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The Vegas 2 Step

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  • #1

    The Vegas 2 Step

    Once in a while, Vegas comes out with a spread so out of whack, that the public is salavating to bet on it. I've seen this game before my friends. The Bears laying 3.5 to a team with no O line and 2 rookie LB's look's like the lock of the century.

    On paper, this one is'nt even close. The Bear D should man-handle our run game forcing Brett to go 3 and out or take chances and the turnovers begin. This game should'nt even be close.

    The real clue is that the Public is chomping at the bit betting on the Bears and yet the line stays the same, or only moved a half point.

    Take heart Packer fans. Vegas does'nt give money away. We've been hit over the head for the last month with the constant barrage from the experts at how bad we are, yet we are only a 3.5-4 point dog? Something stinks here and it ain't my dog's breath!
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  • #2
    I agree. I was surprised by the 3.5. But then again when u figure in the homefield advantage, which is usually 3pts. you are in essence looking at a 6.5 spread (not on paper). Make sense?

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    • #3
      Home Fied

      Originally posted by GrnBay007
      I agree. I was surprised by the 3.5. But then again when u figure in the homefield advantage, which is usually 3pts. you are in essence looking at a 6.5 spread (not on paper). Make sense?
      The HFA is already factored into the spread before it comes out. That's what I mean about this line. If you place a value of 3 points on the HFA,(which could be debated do the the Lambeau mystique being gone), they are saying the bears are a 1/2 point better than the Pack.

      They are trying to entice the betting public to take the bears.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: Home Fied

        Originally posted by Packnut
        Originally posted by GrnBay007
        I agree. I was surprised by the 3.5. But then again when u figure in the homefield advantage, which is usually 3pts. you are in essence looking at a 6.5 spread (not on paper). Make sense?
        The HFA is already factored into the spread before it comes out. That's what I mean about this line. If you place a value of 3 points on the HFA,(which could be debated do the the Lambeau mystique being gone), they are saying the bears are a 1/2 point better than the Pack.

        They are trying to entice the betting public to take the bears.
        Actually, they are saying the Bears are 6.5 points better than the Pack. If the game was in Chicago, they would be saying the Bears are 0.5 points better than the Pack.
        "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

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        • #5
          I was suprised but maybe Favre is an intangible that lowers the odds. He's carved up the Bears many times before.
          Thanks Ted!

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          • #6
            NFC North games are usually very close games. Both sides REALLY want to win. The Bears offense is junk. That probably helps the Pack in the odds. We will know a lot more about both teams on Sunday night.

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            • #7
              Re: Home Fied

              Originally posted by HarveyWallbangers
              Originally posted by Packnut
              Originally posted by GrnBay007
              I agree. I was surprised by the 3.5. But then again when u figure in the homefield advantage, which is usually 3pts. you are in essence looking at a 6.5 spread (not on paper). Make sense?
              The HFA is already factored into the spread before it comes out. That's what I mean about this line. If you place a value of 3 points on the HFA,(which could be debated do the the Lambeau mystique being gone), they are saying the bears are a 1/2 point better than the Pack.

              They are trying to entice the betting public to take the bears.
              Actually, they are saying the Bears are 6.5 points better than the Pack. If the game was in Chicago, they would be saying the Bears are 0.5 points better than the Pack.
              Harvey, I think someone switched your plus and minus keys.

              In Green Bay, Bears are 3.5 better
              Neutral Site, Bears are 6.5 better
              In Chicago, Bears are 9.5 better

              And I confess that this line looked out of whack to me. Maybe counting on emotion in division game at home with new coach.
              Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: Home Fied

                Originally posted by pbmax
                Harvey, I think someone switched your plus and minus keys.

                In Green Bay, Bears are 3.5 better
                Neutral Site, Bears are 6.5 better
                In Chicago, Bears are 9.5 better

                And I confess that this line looked out of whack to me. Maybe counting on emotion in division game at home with new coach.
                No, packnut stated that the oddsmakers are saying the Bears are only 0.5 points better than the Pack. I told him that they are saying the Bears are 6.5 points better than the Pack (backed up by your post). If the line was 3.5 and the game was in Chicago, then his assertion would be correct.
                "There's a lot of interest in the draft. It's great. But quite frankly, most of the people that are commenting on it don't know anything about what they are talking about."--Ted Thompson

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: Home Fied

                  Originally posted by HarveyWallbangers
                  Originally posted by pbmax
                  Harvey, I think someone switched your plus and minus keys.

                  In Green Bay, Bears are 3.5 better
                  Neutral Site, Bears are 6.5 better
                  In Chicago, Bears are 9.5 better

                  And I confess that this line looked out of whack to me. Maybe counting on emotion in division game at home with new coach.
                  No, packnut stated that the oddsmakers are saying the Bears are only 0.5 points better than the Pack. I told him that they are saying the Bears are 6.5 points better than the Pack (backed up by your post). If the line was 3.5 and the game was in Chicago, then his assertion would be correct.
                  Gotcha. My bad jumping the gun.
                  Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: The Vegas 2 Step

                    Originally posted by Packnut
                    Something stinks here and it ain't my dog's breath!
                    As Jimmy Masterlock always says....RUN TO THE SMELL!

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      bookmakers want half the betting public betting on each side so they move the spread to accomplish this. in other words 50% betting on the Pack and 50% betting on the bears. it's not a true indication of how good a team is but it's their interpretation of how they believe the public will go when they set the odds...then they move it accordingly.

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by gbgary
                        bookmakers want half the betting public betting on each side so they move the spread to accomplish this. in other words 50% betting on the Pack and 50% betting on the bears. it's not a true indication of how good a team is but it's their interpretation of how they believe the public will go when they set the odds...then they move it accordingly.

                        That's a damn fine explanation Gary.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by gbgary
                          bookmakers want half the betting public betting on each side so they move the spread to accomplish this. in other words 50% betting on the Pack and 50% betting on the bears. it's not a true indication of how good a team is but it's their interpretation of how they believe the public will go when they set the odds...then they move it accordingly.
                          There was a University study done about this very question, and while this was true in general, they found that Vegas maximized their return by means OTHER than having equal money on both sides.

                          I will now attempt to find the link.
                          Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

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                          • #14
                            Too elaborate a little further, the books don't make money by the bets themselves, they charge a 10% fee on all winning bets. Therefore, they don't care where the line is, just so the bettors are 50-50.

                            The line does not reflect what Vegas thinks will be the outcome, but what Vegas thinks the public thinks will be the outcome.

                            I agree it is out of whack - must be a lot of rich Packer fans with those green and gold goggles on.

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              The whole point of the small spread is that both teams have anemic offenses...vegas thinks it will be a low scoring affair.
                              Busting drunk drivers in Antarctica since 2006

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