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[Tony Oday]

Not a team in the NFC that can hang with the Pack after we dismantle the Kitties.

[pbmax]

Not afraid of this version of the Giants. They struggled at times with the Eagles.

I am simply haunted by facing them in the playoffs when the Packers should have won.

[RashanGary]

I think this year more than any other the team that gets hot will win the NFC. Every team is beatable this year.

I know the giants team a little. Not afraid. I know the Seahawks. Without earl Thomas they're a different team. Not afraid. Atlanta, Washington, Detroit.... Good teams, but not afraid. Dallas? Now that team has me baffled. I don't know that team very well. I don't know that QB. I know what that Rb is about. He's a beast. I don't know that defense or STs. They might be as good as they look. I just don't know. It might be a year too early for a young QB too. We'll see. We have a punchers chance against anyone. The only team I worry is a favorite in a game against the Packers is Dallas and that's mostly because I know very little about them.

[vince]

I still think the defense will come around, though not happy that Gunter is hurt.

My secret fear is that McCarthy and Rodgers STILL haven't leaned the lessons of the 21 games of offensive futility. The second half versus the Vikings was a tell tale sign.

Which 21 games of futility are you referring to PB? Starting with Denver last year? That seems like a stretch to me.

2015
Opp. - GB Pts. Yds.
CHI - 31 322
SEA - 27 361
KC - 38 448
SF - 17 362
STL - 24 322
SD - 27 370
DEN - 10 140
CAR - 29 402
DET - 16 372
MIN - 30 320
CHI - 13 365
DET - 27 313
DAL - 28 435
OAK - 30 293
ARI - 8 178
MIN - 13 350
Playoffs
WAS - 35 346
ARI - 20 386

2015 - 15th Scoring, 23rd Yards

2016
Opp. - GB Pts. Yds.
JAX - 27 294
MIN - 14 263
DET - 34 324
NYG - 23 406
DAL - 16 372
CHI - 26 406
ATL - 32 331
IND - 26 405
TEN - 25 402
WAS - 24 424
PHI - 27 387
HOU - 21 309
SEA - 38 330
CHI - 30 451
MIN - 38 348

2016 - 6th Scoring, 10th Yards

Granted, Rodgers had his career-worst stretch of games across these 2 years - (compared to the most prolific extended stretch in history), but I'm seeing 4 or 5 sporadic games of "offensive futility" - not 21. Also, "STILL" not having "learned lessons" from "offensive futility" would seem to imply repeated failure to finish games...

In the last 2 years, the Packers are:
- 16-1 when leading at Halftime (4th)
- 16-0 when leading going into the 4th Q (1st)

The Packers' identity is to get leads and finish games. Their (admittedly small sample) results, indicate they're among the best in the business at it. If you look at the full body of results over Rodgers' and/or McCarthy's careers (to enhance reliability/objectivity of sample size and avoid selection-set bias), that holds up in spades.

The offense has certainly contributed to a number of losses over the last couple years, but I'd say the extent has been borderline grossly exaggerated.

[pbmax]

^ All points well made vince. The Offensive malaise has been overstated and the offense (especially Rodgers) have suffered as much from comparisons to themselves as from limited production. I do think some of the difference between 2015 and 2016 is late game scoring of meaningless TDs. For the best example, look at the 2015 game versus Carolina. While the offense had gotten on track, I saw a Carolina team try to take the air out of the ball.

So they are being graded on a high curve. But this team, as you state, lives and dies by its passing game and having a lead. McCarthy and his team do not specialize in late game heroics, grind it out/limited possession Neanderthal fests or world beating defense (thought they were close to this late last year and early this year).

So the passing game dip hurt them and their record.

I have come to believe there were many causes, but the offense by improvisation and holding the ball are still drawbacks against good defenses with pass rushes and in road games. Both these things happen regularly in the playoffs. And if McCathy prints up a hold the ball and look deep game plan in Seattle (or even in New York should that happen), I expect the offense to sputter early - though unlike last year, with Adams and a healthy Nelson, they might be healthy enough and talented enough to do it regardless of opponent.

What I had hoped to see was the continued emphasis on short passing to WR on the move. There is still hope. They have run it earlier this year, they are moving Nelson everywhere and they are using Allison, DickRod and Ripper/Michael to get different personnel on the field. So its possible. I would just love to see it this week on the road to confirm they remember the lesson.

[vince]

I'd say the Packers have solved their issues related to guys getting open/separating downfield through a combination of quick-release passing game plus Jordy getting his legs back, Cook getting healthy and becoming a productive third-down weapon/threat, and Montgomery's emergence as a legitimate dual threat out of the backfield. Now if Adams can stop dropping TD passes look out. Ball security has been consistently good but that'll need to continue obviously.

