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Statistically speaking - Pack is average...

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  • #1

    Statistically speaking - Pack is average...

    Yes - stats aren't everything but they do tell a story. In years past, I used to post rankings here using key stats but frankly don't have the time anymore.

    I just hope we get our act together and get hot going into playoffs - history shows that matters a lot.

    But when you see the product from last 3 games and compare it to the national media 'power rankings' - we are over rated.

    On offense - Pack is 11th in yards/play, 26th on 3rd down.
    Defense - 21st and 18th, respectively.
    24th in ToP.
    4th in turnover margin and 7th in point differential.

    Using a weighted avg formula - my top 10 - bleacher report in parenthesis:
    Cardinals - (6th)
    Bengals - (2nd)
    Patriots - (1st)
    Jets - (8th)
    Panthers -(3rd)
    Seahawks - (10th)
    Broncos - (4th)
    Falcons - (9th)
    Chiefs - head scratcher here. Decent on defense and t/o margin but 3-5
    Saints - another underperform team. Very good offense but terrible defense.

    Packers would be 16th vs 5th in BR.
    Vikes 13th (vs 7th in BR). bears 25th and lions dead last.

    Looking ahead - 3 of next 4 games are very winnable. December I'd see one or two losses.

    So 12-4 or 11-5
    The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.
    Vince Lombardi

    "Not really interested in being a spoiler or an underdog. We're the Green Bay Packers." McCarthy.
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  • #2
    There have been a lot of SB winners (the Giants come to mind, even the Packers in 2010) who have not been particularly good teams at mid season. But, they got hot late in the year and got past teams that started strong and faded as the season went on.

    Playing as they are certainly will mean an early out from the playoffs, if they even make it to the playoffs. My gut tells me this team will be better a month from now than it has been the last two weeks, but if it will be good enough to get deep in the playoffs is a toss up. They have a long way to go from where they are right now.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by Fosco33 View Post
      Yes - stats aren't everything but they do tell a story. In years past, I used to post rankings here using key stats but frankly don't have the time anymore.

      I just hope we get our act together and get hot going into playoffs - history shows that matters a lot.

      But when you see the product from last 3 games and compare it to the national media 'power rankings' - we are over rated.
      In the last three games, the Pack is 1-2. They are 'below average.' The last two games were against collectively 13-0 teams on the road - well above average.

      As I always say about wins and losses - if you picked the Pack to go 12-4, which 4 games exactly did you expect them to lose? I would have certainly picked at Den and at Carolina. And I would add at MN and at AZ. 12-4. That's a great record. If you take the four losses from last year and just look at those, the Packers were a horrible team.

      Statistics are a funny thing, and so is team momentum.

      I've been saying that the Packers are playing for three (hopefully 3, not 4) games in January. That they could be successful late in the season was based on the expectation that certain guys would get better over the course of the season, including Adams, Montgomery and R.Rodgers; Randall, Ryan, and Rollins on defense.

      It's a long season; we'll see where their talent level is at the end. But this team really needs almost everyone healthy, because they make up for top line talent with all kinds of special personnel packages.
      "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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      • #4
        To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired. Some of that is injuries, some of it is momentum, scheme and yes - running into hot teams. If you looked at last 3 - I'd bet we are in bottom 10.

        Typically a team isn't as bad or good as the mean. But when you see the chargers flopping - losing to the raiders, ravens and bears - it should make us nervous. They were a play away from OT vs us. And the broncos lost to the colts - who were on their own 3 game skid.
        The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.
        Vince Lombardi

        "Not really interested in being a spoiler or an underdog. We're the Green Bay Packers." McCarthy.

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        • #5
          I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.

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          • #6
            Originally posted by Fosco33 View Post
            To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired. Some of that is injuries, some of it is momentum, scheme and yes - running into hot teams. If you looked at last 3 - I'd bet we are in bottom 10.

