Interesting McCarthy Stat

[pbmax]

Seattle needed both time and possessions that late in the game. If Bostick doesn't fuck up it is game over. It was OK from the Packers point of view to give an extra possession. Bostick gave them the extra extra possession them need. Plus the fucking 2 point conversion fiasco that should have never happened.

So in summary, the Packers gave Seattle an extra possession and 2 points more than they should have using the run-run-run method correctly as they did.

When you are down multiple scores, you need more possessions more than you need more time. In a one possession game, then time and possession are much more equal.

McCarthy used an offensive strategy that by design gave them more possessions in exchange for less clock. Its a great end of game strategy. A terrible 8-, 6-, or 4-minute offensive strategy.

[ThunderDan]

When you are down multiple scores, you need more possessions more than you need more time. In a one possession game, then time and possession are much more equal.

McCarthy used an offensive strategy that by design gave them more possessions in exchange for less clock. Its a great end of game strategy. A terrible 8-, 6-, or 4-minute offensive strategy.

I respectfully disagree on this. Literally, everything had to go wrong the last 7 minutes of the game for SEA to win and it did. To me that game was the 1 in 10,000 that you lose not the 9,999 that we should have won.

[pbmax]

I respectfully disagree on this. Literally, everything had to go wrong the last 7 minutes of the game for SEA to win and it did. To me that game was the 1 in 10,000 that you lose not the 9,999 that we should have won.

OK, ignore the Seattle disaster. How many other times has McCarthy and the 4 minute offense (usually employed weirdly from 4-8 minutes left, employing run-run-pass) allowed a multiple score lead to dwindle to a single score AND the team that was behind has possession at end of game?

The charge that he takes his foot off the gas has evidence behind it.

[ThunderDan]

OK, ignore the Seattle disaster. How many other times has McCarthy and the 4 minute offense (usually employed weirdly from 4-8 minutes left, employing run-run-pass) allowed a multiple score lead to dwindle to a single score AND the team that was behind has possession at end of game?

The charge that he takes his foot off the gas has evidence behind it.

I am not sure how many times he has or hasn't. It seems like a lot recently. There was the stretch where we couldn't win a close game but won 20+ games in a row by the 5 point margin and a Super Bowl.

I think with last year's offensive struggles certainly made it feel that way a lot.

[pbmax]

The big wins and the regular season record are all good signs. The horrible record in close games tells a story about specific situations.

[vince]

The big wins and the regular season record are all good signs. The horrible record in close games tells a story about specific situations.

This is true but they count all four quarters when they add up wins and losses.

Arians is off to a great start. Bellichek and McCarthy have been doing it better than anyone else for a decade and beyond.

Here's as telling and as legitimate of a story about the same situations...

McCarthy's teams, when they lose, have a strong history of them being close games where the opponent has been forced to come back to beat them at the very end of the game. Far higher percentages of Arians' and other coaches losses have come in situations where they didn't pose a strong threat (didn't hold the lead) to win late in the game.

Good teams (coaches) win more than their competitors. When they win, they tend to win soundly, but when they do lose, they still have put themselves in position to win late in the game a high percentage of the time.

McCarthy is 45 out of 55 (.818) in forcing the opposition to win highly contested games.
Arians is only 8 out of 19 (.421)

Some day Bruce might catch McCarthy and Bellichek. He's put four good years together. Six more years of winning - along with at least a Super Bowl win - and he'll be right there. So far his playoff record is 1-2, and as Dan said they almost gave that one away.

[pbmax]

Arians numbers here will come down. Its obvious even good coaches struggle to get to .500.

So the percentage difference between great (.500) and McCarthy (.331) is not huge. But Mike has a big sample size here. He would need a 12 game reversal to get to even.

Its an artificial construct, so there are many types of game represented here. Some wins were likely the defense and the 4 minute offense letting the opponent back in the game before the offense closed it out. Some losses were probably blowouts the Packers were able get close in the end.

But I see this as a specific example of inflexibility. Teams that are bad have a lot of comebacks because they are behind a lot and they can score high in this chart if the offense is better than the D. In the Packers case, the offense is maximized already and has no further answers late in a game. Elway could always junk Reeves offense in a 2 minute drill. Marino would simply put the ball in a place the defense couldn't defend. I don't know how the Patriots do it.