Official FIRE Mike McCarthy thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Harlan Huckleby]

Finding some huge blunder in the rostering of RBs at the start of the season is simply hindsight analysis.

"huge blunder" is high bar, grasshopper

they made a mistake on Starks. As to whether it was reasonably foreseeable, we'll must have to agree to disagree without being agreeable.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Before this season, I had a vague realization that some positions on offense and defense were more important than others. This season has driven home that distinction. Although it took defensive coordinators a few games to scheme the Packers' loss of Shields, it's been driven home the last 5 weeks. It's also shown me how much of an impact Matthews had on the pass defense in general, and the pass rush in particular. His loss has stunted Perry and Jones and left us with no pass rush if we're not rushing 5 or more. The loss of Shields, who could be put on an island, has left someone open nearly every play, usually wide open. Every 3rd down, no matter the distance needed, our pass rush goes nowhere, and someone is open past the sticks. This has allowed average to poor offensive teams like the Colts to score over 30 points, and good offensive teams, like the Falcons and Titans, to score almost at will.

We focus a lot on the offense in this forum, and that is truly McCarthy's domain. We still don't see the dominant offense that we had pre-2014. My feeling is that we will never see it due to a combination of age, injury, coaching stubbornness, and defensive advances. I don't think the drop-off in offense makes much difference in the big picture of wins and losses if your pass defense can't get you off the field.

I believe Cliff Christl said that the difference between all teams in the league were the number of plus players (game changers and players that made others better) that each team had. During that 2010 season, we had Woodson, Matthews, Collins, and possibly Raji on defense. On offense we had Rodgers (probably a double plus) and maybe Jennings and Finley. We lost only Finley for an appreciable amount of time.

This year, at the beginning of the season, we had Shields, Matthews, and possibly Daniels on defense. On offense, we had Rodgers (not a double plus anymore) and Lacy. The only plus players we're playing with are Daniels and a fading Rodgers.

I agree with you that this season is a lot different than 2010 for impact of injuries. If it's true that plus players are the difference between teams in this league, we're really going to struggle to make 8-8 with this roster.

Great post. I was thinking earlier today that we lack difference makers on our team, compared to others. Even if all the guys you mentioned were healthy, we can't measure up to teams like New England, Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, and a bunch more, including Dallas. We have severely overrated the talent on this team.

[woodbuck27]

Before this season, I had a vague realization that some positions on offense and defense were more important than others. This season has driven home that distinction. Although it took defensive coordinators a few games to scheme the Packers' loss of Shields, it's been driven home the last 5 weeks. It's also shown me how much of an impact Matthews had on the pass defense in general, and the pass rush in particular. His loss has stunted Perry and Jones and left us with no pass rush if we're not rushing 5 or more. The loss of Shields, who could be put on an island, has left someone open nearly every play, usually wide open. Every 3rd down, no matter the distance needed, our pass rush goes nowhere, and someone is open past the sticks. This has allowed average to poor offensive teams like the Colts to score over 30 points, and good offensive teams, like the Falcons and Titans, to score almost at will.

We focus a lot on the offense in this forum, and that is truly McCarthy's domain. We still don't see the dominant offense that we had pre-2014. My feeling is that we will never see it due to a combination of age, injury, coaching stubbornness, and defensive advances. I don't think the drop-off in offense makes much difference in the big picture of wins and losses if your pass defense can't get you off the field.

I believe Cliff Christl said that the difference between all teams in the league were the number of plus players (game changers and players that made others better) that each team had. During that 2010 season, we had Woodson, Matthews, Collins, and possibly Raji on defense. On offense we had Rodgers (probably a double plus) and maybe Jennings and Finley. We lost only Finley for an appreciable amount of time.

This year, at the beginning of the season, we had Shields, Matthews, and possibly Daniels on defense. On offense, we had Rodgers (not a double plus anymore) and Lacy. The only plus players we're playing with are Daniels and a fading Rodgers.

I agree with you that this season is a lot different than 2010 for impact of injuries. If it's true that plus players are the difference between teams in this league, we're really going to struggle to make 8-8 with this roster.

An excellent a damning post. The facts really do hurt.

Repped

[beveaux1]

Great post. I was thinking earlier today that we lack difference makers on our team, compared to others. Even if all the guys you mentioned were healthy, we can't measure up to teams like New England, Seattle, Arizona, Atlanta, and a bunch more, including Dallas. We have severely overrated the talent on this team.

In truth, our coaches expect that young players will advance to become a plus player. Based upon the end of last year and the first couple of games this year, I thought Perry was ready to advance. I also felt that Jones would become a presence. On offense, only Adams and Montgomery has shown any growth, though not to the point that they would be a difference maker. Bakh is certainly better and has begun to justify his contract, but again, not a difference maker.

When one player depends on another player to shine ( Perry, Jones), I don't think they will ever be a plus player, but could be a contributor. Injury has robbed this team of almost any chance for the playoffs. With the high expectations of the fans, it may cost our head coach his job.

