Official 2017 NFL draft thread

[gbgary]

a mock on nfl network just had us picking mixon. (bucky brooks)

[Joemailman]

a mock on nfl network just had us picking mixon. (bucky brooks)

That comforts me because I think Bucky Brooks is a terrible analyst. I don't think we'll ever see TT use a 1st round pick on a RB, especially one with Mixon's red flag.

[pbmax]

Razul Douglas ran a 4.59 at the Combine.

Wasn't he in Batman Begins?

[Maxie the Taxi]

Wasn't he in Batman Begins?

A distant cousin maybe.

[pbmax]

I like this scout. He calls teams idiots (possibly including the Packers) rather than the kids in the draft.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2702751-mike-freemans-10-point-stance-scouts-take-on-latest-nfl-draft-buzz

[Maxie the Taxi]

I've been fooling with the draft simulator for a couple of years now and I agree with the scout that this draft is "top heavy." After the 2nd or 3rd round it's slim pickings. I wouldn't be surprised if TT traded up for a guy they really value/need.

[texaspackerbacker]

That and the fact that we need a little bit of Quality rather than a lot of quantity.

[pbmax]

Silverstein:

Fresno St. H-back Aaron Peck, 6-3, 235, 4.63, 37 VJ, 22 bench, among #Packers' draft visits. Stats: 46-630-3 in '16. Missed '15 w/foot inj.

[texaspackerbacker]

WHY would the Packers have any interest at all in yet another TE or FB?

[pbmax]

WHY would the Packers have any interest at all in yet another TE or FB?

They only have 4 on the roster. They have carried five before.

This is more plausible than the RB has a huge hole argument.

[wist43]

That and the fact that we need a little bit of Quality rather than a lot of quantity.

TT is all about quantity over quality.

[Smidgeon]

TT is all about quantity over quality.

You really think that if TT had a choice between LT and three Datone Joneses, he'd pick the three Datone Joneses? The truth is that no one knows who the next LT or Ray Lewis is. The more picks in the draft you get, the more likely it is to hit on someone, especially when the "surefire" players have all been taken already (Top 10ish).

I'm sure there's data out there (that I would love to have) that has the possibility of drafting a star attached to each draft slot. I'd love to take that data up against a trade chart and see if moving up 10 spots in the draft adds as much potential quality as losing next year's number 1 draft pick would lose. My gut tells me the losses outweigh the gains unless you're starting from the middle of the pack and moving into the Top 10. Starting at the bottom of the round, you have to pray that you're lucky.

TT has only had a few mid or top of the round picks:
2006: AJ Hawk (#5). Reliable starter, eminently replaceable (but wasn't) in a draft that was overall just terrible.
2007: Justin Harrell (#16). A miss. Injuries killed his career. I don't like calling injured players busts as I reserve that for the Ahmad Carrolls of the NFL, but you can if you want
2009: BJ Raji (#9). Flashed very brightly in 2010 helping lead to a Super Bowl. I don't know how I'd rank him otherwise, but I'd trade the #9 pick in the draft for that kind of performance in a Super Bowl winning year.

Those are the only times TT picked within the Top 20. After Rodgers first starting season, he hasn't picked inside the 20s (barring a trade up, this will be the eighth year in a row). Restocking and finding quality is tough when two thirds of the league has picked their favorites before you get a chance.

Here are the rest of TT's first round picks in draft order:
21 (2014): HHCD - appears to be long term starter and a good player
23 (2010): Bulaga - long term starter and a good player
26 (2009): Matthews - the second first round pick that year, and someone who had several great seasons to start his career but has tapered off due to injuries; still a good player
27 (2016): Clark - too early to tell, but he flashed in the playoffs against a good Dallas O-line
28 (2012): Perry - not a flashy pass rusher, but a very good run defender, and some argue more important to the D than Matthews because of that
30 (2015): Randall - a terrible sophomore campaign that followed a very promising rookie campaign--he's got one more year to turn it around before we Casey Hayward him.
30 (2008): Traded into second round for Jordy Nelson
32 (2011): Sherrod - along with Harrell, the only (so far--Randall, I'm watching you) outright miss by TT in the first round, but again, due to injuries; as I recall though, many people hated the Harrell pick but loved the Sherrod pick at the time. Both failed for the same three reasons: injuries, injuries, injuries.

Anyway, with only 2 out of 12 (maybe 3 depending on how Randall rebounds) first round picks outright failing to deliver value for the Packers, I'd say he's done a pretty good job picking through the leftovers at the end of the round.

If Clark doesn't turn into something special though, I would think we're due for another star in this draft. It's random and completely unpredictable, but we haven't gotten a bonafide star for a while.

P.S. Sorry for the text wall. Just had my second cup of coffee.

[BZnDallas]

Great post Smidgeon! For some on this site, if you're not Ditka going after Ricky Williams then you aren't doing enough. Just is what it is I guess. I do appreciate the distraction during the off season though.

[hoosier]

Silverstein:

Fresno St. H-back Aaron Peck, 6-3, 235, 4.63, 37 VJ, 22 bench, among #Packers' draft visits. Stats: 46-630-3 in '16. Missed '15 w/foot inj.

Aren't most of their visits guys who aren't expected to be drafted and who might get signed to PS? If I had to guess I would say this is about filling the 90 man roster and potential practice squad material.

[pbmax]

You really think that if TT had a choice between LT and three Datone Joneses, he'd pick the three Datone Joneses? The truth is that no one knows who the next LT or Ray Lewis is. The more picks in the draft you get, the more likely it is to hit on someone, especially when the "surefire" players have all been taken already (Top 10ish).

I'm sure there's data out there (that I would love to have) that has the possibility of drafting a star attached to each draft slot. I'd love to take that data up against a trade chart and see if moving up 10 spots in the draft adds as much potential quality as losing next year's number 1 draft pick would lose. My gut tells me the losses outweigh the gains unless you're starting from the middle of the pack and moving into the Top 10. Starting at the bottom of the round, you have to pray that you're lucky.

Here you go: http://www.nber.org/papers/w11270.pdf (Cade Massey, Richard H. Thaler)

NFL teams (and it goes without saying, message board commenters) are over-confident about their ability to succeed with higher draft picks (the "right to choose"). They incorrectly ignore or underestimate the unknown variables and the resulting inability to make correct picks above 50% of the time. Therefore they eschew the obvious mitigation strategy of acquiring more picks.