Proof that Teams Are Wasting Their Players Prime Years and Windows

[Fritz]

Well, in both wins for Eli, they went through Green Bay in games the Packers were heavily favored. The Giants failed to do anything in the years following those wins. The personnel for the Packers did not appear to be the problem, as they reached the playoffs in 8 of the 9 years and won a super bowl. Sometimes it's just the team that has the hottest hand on a given day. Maybe we'll have the hottest hand this year.

Good point. If Thompson is the one that failed the team, or Rodgers, or the fans, or whomever he's supposedly failed, then why were the Packers favored - by more than the usual three - in both games? Doesn't that suggest that the oddsmakers thought the Packers had more talent?

If anything, Mikey-Mike's record, which Collingsworth portrayed as heartbreaking, those five last-play losses in the playoffs, may indicate a problem with McCarthy's end-of-game coaching.

[pbmax]

Good point. If Thompson is the one that failed the team, or Rodgers, or the fans, or whomever he's supposedly failed, then why were the Packers favored - by more than the usual three - in both games? Doesn't that suggest that the oddsmakers thought the Packers had more talent?

If anything, Mikey-Mike's record, which Collingsworth portrayed as heartbreaking, those five last-play losses in the playoffs, may indicate a problem with McCarthy's end-of-game coaching.

They were heartbreaking and I am not being snide. Some nutty things have had to happen (I don't include the loss to the 49ers at home because the Packer offense was never really in that game). But McCarthy does a lot to LET those nutty things have a chance to happen.

[vince]

When you only consider the end-of-game playoff losses, it's easy to draw specific conclusions but that doesn't make them correct. It's called selection-set bias and it's rampant here.

Four of McCarthy's playoff wins were the result of late stops and/or controlling the clock to end games and seal victories.

2010 Philadelphia Eagles - Tramon Williams late interception in the end zone to seal the one-score (5 point) win.
2010 Chicago Bears - Sam Shields with late interception to seal the one-score (7 point) win.
2010 Pittsburgh Steelers - Tramon Williams with a late 4th down pass deflection to seal the one-score (6point) win.
2014 Dallas Cowboys - Packers run out the last 4 minutes to seal the 2nd half come-from-behind one-score (5 point) win.

So that's 4 late-game wins and 5 late-game losses with an 8-7 overall playoff record. Given such a miniscule data set, there aren't any reliable conclusions to draw here about finishing games in these mostly very competitive battles against the defacto highest echelon of the league - at least if you're willing to be objective about it.

[pbmax]

When you only consider the end-of-game playoff losses, it's easy to draw specific conclusions but that doesn't make them correct. It's called selection-set bias and it's rampant here.

Four of McCarthy's playoff wins were the result of late stops and/or controlling the clock to end games and seal victories.

2010 Philadelphia Eagles - Tramon Williams late interception in the end zone to seal the one-score (5 point) win.
2010 Chicago Bears - Sam Shields with late interception to seal the one-score (7 point) win.
2010 Pittsburgh Steelers - Tramon Williams with a late 4th down pass deflection to seal the one-score (6point) win.
2014 Dallas Cowboys - Packers run out the last 4 minutes to seal the 2nd half come-from-behind one-score (5 point) win.

So that's 4 late-game wins and 5 late-game losses with an 8-7 overall playoff record. Given such a miniscule data set, there aren't any reliable conclusions to draw here about finishing games in these mostly very competitive battles against the defacto highest echelon of the league - at least if you're willing to be objective about it.

What about adding in his record versus playoff teams in the regular season? There is room for improvement.

I don't think selection set bias comes into play in this discussion. We are not arguing that McCarthy is a bad coach (at least I am not) that should be fired due to playoff or close game mismanagement.

I am arguing that his late, close game management can be improved. So could his comeback record, though I have fewer complaints about it.

                                                                     
                                                                     
