Draft Rankings

[HarveyWallbangers]

I've finished QBs. Who I chose to evaluate was based on either CBS Sports or ESPN (which are the two sites I trust the most on draft rankings) giving the player a draftable grade. Then, I threw in any player who was invited to the combine. I'd occasionally throw in a player who I was intrigued by.

At QB the following QBs were given a draftable grade--except Josh Woodrum, Trevone Boykin, and Jake Rudock. Woodrum and Boykin were invited to the combine. Rudock intrigued me, mainly because the guy started at Iowa and put up decent stats one year. Then, transferred to Michigan, started, and put up decent stats the next year. That gave me a list of 20 QBs to evaluate.

RANKINGS

Pos  Rk  Rd     Player                School                CRk  CRd    Hgt   Wgt  40yd  Sht   3-Cone  Vert  Broad
QB   1   1      Carson Wentz          North Dakota State    1    1      6'5"  237  4.77  4.15  6.86    30.5  118
QB   2   1      Jared Goff            California            2    1      6'4"  215  4.82  4.47  7.17    27.0  110
QB   3   1-2    Paxton Lynch          Memphis               3    1-2    6'7"  244  4.86  4.26  7.14    36.0  118
QB   4   3      Connor Cook           Michigan State        4    1-2    6'4"  217  4.79  4.28  7.21    33.0  113
QB   5   3-4    Cardale Jones         Ohio State            8    4-6    6'5"  253  4.81                36.0     
QB   6   4      Jacoby Brissett       North Carolina State  7    3-5    6'4"  231  4.94  4.53  7.17    31.0  113
QB   7   4      Dak Prescott          Mississippi State     6    3-4    6'2"  226  4.79  4.32  7.11    32.5  116
QB   8   5      Kevin Hogan           Stanford              9    5-6    6'3"  218  4.78  4.31  6.90    32.5  113
QB   9   5-6    Christian Hackenberg  Penn State            5    2-3    6'4"  223  4.78  4.33  7.04    31.0  114
QB   10  5-6    Jeff Driskel          Louisiana Tech        14   5-FA   6'4"  234  4.56  4.25  7.19    32.0  122
QB   11  6      Brandon Allen         Arkansas              11   6-7    6'1"  217  4.84  4.33  7.06    28.0  110
QB   12  7      JAKE COKER            Alabama               16   7-FA   6'6"  244                              
QB   13  7-FA   Vernon Adams          Oregon                15   7-FA   5'11" 200  4.83  4.20  6.82    29.5  114
QB   14  PFA    Brandon Doughty       Western Kentucky      12   5-FA   6'3"  213  5.22  4.52  7.49    27.0  103
QB   15  PFA    Cody Kessler          USC                   10   5-7    6'1"  220  4.89  4.00  7.32    29.5  104
QB   16  FA     Joel Stave            Wisconsin             18   7-FA   6'5"  236  4.80  4.33  7.29    33.5  115
QB   17  FA     Nate Sudfeld          Indiana               13   7-FA   6'6"  234                      29.0  105
QB   18  FA     JAKE RUDOCK           Michigan              17   7-FA   6'3"  199                                
QB   19  FA     Josh Woodrum          Liberty               19   FA     6'3"  231  4.80  4.31  6.74    31.0  117 
QB   20  FA     Trevone Boykin        TCU                   20   FA     6'0"  212  4.77  4.40          32.0  110