            Typically a team isn't as bad or good as the mean. But when you see the chargers flopping - losing to the raiders, ravens and bears - it should make us nervous. They were a play away from OT vs us. And the broncos lost to the colts - who were on their own 3 game skid.
            Week to week seems to mean so little in the NFL right now.

            Should Carolina be concerned because GB was a play and two point conversions away from OT against them? The play was there, to, an easy toss and catch.

            Comment

            • #7
              Originally posted by Patler View Post
              I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.
              With 8 more games to go it is a little early to be declaring what everything will look like after week 17. For all we know Carolina has peaked.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Fosco33 View Post
                To clarify - the stats are season totals. I purely meant the visual product on the field in last 3 games has left lots to be desired.
                Can't help but agree. But is it a reflection of a bad team, or a team playing good teams on the road and in a bit of a downturn due to injuries, etc. That's the hard thing to figure out.
                "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

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                • #9
                  Originally posted by Patler View Post
                  Week to week seems to mean so little in the NFL right now.

                  Should Carolina be concerned because GB was a play and two point conversions away from OT against them? The play was there, to, an easy toss and catch.
                  Yes- they should be. In the game - after halftime, announcers were talking about their inability to finish games with big leads. It happened to them with giving up 17 4th a points to colts in prior week as well.
                  The measure of who we are is what we do with what we have.
                  Vince Lombardi

                  "Not really interested in being a spoiler or an underdog. We're the Green Bay Packers." McCarthy.

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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Pugger View Post
                    With 8 more games to go it is a little early to be declaring what everything will look like after week 17. For all we know Carolina has peaked.
                    Certainly possible, but my point is right now they basically have a three game lead on GB for home field advantage, with just 8 games to play.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Patler View Post
                      I certainly would have liked to see them at home for the entire playoffs (I'm not sure why, their playoff record has not been stellar there of late), but if they had to lose home field to one team, Carolina doesn't seem like the worst place to have to go.
                      I agree. I think getting a first round bye is more important than being the #1 seed, as long as the #1 seed isn't Seattle. I'm also not sold on Newton. He was fairly inaccurate Sunday even though the Packers pass rush was poor. I think they could be very vulnerable to a Division round upset bid by a team with a pass rush.
                      I can't run no more
                      With that lawless crowd
                      While the killers in high places
                      Say their prayers out loud
                      But they've summoned, they've summoned up
                      A thundercloud
                      They're going to hear from me - Leonard Cohen

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Patler View Post
                        Certainly possible, but my point is right now they basically have a three game lead on GB for home field advantage, with just 8 games to play.
                        If the team keeps playing like they have been since the Rams game I don't think we'll need to worry about any of this.

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                        • #13
                          They've played 4 of the top 5 defenses according to DVOA in their first 8 games. I have a feeling their offensive numbers will improve once all is said and done. They do have to play Arizona, the other current member of the DVOA top 5 defense bunch.

                          I don't have any idea which way the defense will go... if they can keep their preferred secondary on the field, they should get better. With a bunch of subs in the last game, Carolina pulled out the 'ol heavy protect and throw deep plan that might not have worked so well if the starters were all together.
                          When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro ~Hunter S.

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                          • #14
                            IMO this team is below average, right now they are bordering on pathetic. But that's ok, IF they can make the playoffs and get hot at the right time. I really think they have succeeded in the past because of the talent of Rodgers and to a lesser extent Jordy. I really believe that stubby and the way he coaches hurts this team, yet they have some success despite that.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by denverYooper View Post
                              They've played 4 of the top 5 defenses according to DVOA in their first 8 games. I have a feeling their offensive numbers will improve once all is said and done. They do have to play Arizona, the other current member of the DVOA top 5 defense bunch.

                              I don't have any idea which way the defense will go... if they can keep their preferred secondary on the field, they should get better. With a bunch of subs in the last game, Carolina pulled out the 'ol heavy protect and throw deep plan that might not have worked so well if the starters were all together.
                              So what you are saying is that this team isn't that good, and needs to play other shitty teams to look good? If they want to be the best, they need to beat the best, or at least play them competitively.

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