Rk                     Tm From   To   W    L T  W-L%            Count
1    New England Patriots 2006 2015  31   19 0 0.620    50 Ind. Games
2      Indianapolis Colts 2006 2015  29   27 0 0.518    56 Ind. Games
3     Pittsburgh Steelers 2006 2015  28   30 0 0.483    58 Ind. Games
[B]4       Green Bay Packers 2006 2015  26   30 0 0.464    56 Ind. Games[/B]
5      New Orleans Saints 2006 2015  24   31 0 0.436    55 Ind. Games
6          Denver Broncos 2006 2015  27   35 0 0.435    62 Ind. Games
7        Seattle Seahawks 2006 2015  20   31 0 0.392    51 Ind. Games
8        Baltimore Ravens 2006 2015  23   37 0 0.383    60 Ind. Games
9       Carolina Panthers 2006 2015  22   40 1 0.357    63 Ind. Games
10         Dallas Cowboys 2006 2015  19   38 0 0.333    57 Ind. Games
11    Philadelphia Eagles 2006 2015  18   37 0 0.327    55 Ind. Games
12     San Diego Chargers 2006 2015  18   37 0 0.327    55 Ind. Games
13     Cincinnati Bengals 2006 2015  20   43 2 0.323    65 Ind. Games
14         Miami Dolphins 2006 2015  19   41 0 0.317    60 Ind. Games
15      Arizona Cardinals 2006 2015  18   39 0 0.316    57 Ind. Games
16          New York Jets 2006 2015  16   37 0 0.302    53 Ind. Games
17    San Francisco 49ers 2006 2015  18   42 0 0.300    60 Ind. Games
18      Minnesota Vikings 2006 2015  18   43 1 0.298    62 Ind. Games
19          Chicago Bears 2006 2015  20   48 0 0.294    68 Ind. Games
20        New York Giants 2006 2015  19   46 0 0.292    65 Ind. Games
21    Washington Redskins 2006 2015  16   39 0 0.291    55 Ind. Games
22        Atlanta Falcons 2006 2015  17   42 0 0.288    59 Ind. Games
23         Houston Texans 2006 2015  18   47 0 0.277    65 Ind. Games
24       Tennessee Titans 2006 2015  15   48 0 0.238    63 Ind. Games
25   Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2006 2015  15   50 0 0.231    65 Ind. Games
26   Jacksonville Jaguars 2006 2015  14   49 0 0.222    63 Ind. Games
27     Kansas City Chiefs 2006 2015  12   43 0 0.218    55 Ind. Games
28          Buffalo Bills 2006 2015  12   50 0 0.194    62 Ind. Games
29         St. Louis Rams 2006 2015  12   53 1 0.189    66 Ind. Games
30       Cleveland Browns 2006 2015  10   60 0 0.143    70 Ind. Games
31        Oakland Raiders 2006 2015   9   54 0 0.143    63 Ind. Games
32          Detroit Lions 2006 2015   8   58 0 0.121    66 Ind. Games
                    Total 2006 2015 591 1324 5  .309             1920

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/4/2017.

[vince]

What about adding in his record versus playoff teams in the regular season?

                                                               
                                                               
Rk                  Tm From   To  W  L T  W-L%            Count
1    Green Bay Packers 2006 2015 26 30 0 0.464    56 Ind. Games
                 Total 2006 2015 26 30 0  .464               56

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/4/2017.

Inherently biased and leads to biased conclusions. It absolutely comes into play if you are intending to draw conclusions about a general question (McCarthy and finishing games) but are determined to use only the results that are most likely to justify a preconceived conclusion.

If you pre-select only the games you know are likely to suggest the poorest result (only consider the games against the self-defining best teams in the league each year), SHOCKER - you're like to get the worst result.

The opposite of that would be to argue that he's the best ever at finishing games - just look at 2010's playoff run.

The only way to objectively gauge McCarthy's success in finishing games is to consider the entire population of his results - not a pre-selected subset that can be reliably predicted to skew the results before you even look at them.

[Zool]

That data shows he has the 4th best win percentage against playoff teams in the last 10 seasons.

[vince]

If you want to focus in on finishing playoff games based on some presupposition that there's something inherently unique about those games, that's a legitimate question but the data set (15 games) is far, far too small to draw any reliable conclusion so that's an exercise in futility.

[pbmax]

Inherently biased and leads to biased conclusions.

If you pre-select only the games you know are likely to suggest the poorest result (only consider the games against the self-defining best teams in the league each year), SHOCKER - you're like to get the worst result.

The opposite of that would be to argue that he's the best ever at finishing games - just look at 2010's playoff run.

The only way to objectively gauge McCarthy's success in finishing games is to consider the entire population of his results - not a pre-selected subset that can be reliably predicted to skew the results before you even look at them.

I edited my post to include everyone's results so that comparison's across teams and situation are possible. McCarthy is good. There is room for improvement. I don't just want him to have a higher win percentage, I want to improve late game management regardless of opponent.

How about this table? There might not be as much room for improvement as I thought. His record in game that the team had a 4 point lead or greater entering the 4th Quarter.