Pos  Rk  Rd     Player                Size   SAA    Arm    Acc    Mech   Pre    Post   Poise  Leader  Scheme Fit       Comparison
QB   1   1      Carson Wentz          Great  Great  Good   Great  Solid  Great  Solid  Good   Great   Versatile        Carson Palmer
QB   2   1      Jared Goff            Good   Avg    Solid  Good   Great  Great  Good   Solid  Great   Precision        Matt Ryan
QB   3   1-2    Paxton Lynch          Great  Solid  Good   Good   Avg    Good   Solid  Great  Good    Versatile        Joe Flacco
QB   4   3      Connor Cook           Good   Solid  Solid  Solid  Solid  Good   Good   Avg    Avg     Precision        Kirk Cousins
QB   5   3-4    Cardale Jones         Great  Good   Great  Solid  Poor   Poor   Avg    Good   Solid   Vertical/Option  Daunte Culpepper
QB   6   4      Jacoby Brissett       Good   Poor   Solid  Solid  Avg    Solid  Avg    Solid  Good    Versatile        Brett Hundley
QB   7   4      Dak Prescott          Avg    Solid  Solid  Avg    Avg    Good   Avg    Poor   Great   Option           David Garrard
QB   8   5      Kevin Hogan           Solid  Good   Solid  Good   Poor   Great  Great  Solid  Great   Precision        Ryan Fitzpatrick
QB   9   5-6    Christian Hackenberg  Good   Solid  Good   Poor   Solid  Solid  Avg    Poor   Solid   Vertical         Blaine Gabbert
QB   10  5-6    Jeff Driskel          Good   Great  Good   Avg    Good   Avg    Avg    Poor   Good    Vertical   
QB   11  6      Brandon Allen         Poor   Solid  Solid  Solid  Solid  Good   Solid  Solid  Great   Precision        Case Keenum
QB   12  7      JAKE COKER            Great  Avg    Good   Avg    Poor   Solid  Avg    Solid  Solid   Vertical         Dan Orlovsky
QB   13  7-FA   Vernon Adams          Poor   Good   Solid  Solid  Avg    Avg    Avg    Poor   Great   Precison/Option  Seneca Wallace
QB   14  PFA    Brandon Doughty       Solid  Poor   Poor   Good   Solid  Great  Solid  Poor   Great   Precision        A.J. McCarron
QB   15  PFA    Cody Kessler          Poor   Solid  Avg    Solid  Solid  Solid  Great  Solid  Good    Precision        Matt Flynn
QB   16  FA     Joel Stave            Great  Solid  Solid  Avg    Solid  Avg    Poor   Poor   Solid   Versatile   
QB   17  FA     Nate Sudfeld          Great  Poor   Solid  Solid  Poor   Solid  Avg    Avg    Good    Versatile        Sean Mannion
QB   18  FA     JAKE RUDOCK           Solid  Solid  Poor   Solid  Avg    Good   Good   Solid  Good    Precision   
QB   19  FA     Josh Woodrum          Solid  Good   Avg    Solid  Poor   Solid  Avg    Poor   Great   Precision   
QB   20  FA     Trevone Boykin        Poor   Good   Avg    Solid  Poor   Solid  Poor   Avg    Solid   Option           Pat White

I won't get into why I like or don't like certain players because I don't have the time right now, but I thought I'd throw this out there to start a draft conversation. The second column is my ranking. The third column is my projection of where I'd draft the player. CRk is the consensus ranking of CBS, ESPN, and Draft Countdown. CRd is the range of when the player is projected to get drafted amongst those three sites. I generally don't trust sites like Draft Countdown, but this site usually ranks high in the rankings of rankings. I'll replace this one with McGinn's rankings when they come out. McGinn's rankings are normally at or near the top when it comes to rankings of rankings. The other columns are explained in more detail below. The last two columns are scheme fit and NFL comparison.

CHART

Trait                                 Column      Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Size (Hgt)                            1 - Size    6'5"   6'4"   6'3"   6'2"   6'1"
Speed, Acceleration, & Agility (SpR)  2 - SAA     71+    66-70  61-65  56-60  55-
Arm Strength                          3 - Arm     Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Accuracy                              4 - Acc     Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Mechanics                             5 - Mech    Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Pre-Snap Reads                        6 - Pre     Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Post-Snap Progressions                7 - Post    Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Poise In The Pocket                   8 - Poise   Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor
Leadership & Toughness                9 - Leader  Great  Good   Solid  Avg    Poor

The first two traits are based on measurables. For SAA I use a modified SPARQ rating that I found on a Seahawks board a few years ago. There was analysis on what drills correlate to success in the NFL at each position. For QBs the only combine measurable (besides height and hand size) that really meant anything was SAA which combined 40 time, 3 cone drill, and short shuttle to measure mobility. Wentz, for example, had a solid 4.77 40 (2nd best in this draft, but historically slightly above average), but his measurements in the short shuttle and 3 cone suggests he has really good mobility (which I think the tape validates).

[HarveyWallbangers]

Great. I spend all of that time and then the formatting of the table is all screwed up. It looked fine when I was previewing the post. I'm gonna see if two tables works. It did.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I didn't realize a post couldn't be more than 10,000 characters until now.

I will say that I like Carson Wentz. I'm not quite as high on him as Winston and Mariota from last year, but I like him better than Bortles, Carr, and Bridgewater from two years ago. I tried to be as objective as I could. My "ah ha" moment for him was watching tape of him against South Dakota State on the road. SDSU was a top 5 team with comparable talent, and the Bison blew them out. Wentz showed a lot of NFL throws in that game. His receivers are slow (probably the biggest weakness on the Bison the last two years), so he's often throwing into tight windows--which I think has helped him. The other thing is there really isn't tape of him having bad games. His footwork was inconsistent his first year starting, but improved dramatically as a senior. There are some bad throws, but most games I came away impressed. Even a guy like Goff had some atrocious games (USC and Utah games stand out).

People make assumptions about the level of competition, but the Bison played a pro style offense. Wentz had a lot of pre-snap responsiblities (both with play call and protection). Often, pre-snap reads were more important than post-snap progressions (think ARod with the Packers), so at times it appears that he just locked onto his primary target, but I don't think that's true. When he has to, he's shown the ability to progress through his reads, both high-low and east-west. I think he's probably further along than people realize, despite the level of competition. The knocks I have on him are: 1) he's had some injuries, 2) he can be careless with the ball when he's scrambling, 3) he sometimes trusts his arm too much (but in a way I like that; he's no game manager).

