More Banjo: Week 3 vs Lions

[pbmax]

Quick takeaway?

1. We probably overestimate the conservative end of game scenario for its impact on wins. I still maintain it exists and costs them games, but the number overall is less than 5.

2. Playoff leads lead me back to the Seattle game. The Cardinal game featured an ineffectual Packer Offense. It still should have featured a 2 point conversion.

I do think the Packers could increase their success with a more efficient late game strategy. But the difference is not huge. In the playoffs though, one more win is big deal.

3. Packers, given talent elsewhere, not a particularly good comeback team. But difference is still modest.

[arcilite]

Quick takeaway?

1. We probably overestimate the conservative end of game scenario for its impact on wins. I still maintain it exists and costs them games, but the number overall is less than 5.

2. Playoff leads lead me back to the Seattle game. The Cardinal game featured an ineffectual Packer Offense. It still should have featured a 2 point conversion.

I do think the Packers could increase their success with a more efficient late game strategy. But the difference is not huge. In the playoffs though, one more win is big deal.

3. Packers, given talent elsewhere, not a particularly good comeback team. But difference is still modest.

In regards to the 2 point conversion is has been revealed that Janis was actually hurt on the hail mary and would have been unable to go on a 2pt play. That left GB with only 2 WRs. McCarthy said that he had no two point conversion plays in the playbook based out of a 2WR set

[hoosier]

Hard to believe he couldn't have swapped in a short yardage play with two TEs and two WRs. Roll Rodgers right with the weak-side TE going that way and then he has multiple options. Whatever, we now know with utmost certainty that overtime in postseason is instant death for the Packers.

[Rutnstrut]

Hard to believe he couldn't have swapped in a short yardage play with two TEs and two WRs. Roll Rodgers right with the weak-side TE going that way and then he has multiple options. Whatever, we now know with utmost certainty that overtime in postseason is instant death for the Packers.

Stubby don't think on the fly.

[pbmax]

In regards to the 2 point conversion is has been revealed that Janis was actually hurt on the hail mary and would have been unable to go on a 2pt play. That left GB with only 2 WRs. McCarthy said that he had no two point conversion plays in the playbook based out of a 2WR set

Yeah, I get he didn't have his preferred plays. But injuries happen, the WR corp was already banged up and you need an emergency list.

Its just malpractice not to have it. His offense had not sniffed the red zone much at all. It was the best scoring chance they were likely to get.

[Pugger]

Like I said earlier - had MM gone for 2 and we didn't get it you guys would bitched about that. Mike went with the percentages and the tie to try and win it in OT. Who knew our ST and defense couldn't stop Fitzgerald and our offense yet again never saw the damn ball in OT. Besides - who here really thought if we had won that game would we have gone to Charlotte and beaten the Panthers the following week? Or beaten Denver in the SB? This is ancient history. It is way past time to move on from this, gentlemen.

[pbmax]

Like I said earlier - had MM gone for 2 and we didn't get it you guys would bitched about that. Mike went with the percentages and the tie to try and win it in OT. Who knew our ST and defense couldn't stop Fitzgerald and our offense yet again never saw the damn ball in OT. Besides - who here really thought if we had won that game would we have gone to Charlotte and beaten the Panthers the following week? Or beaten Denver in the SB? This is ancient history. It is way past time to move on from this, gentlemen.

That's the lie. That wasn't the percentage play.

How does the offense, which cannot run a 2 pt play because Janis is injured, score in OT? Was Mr. Miyagi with Janis on the sideline and just needed time? Did McCarthy have a special OT touchdown play on the chart for 2 TE and 2 RB?

I would also like someone who believes McCarthy is correct to run more to protect his defense, defend sending the defense out there again to stop the best NFC offense of 2015?

It too TWO hail marys to climb back into the game. Who was going to deliver another in OT?

[pbmax]

NFL Coaches Are Getting Away With Crimes Against Middle-School Math | FiveThirtyEight
According to 538's math, the Packers would have had about a 48.8% chance of winning had they gone for two after the Aaron Rodgers-Jeff Janis hail mary, but just a 40.9% chance of winning if they tried for overtime. This isn't as significant as the Chiefs, who kicked a PAT to go down seven late in the game in New England, which as you'll see is about a 15% swing.

http://www.acmepackingcompany.com/2016/1/21/10805606/cheese-curds-1-21-win-probabilities-say-packers-should-have-gone-for-two

[Patler]

I agree with Pugger. I've been here long enough to know the criticisms that would have followed had he gone for two and lost.
- why pin your season on a single play with your entire receiving corp on the sideline?
- it's dumb to go for two without the personnel that have practiced the two point offense.
- if you take the sure tie, anything can happen in OT, ST score, D score, doesn't have to be the offense.
- GB already had two interceptions, OT could have brought another.

