Wild Card Week: They Might Be Giants

[vince]

Look,at who they have played in the last few,weeks. Chicago, Det, Cle, Dallas, Phi, Wash.

Other than Dallas not a bunch of top flight teams.

Agreed. plus Pittsburgh was in there who beat them.

Overall, they played 7 teams who were 20th or lower in points scored, including both Cleveland and LA who were 31 and 32 respectively - plus Baltimore, Cincinnati and Minnesota on top of Detroit and Chicago who all struggled offensively this year.

Of those teams, only Minnesota beat them.

[vince]

The other side of that is they've won 9 of their last 11, and also have faced the Skins (1-1), Cowboys (2-0), Saints (W), Steelers (L) and Packers (L) who were all top 12.

Eagles (1-1) were middle of the road at 16th.

5-4 against good/decent offensive teams.
6-1 against bad offensive teams

4 of their 5 losses came on the road.

[Patler]

In the last six weeks, the Packers have scored:

31 on the #13 scoring defense.
38 on the #6 scoring defense.
30 on the #24 scoring defense.
38 on the #3 scoring defense.
21 on the #11 scoring defense.
27 on the #12 scoring defense.

The Giants have a good defense, but the Packers have shown they are capable of putting up a lot of points against some good defenses.

[texaspackerbacker]

This - and for that matter, any game - is a helluva lot more about how the Packers play than the opponent. Aaron Rodgers on his game and with his receivers getting even marginally open of course, will beat any defense. The Packers D is opportunistic, and Eli tends to screw up, especially when pressured.

I see the Packers as continuing their streak and winning this game - approximately the same kind of game as against Detroit, maybe easier.

[RashanGary]

These are two evenly matched teams. Home field gives the edge to Green Bay.

My son is a Giants fan. Were going to the game together at lambeau. I've been to cold games. I'm a northerner. I know how to dress. Can't wait!!!!!

I'm glad he gets the memory of being at a cold game at lambeau too. Every time he sees the breath on TV during cold games he'll know what it's like cuz he was there! Really cool memory!

[Pugger]

The Packers are capable of making bad QBs look good, but Eli has not been his previous self. Even by his own middling standards, he has been terrible this year.

Fitz, their rush offense is worse than their pass offense. Passing in 21st in DVOA at Football Outsider. Rush game is 26th. Packers are 7th and 5th after being in neutral at the beginning of the season.

Pack's defense is 22nd versus pass, 14th versus run.

14th? According to the stat page on nfl.com we are 8th.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=2&defensiveStatisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=ALL&role=OPP&season=2016&seasonType=REG&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG&d-447263-o=1&d-447263-n=1

[vince]

He's using Football Outsiders' advanced statistics which take into account quality of opponent and I believe also weighs more recent performance more heavily as the season progresses.

[vince]

In the last six weeks, the Packers have scored:

31 on the #13 scoring defense.
38 on the #6 scoring defense.
30 on the #24 scoring defense.
38 on the #3 scoring defense.
21 on the #11 scoring defense.
27 on the #12 scoring defense.

The Giants have a good defense, but the Packers have shown they are capable of putting up a lot of points against some good defenses.

That Houston game in which the Packers were held to 21 points is the template for how the Giants want the game to go.

Rodgers fumbled at the 2 yard line in the first quarter (turnovers and/or serious pressure can affect Rodgers) and then the Texans managed to hold the Packers down to a 7-7 tie late into the third quarter by holding the Packers down (with 4 punts and a failed 4th down conversion) and controlling the clock through a balanced attack that wasn't overly productive but supported their defense. Then Rodgers finally was able to take control with a 98 yard TD drive late in the 3rd followed by an 89-yard TD drive in the 4th.

For the game, Houston won the ToP battle and held Green Bay to 56 offensive plays. It wasn't enough obviously, but it gave them a shot.

I think it will take an early turnover by the Packers and/or an early big play by the Giants offense for them to put themselves in position to make this game go how they want it to.

[Fritz]

I've been thinking about the old standby, turnovers, and how that might be the deciding factor. An early Packer turnover - any Packer turnover, but especially early - and it might be a long, long, frustrating day.

[pbmax]

These are two evenly matched teams. Home field gives the edge to Green Bay.

I could not disagree more. These are not evenly matched teams. The Giants have one path to success and that is protect their defense by playing ball control and field position. Packers have many more ways to beat them.

I also think Rodgers will be spitting fire after the All Pro voting.

[pbmax]

14th? According to the stat page on nfl.com we are 8th.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorysta...1&d-447263-n=1

Football Outsiders ranking. Which takes into account the situation. If you run for 8 yards on a draw play on 3rd and fifteen, you get dinged for not being successful. If you run for 2 and get a first down on 3rd and 1, you are rewarded for successfully keep possession.

NFL's total yardage stats have a lot of garbage in them.

[pbmax]

He's using Football Outsiders' advanced statistics which take into account quality of opponent and I believe also weighs more recent performance more heavily as the season progresses.

They do this as well. Though when you drill down to run rank and pass rank, the success of the plays enters into it a bit more.

[vince]

What the Packers want to do (and do best) offensively - up-tempo quick-strike passing to score early and force opponent to play catch-up - is the best way to beat the Giants.

What the Giants want to do offensively - ball control through balanced attack to complement their defense and limit opponent opportunities - plays into the hands of the Packers defense.

I'm hoping Cook and Monty can have big days in the passing game because Jenkins and DRC might be tough against Nelson and Adams. I also expect the Giants to be aggressive and try to confuse GB with some exotic blitzes by Landon Collins and their fast linebacking corps.

The Giants want to run the ball but they're also not stupid. They'll test GB's DB's early to try to get the game in their favor.

The only kryptonite for Rodgers would be an early turnover or a punishing hit by Collins that makes him jumpy - but neither of those happen much - and not at all lately.

[Fritz]

I could not disagree more. These are not evenly matched teams. The Giants have one path to success and that is protect their defense by playing ball control and field position. Packers have many more ways to beat them.

I also think Rodgers will be spitting fire after the All Pro voting.

Somebody needs to sit down with him and explain how a mere five votes out of fifty - fifty! - means that 90% of the world thinks Aaron Rodgers is NOT an All Pro QB.

Aaron whaddya think about that?

[vince]

They do this as well. Though when you drill down to run rank and pass rank, the success of the plays enters into it a bit more.

Yeah I really like what they do as well to make the numbers more meaningful.