I think the Packers key to winning in the playoffs this year is avoiding giving up big plays defensively.

Some defensive performance comparisons among NFC playoff teams/contenders...

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2016/opp.htm

Interestingly (to me anyway), the Packers lead all NFC playoff teams/contenders in INT's (16), Takeaways(24) and Sacks (38).

They're tied with DET as the worst defense in yards allowed/play at 5.9.
GB is the league's worst pass defense allowing 8.0 yards/attempt.
They trail SEA, NYG, and DAL in Rushing Yds Allowed/Attempt and are better than the Lions, Falcons and Skins.

They best only the Falcons in Points Allowed.

Only DET allows a higher QB Rating (they're a league-worst 105.0 Rating allowed).
NYG have an NFC best 75.8 QB Rating allowed.

[vince]

I know the giants team a little. Not afraid. I know the Seahawks. Without earl Thomas they're a different team. Not afraid. Atlanta, Washington, Detroit.... Good teams, but not afraid. Dallas? Now that team has me baffled. I don't know that team very well. I don't know that QB. I know what that Rb is about. He's a beast. I don't know that defense or STs. They might be as good as they look. I just don't know. It might be a year too early for a young QB too. We'll see. We have a punchers chance against anyone. The only team I worry is a favorite in a game against the Packers is Dallas and that's mostly because I know very little about them.

Obviously Dallas' o-line manhandled GB's d-line which is a concern IMO. Also, the Packers don't seem to match-up well with Atlanta IMO given Julio Jones' health and Coleman returning to their explosive lineup. I think Kyle Shanahan is the score of the offseason for whichever team hires him. Can't stand his old man but he's put together a diverse and creative - and effective offensive scheme. GB didn't get to Matty Ice in the last matchup like they needed to in order to slow that offense down. That one could be a shoot-out if the Packers get there.

[pbmax]

Cook is a wildcard. Without changing much of the offense, he gives them a third down and red zone weapon that haven't had in years. Plus he is a nightmare matchup one on one.

[Patler]

Cook is a wildcard. Without changing much of the offense, he gives them a third down and red zone weapon that haven't had in years. Plus he is a nightmare matchup one on one.

In some ways I wish Cook had had more of an opportunity to involve himself into the offense. In other ways it is kind of nice having a little mystery involved in how they might use him. Teams don't have an awful lot to go on with respect to Cook in the Packers offense.

[gbgary]

In some ways I wish Cook had had more of an opportunity to involve himself into the offense. In other ways it is kind of nice having a little mystery involved in how they might use him. Teams don't have an awful lot to go on with respect to Cook in the Packers offense.

that's up to mm AND rodgers. cook, like most TEs, runs short routes. Rodgers doesn't look short unless long isn't available. mm will have to call plays specifically for cook to be the first option. with this big-play-or-bust-offense we run that's not going to be very often.

[Guiness]

One way I think the O has improved is a move away from what pb (I think it was him) described as a 'one read then scramble' offense I felt I was watching late last year and early this year. It felt like they were waiting for Cobb to work himself open, and often that was not happening. On D, I don't trust them to bottle up the run...stats said they were doing it early, but Dallas then Tennessee showed how vulnerable they were to power backs.

Will Perry continue to wear the club?

[vince]

Packers are 9-1 this year when holding opponents under 30 points. They're 0-5 when they don't.

The Lions 21st ranked O has scored 30 only twice this year - week 1 vs. IND and week 6 vs. LAR.
They've averaged just under 20 pts./game the last 6 weeks since their bye week and 13th ranked D has allowed just over 20 /game.

Packers 6th ranked O has scored just under 30 pts./game in the same span and 20th ranked D has allowed 22 /game.

[vince]

Packers have climbed all the way up to 12th in the league in red zone scoring efficiency and 3rd in red zone TD's per game.

Ryan Wood authored an article at the end of October indicating they ranked 22nd in RZ efficiency at that time, which was THE major issue for the Packers early point production issues (14th ranked points scored then - now 6th).

[pbmax]

Packers have climbed all the way up to 12th in the league in red zone scoring efficiency and 3rd in red zone TD's per game.

Ryan Wood authored an article at the end of October indicating they ranked 22nd in RZ efficiency at that time, which was THE major issue for the Packers early point production issues (14th ranked points scored then - now 6th).

There were fewer issues this year than last, but red zone was one of the common ones. It obviously helped a great deal when the improved.

[RashanGary]

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I gave us a 7.5% chance of winning the SB. Now I'll bump it to 12.5% and it will go up significantly with a win in Dallas. Packers rolling through playoff teams right now.