                                                                                  
                                                                                  
Rk                                  Tm From   To    W   L T  W-L%            Count
1                 New England Patriots 2006 2016  101   7 0 0.935   108 Ind. Games
2                    Green Bay Packers 2006 2016   85   5 0 0.944    90 Ind. Games
3                  Pittsburgh Steelers 2006 2016   81   8 0 0.910    89 Ind. Games
4                   San Diego Chargers 2006 2016   73  13 0 0.849    86 Ind. Games
5                     Baltimore Ravens 2006 2016   75   9 0 0.893    84 Ind. Games
6                   New Orleans Saints 2006 2016   75   8 0 0.904    83 Ind. Games
7                    Carolina Panthers 2006 2016   69  10 1 0.869    80 Ind. Games
8                      New York Giants 2006 2016   67  11 0 0.859    78 Ind. Games
9                   Indianapolis Colts 2006 2016   73   4 0 0.948    77 Ind. Games
10                    Seattle Seahawks 2006 2016   68   9 0 0.883    77 Ind. Games

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 1/4/2017.

[pbmax]

That data shows he has the 4th best win percentage against playoff teams in the last 10 seasons.

Yes. I don't want him replaced. I want him to improve.

[texaspackerbacker]

Anyone who thinks a superstar QB automatically gets you to the playoffs on a regular basis needs to reckon with Dan Fouts and Phillip Rivers.

True, but it could be damn near automatic if you surround that superstar QB with good talent. Fouts and Rivers were/are very good, but I'd argue well below superstar level.

[3irty1]

That data shows he has the 4th best win percentage against playoff teams in the last 10 seasons.

First best in the NFC.

[bobblehead]

and Eli has two wins and he's not near elite
Does that go back to the GM ?

BUT...and I dread saying this because we play them sunday. In his two SB runs he was off the charts ridiculous making stoopid accurate throws with 2" margins 30 yards downfield where receivers had to fingertip (or helmet) catch fastballs....and it happened over and over.

[bobblehead]

Having top notch personnel will get you into the playoffs because the peculiar bounces of the oblong ball will be somewhat normalized over the course of a 16 game season. The playoffs are a one and done. A tipped ball interception or a fumble that we fail to recover or an injury to a key player can be the difference in a win or a loss.
.

Yep, I love Micah Hyde, but as a rookie Krapernick hit him right in the hands for the game ender and....doink!

[bobblehead]

Good point. If Thompson is the one that failed the team, or Rodgers, or the fans, or whomever he's supposedly failed, then why were the Packers favored - by more than the usual three - in both games? Doesn't that suggest that the oddsmakers thought the Packers had more talent?

If anything, Mikey-Mike's record, which Collingsworth portrayed as heartbreaking, those five last-play losses in the playoffs, may indicate a problem with McCarthy's end-of-game coaching.

He consistently allows teams he has beaten to have a chance at a fluke/great play win to beat us.

[bobblehead]

When you only consider the end-of-game playoff losses, it's easy to draw specific conclusions but that doesn't make them correct. It's called selection-set bias and it's rampant here.

Four of McCarthy's playoff wins were the result of late stops and/or controlling the clock to end games and seal victories.

2010 Philadelphia Eagles - Tramon Williams late interception in the end zone to seal the one-score (5 point) win.
2010 Chicago Bears - Sam Shields with late interception to seal the one-score (7 point) win.
2010 Pittsburgh Steelers - Tramon Williams with a late 4th down pass deflection to seal the one-score (6point) win.
2014 Dallas Cowboys - Packers run out the last 4 minutes to seal the 2nd half come-from-behind one-score (5 point) win.

So that's 4 late-game wins and 5 late-game losses with an 8-7 overall playoff record. Given such a miniscule data set, there aren't any reliable conclusions to draw here about finishing games in these mostly very competitive battles against the defacto highest echelon of the league - at least if you're willing to be objective about it.

But you sort of make the point for us. Often times he takes his foot off the gas on offense, puts the D into a shell (spreading the field which creates huge running lanes) and allows teams back into games they have effectively lost. Then at the end with said team in position to win he needs the D to make a stand. In 2010 we got to line up Shields and in his prime Tramon, with Collins and Woodson. They managed to make the stand......

BUT...when you put your D on its heels for a full Q and a half counting possessions and then say "all right boys tighten up again" its very hard on a player to get back the intesity. Same goes for an offense that has had 3 straight 3 and outs because you run/run/pass/punt and the D knows your going to do it because you have done the same thing for 12 straight years.