[arcilite]

I agree with Pugger. I've been here long enough to know the criticisms that would have followed had he gone for two and lost.
- why pin your season on a single play with your entire receiving corp on the sideline?
- it's dumb to go for two without the personnel that have practiced the two point offense.
- if you take the sure tie, anything can happen in OT, ST score, D score, doesn't have to be the offense.
- GB already had two interceptions, OT could have brought another.

Agree completely. Very good points.

Also, MM had to make this decision within... what? 15-20 seconds of the TD being scored?

If you just get told you don't have enough WRs to run your 2pt play and need to decide what to do within 20 seconds of course the smart thing is to just kick the extra point and live another down.

[Patler]

Agree completely. Very good points.

Also, MM had to make this decision within... what? 15-20 seconds of the TD being scored?

If you just get told you don't have enough WRs to run your 2pt play and need to decide what to do within 20 seconds of course the smart thing is to just kick the extra point and live another down.

One has to wonder if he could have processed the fact that his set two point package wasn't available, decided on what plays to use instead, gotten the message out to the assistants to get the correct players on the field and communicated the play selection to Rodgers in the time allowed.

[pbmax]

One has to wonder if he could have processed the fact that his set two point package wasn't available, decided on what plays to use instead, gotten the message out to the assistants to get the correct players on the field and communicated the play selection to Rodgers in the time allowed.

If Michael James Liam Daniel McCarthy's approach to game management includes making ALL the complex calculations between plays without a timeout, then he needs to be removed from the job immediately. This board is now taking an excuse made in the offseason and now ret-conning into a coaching philosophy.

Here is a partial list of things he knew before Janis got hurt.

1. His WR group was thin already. Adams got hurt versus Washington and was not expected to play (this was reported by Tuesday of the week prior to game). Jones was banged up from midseason on. Cobb got hurt in the first quarter and left the game. He played Abby and Janis for most of the game.

2. Having one 2 point play is so dumb, I refuse to believe its his actual approach. While I have disagreements about his methods, I don't think he is this short sighted. Did he have just one goal line play?

3. The ENTIRE GAME was within one score at all times. That makes 2 point conversions an important consideration during the entire game. Especially the entire fourth quarter when you are trailing by conventional scores (3 or 7 points) and have a sputtering offense.

4. McCarty had the 2 minute warning (right before the FG that made it a seven point game) prior to their last drive. Cardinals took a TO at 00:55 seconds remaining.

A coach with a compromised WR position and no depth, had ALL WEEK to prepare more than one 2 pt conversion play and failed to anticipate that this single point of failure was perhaps unwise. It literally should be a weekly part of his preparation that he has more than one go to play in case of emergency that involves multiple personnel groups. McCarthy is so keen on his prep that I cannot imagine he doesn't have this on his chart.

Janis being hurt means Janis might not be able to play the rest of the game. There is no benefit to extending the game in that case. This is the part that kills me. McCarthy doesn't have a full report on player health AFTER the game. But he knows Janis will come back after the PAT and a kickoff have passed?

His offense was putrid in that game. He knew this when the final drive started and he was down seven. At a minimum, he or someone on his staff has the entire drive (and this does not include the calculation that could have been run while the Cardinals were on their previous possession) to find a play.

[pbmax]

Despite all the emotion, there is a point buried here, that if true, points to some of his short comings in game management.

If he really was all about that one play for a 2 point conversion, then Mike McCarthy as a coach is dependent entirely on the health of his squad to execute a game plan. Which means at the end of the game he could quite easily be lost without a path to turn to. And since he doesn't know how to take advantage of leverage except when in the lead, this would put him in a precarious position when behind late.

I don't believe he had only the one play. But I might believe that he had one play he liked much better than the others.

[esoxx]

Stubby

[Patler]

2. Having one 2 point play is so dumb, I refuse to believe its his actual approach. While I have disagreements about his methods, I don't think he is this short sighted. Did he have just one goal line play?

Who said he only had one play?