       Cleveland Browns 2012 2014   4  16 0 0.200    20 Ind. Games
27          Detroit Lions 2012 2014   3  16 0 0.158    19 Ind. Games
28     Kansas City Chiefs 2012 2014   3  16 0 0.158    19 Ind. Games
29   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2012 2014   3  17 0 0.150    20 Ind. Games
30        Oakland Raiders 2012 2014   1  17 0 0.056    18 Ind. Games
31       Tennessee Titans 2012 2014   1  19 0 0.050    20 Ind. Games
32   Jacksonville Jaguars 2012 2014   1  20 0 0.048    21 Ind. Games

[mraynrand]

Speaking of winning at home, M3 and the Packers are 6-3 versus playoff teams in that stretch. Here are the overall numbers regardless of Home/Away.

They are exactly where you would expect them to be for a perennial playoff team that hasn't reached the Super Bowl. All the recent Superbowl participants are above them, as expected. In other words, the W-L records are just reflecting what you already knew.