[texaspackerbacker]

A lot of times, threads like this are over-reactions to short term shit and generally not justified. This time it's different. McCarthy is either stupidly stubborn or stubbornly stupid - take your pick. The bland play calling, the run first mania, the tendency to take the ball and the initiative away from Aaron Rodgers, all that crap has been there for several seasons now if not forever. McCarthy, however, got away with it for a long time - failing to maximize things, but thanks to superb play from Aaron Rodgers, doing a lot of winning anyway. This year, I will grudgingly admit Rodgers has been down very very very slightly. The major factor, though, is that our pass receivers simply are not fast enough/talented enough/whatever to beat man coverage, and word has gotten around about that among D Coordinators. Even teams that prefer zone are going man on the Packers with disgusting success.

The other and probably even more blameworthy person is Ted Thompson. It's becomes disgustingly obvious with every non-Packer game I see how other GMs have put together much more talented teams (other than Aaron Rodgers, of course). Thompson's whole reputation as a GM derives from having Aaron Rodgers playing for him. Other than Rodgers, Thompson has failed miserably to maximize things - and it can't just be explained away by drafting so low.

Do NOT just fire the whole staff, though. Last Sunday's game was a pretty sorry example, but the overall good defensive performance of the Packers has a LOT to do with Capers' scheming. The D personnel Ted Thompson has provided him falls way short of the success the Packers have had. Without Capers' schemes and compensation, our D would be perfectly horrible.

I am still optimistic that the Packers will snap out of the funk, win the division, and go far in the playoffs. If that happens, however, it would be a damn shame if it resulted in saving McCarthy's job - or Thompson's for that matter.

[Patler]

"huge blunder" is high bar, grasshopper

they made a mistake on Starks. As to whether it was reasonably foreseeable, we'll must have to agree to disagree without being agreeable.

I didn't set the bar there, I have been following up on a comment early in this thread that set the standard. Several others quoted it in the discussion of running backs, and I have been questioning those who agreed with the original comment. The original standard was set by King Friday in this post:

The RB situation this season is ENTIRELY on Thompson. That is an enormous blunder for the GM of a professional football team.

Do you want to quibble over the differences in King Friday's use of "enormous blunder" and my later use of "huge blunder"?

It just seems to me that a veteran back who had 993 total yards (148/601 rushing, 43/392 receiving) as the reserve running back in 2015 shouldn't be thrown out in favor of the run of the mill backs they had in camp.

Aren't you deciding it was a mistake simply because in the first four games of this season he had 24 carries for 42 yards? That is an awful small sample, and clearly is a hindsight evaluation.

I thought Starks looked pretty good on his TD on Sunday, he waited for the opening and accelerated through the hole straight for the goal line. I thought he also looked OK on several of his carries, he ran hard and picked up what was there. He might not be the quickest back in the league, but I thought on Sunday he looked like the back we saw in 2015 and the five seasons before that.

If he is the same back he has been most of his career (and I'm not saying that he is) can we agree that it was not a "blunder" or "mistake" to have kept him? Based just on how he played on Sunday (running, receiving and pass protecting) do you think it was a mistake to keep him rather than someone else?

[mmmdk]

Firing McCarthy + other coaches + TT is better than letting Rodgers rot for his last productive years with no championship in sight. Another option could be trading Rodgers and "believing" in Stubby & co. I don't like the latter at all. Keeping everything at the Green Bay status quo and fire Capers is probably what will happen. Truly sad and terrible mismanagement for a quater of a century with two HOF QBs. Just horrible.

[call_me_ishmael]

I would personally be shocked if they move on from the HC, but I would not be shocked if several of the high priced players like Sam Shields, TJ Lang, Julius Peppers, and Eddie Lacy are not back. Boy, this is such a young team. Clay isn't going anywhere despite not being on the field much. I can't imagine then cutting Jordy or Randall Cobb.

[Pugger]

Before this season, I had a vague realization that some positions on offense and defense were more important than others. This season has driven home that distinction. Although it took defensive coordinators a few games to scheme the Packers' loss of Shields, it's been driven home the last 5 weeks. It's also shown me how much of an impact Matthews had on the pass defense in general, and the pass rush in particular. His loss has stunted Perry and Jones and left us with no pass rush if we're not rushing 5 or more. The loss of Shields, who could be put on an island, has left someone open nearly every play, usually wide open. Every 3rd down, no matter the distance needed, our pass rush goes nowhere, and someone is open past the sticks. This has allowed average to poor offensive teams like the Colts to score over 30 points, and good offensive teams, like the Falcons and Titans, to score almost at will.

We focus a lot on the offense in this forum, and that is truly McCarthy's domain. We still don't see the dominant offense that we had pre-2014. My feeling is that we will never see it due to a combination of age, injury, coaching stubbornness, and defensive advances. I don't think the drop-off in offense makes much difference in the big picture of wins and losses if your pass defense can't get you off the field.

I believe Cliff Christl said that the difference between all teams in the league were the number of plus players (game changers and players that made others better) that each team had. During that 2010 season, we had Woodson, Matthews, Collins, and possibly Raji on defense. On offense we had Rodgers (probably a double plus) and maybe Jennings and Finley. We lost only Finley for an appreciable amount of time.