Something else to chew on. Division I-AA QBs don't generally get drafted in the first round because they have to overcome the level of competition doubts. When they do, they are generally successful. Three of the last four Division I-AA QBs to get drafted in the first round took their team to the Super Bowl. Two won the Super Bowl, and McNair was two yards short of winning. That doesn't count Super Bowl winning Division I-AA QBs like Doug Williams and Kurt Warner because those guys didn't get drafted in the first round.

I'd love some feedback. It makes me defend my positions, and it opens my eyes to things I haven't seen or makes me step back and look at more film of a player.

[woodbuck27]

A lot of fine work there HarveyWallbangers.

The Cleveland Brown Organization needs your report.

Add the Denver Broncos. What a mess their in now.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Has anybody looked at any of the QBs this year?

[Carolina_Packer]

Has anybody looked at any of the QBs this year?

Nice work, Harv. It doesn't look like there have been any QB's climbing up the draft board. There are certain QB's who get ranked a little higher for some a little lower for others, but with no great variance. Some like Wentz, Goff and Lynch top 3, and some like Goff, Wentz and Lynch.

What's apparent to me is that if you are in the market for a QB this year, get one early. There may be a QB outside the top 3 that hits in the NFL, but who knows. Cardale Jones has a great arm, but will he be able to handle and NFL offense and reading defenses?

Jeff Driskill, the FL kid who transferred to LA Tech may be a dark horse QB to make it in the league. If he goes to a place where he's not needed right away, which is very likely, and a place where they aren't turning over coaching staffs or coordinators every couple of years, he might be something.

[woodbuck27]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2627256-finding-best-fits-for-2016-nfl-drafts-top-quarterbacks?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=minnesota-Vikings

Best fits for College QB's and 2016 Draft....an opinion from a source NOT mine:

" ...Drafting a quarterback is not just about need. It’s about fit. Since they're in the most difficult position to transition from college to the pros, quarterbacks need offenses catered to their skill sets, coaching staffs willing to develop them and teammate support to encourage their growth.... "

[beveaux1]

Good work! You spent quite a bit of time on it. I don't think 20 will be drafted, but there might be 15 or so taken. The others will be un drafted FAs on someone's roster.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Good work! You spent quite a bit of time on it. I don't think 20 will be drafted, but there might be 15 or so taken. The others will be un drafted FAs on someone's roster.

20 won't be drafted. Normally, 11-12 are drafted. Last year it was just 7-8. However, 18 were invited to the combine. I added Coker because national championship QBs generally get drafted (Matt Flynn anybody). Rudock intrigued me because he was a guy who was solid at Iowa. Then, he was solid in a new system at Michigan the next year. That's unusual. I gave him a priority FA grade.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Come on Harv. You only have about a month to get this finished up. Get your lazy ass moving!

[smuggler]

In my opinion, we should draft Billings, not Rankins.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Come on Harv. You only have about a month to get this finished up. Get your lazy ass moving!

I got through most of the skill position players, but I'm running out of steam.

[gbgary]

dang! great work!

[woodbuck27]

20 won't be drafted. Normally, 11-12 are drafted. Last year it was just 7-8. However, 18 were invited to the combine. I added Coker because national championship QBs generally get drafted (Matt Flynn anybody). Rudock intrigued me because he was a guy who was solid at Iowa. Then, he was solid in a new system at Michigan the next year. That's unusual. I gave him a priority FA grade.

I was watching the NFL Network this morning and Charlie Casserly was commenting on the Draft and QB and liked these guys after Jared Goff and Connor Wentz:

A) Connor Cook - Michigan State

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=119548&draftyear=2016&genpos=QB

B) Paxton Lynch - Memphis

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=124111&draftyear=2016&genpos=QB

Then he spoke of this fella and his athleticism his strong arm and the fact he's 'a winner':

C) Kevin Hogan - Stanford - All this guy does is lead his team to wins. He's the most successful QB in school history. He has the most wins of any active QB in the country. He protects the ball very well.

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings...2016&genpos=QB

[HarveyWallbangers]

The TE class is pretty weak. Hunter Henry is a good prospect, but I don't think he's a 1st round talent. I like both Austin Hooper and Nick Vannett, but I think they are more 3rd round talents. I'm really high on Tyler Higbee. Right now, I have him at #2 at TE. I need to do a bit more research. Hooper seems to have a higher floor, but I think Higbee has the higher ceiling. There's buzz around Jerell Adams, but when I watched him at the combine, he didn't look like a natural pass catcher. Thomas Duarte doesn't have typical TE size, but with the success of Jordan Reed, Duarte is now a bit more intriguing. Same with Kyle Carter. He's a bit undersized, but he's a good athlete. Another sleeper that I like is Darion Griswold of Arkansas State.

Anybody think Tanner McEvoy can make a conversion to TE? Some have him as a draftable player late. Others don't. I don't know where to rate him because there's nothing to go on. It's all projection with him.