This year, at the beginning of the season, we had Shields, Matthews, and possibly Daniels on defense. On offense, we had Rodgers (not a double plus anymore) and Lacy. The only plus players we're playing with are Daniels and a fading Rodgers.

I agree with you that this season is a lot different than 2010 for impact of injuries. If it's true that plus players are the difference between teams in this league, we're really going to struggle to make 8-8 with this roster.

This!

Is Rodgers fading or is his WR corps unable to get open? Yes, some of his passes are off the mark but every QB has crappy throws. But if AR has to hold onto the ball forever waiting for someone to get open that can screw everything up IMO.

[Pugger]

So is there sentiment here that it's MM who's not coaching up the talent, or is it Ted who's not giving MM enough talent, or is it all just getting stale, like an old marriage in which the combatants - er, partners - end up abusing one another behind each other's back all the time?

And if you did ditch MM, or MM and Ted, would a new coach really have any authority over Rodgers, if any needed to be exercised?

What to do, what to do? Why don't they just get their shit together and go 10-6 then get on a run and win the SB so we don't have to have these agonizing conversations?

Wh

When things were going south Ted brought in a new HC (McCarthy) and in his second season at the helm Favre was back in the MVP discussion so why wouldn't Rodgers benefit from a fresh POV?

[Pugger]

I AM A HIGHLY SUCCESSFUL NFL COACH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!

Yes, he is. You don't have the best regular season winning percentage just this side of BB, get your team into the playoffs seasons 8 out of 9 seasons and win a SB by being lousy. I hate to break it to you but he will go down as one of the best HCs in our franchise's history. However. Things aren't so rosy now. His team is circling the drain and he seems to not have any answers. Nothing lasts forever. I agree with the majority - it is time for a change. But to say he hasn't been successful is being very disingenuous.

[pbmax]

snip
letting Rodgers rot for his last productive years with no championship in sight

The number of new admins who won a Super Bowl in their first three years is vanishingly small. The far more likely result is continued mediocrity. And the same odds for a Super Bowl revival apply to falling into the toilet.

The idea that change brings improvement is dumb. The greatest probability is that it stays the same or gets worse.

[Carolina_Packer]

This!

Is Rodgers fading or is his WR corps unable to get open? Yes, some of his passes are off the mark but every QB has crappy throws. But if AR has to hold onto the ball forever waiting for someone to get open that can screw everything up IMO.

It would be interesting to know on how many drop-backs since the start of the slide last season has A-Rod been able to run a clean play where he was able to do what the play was designed to do because he had a clean pocket AND his primary or secondary read got the right separation to make Rodgers comfortable enough to pull the trigger.

Seems like a lot of scramble drill, sand lot type plays because he has to hold the ball waiting for something else to develop.

[Carolina_Packer]

I still think TT/Murphy had to have been upset with the Seattle playoff blowup, and have to see that the team has been sliding ever since.

I agree that they couldn't have been happy with that playoff loss, but when the team went 6-0 to start 2015, there weren't many signs of a hangover. The offense had just come off of two good games in week 2 vs. Seattle and week 3 vs. KC, then they went on the road to San Fran in week 4 and had a meh offensive effort. Typically, in the last few years you'd see them come back home after that and rev up the offense, but in game 5, they played a lackluster game vs. the Rams who picked off Rodgers twice which had not been done at Lambeau since 2012. Then the next week, they had a so-so offensive game vs. the Super Chargers. I think that three game stretch was the beginning of the struggles. Then they had a bye and came off the bye to face the Broncos, and Panthers, and the rest of the season is history.

I still think injuries at WR had as much to do with the offenses struggles, as much as Lacy's weight struggles, which led to the decline in the run game, allowing defenses to go back to committing more personnel to pass coverage. There were no plug and play WR's to make up for the losses at WR whether season-ending, or nagging. Injuries always expose the quality of a team's depth.

[beveaux1]

Yes, he is. You don't have the best regular season winning percentage just this side of BB, get your team into the playoffs seasons 8 out of 9 seasons and win a SB by being lousy. I hate to break it to you but he will go down as one of the best HCs in our franchise's history. However. Things aren't so rosy now. His team is circling the drain and he seems to not have any answers. Nothing lasts forever. I agree with the majority - it is time for a change. But to say he hasn't been successful is being very disingenuous.

He definitely has been a highly successful coach. During this same period, Sean Payton has had a franchise QB with remarkable similarity to Rodgers. Since 2009, the season that they won the SB, the Saints have had 3 winning seasons, 3 losing seasons, and they have the same record we have this year. We, on the other hand, have not had a single losing record. I understand that Payton was suspended for one of the losing years, but he has not been nearly as successful as McCarthy overall.

I also understand that factors outside of his control may have influenced his record. The Saints do not have the GM and front office staff that the Packers are blessed with. Also, Brees has not shown the slippage that Rodgers appears to be experiencing in the past 2 years.

We're very mindful of the success of Belichik and Brady, but there are other franchises that compare very favorably to us that do not have the same success.