Wild Card Week: They Might Be Giants

[Fritz]

You two are annoying. All this logic, all this analysis of facts, these intelligent posts.

The Packers are going to lose. I can feel it. We've seen it before, twice, against this very QB in the playoffs, at Lambeau. The only questions will be whose fault was it, and who should be fired.

[Maxie the Taxi]

You two are annoying. All this logic, all this analysis of facts, these intelligent posts.

The Packers are going to lose. I can feel it. We've seen it before, twice, against this very QB in the playoffs, at Lambeau. The only questions will be whose fault was it, and who should be fired.

I see what you're doing there, Fritzie ole boy.

[woodbuck27]

You two are annoying. All this logic, all this analysis of facts, these intelligent posts.

The Packers are going to lose. I can feel it. We've seen it before, twice, against this very QB in the playoffs, at Lambeau. The only questions will be whose fault was it, and who should be fired.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000770363/article/odell-beckham-living-out-playoff-dream-seahawks-feel-confident

Odell Beckham living out playoff dream and Blah Blah Blah

Comment woodbuck27: This game is simple in terms of the game plan.

Stop the Eli Manning to O'Dell Beckam hook up's.

Now having posted that; will that be an easy task? I have major concerns and the Packer Secondary.

[RashanGary]

I could not disagree more. These are not evenly matched teams. The Giants have one path to success and that is protect their defense by playing ball control and field position. Packers have many more ways to beat them.

I also think Rodgers will be spitting fire after the All Pro voting.

Two very different but very good teams capable of beating anyone on any given day. One with defense, the other with offense. I see them as both about equally strong but different.

[vince]

You've been calling for losses for weeks so don't stop what's clearly working Fritzy.

That'd be like changing the game thread starter in the middle of a run.

[woodbuck27]

This fella is a key for the Giants success Vs the Packers:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2685281-janoris-jenkins-ascent-to-stardom-isnt-your-typical-redemption-narrative?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=nfl

Janoris Jenkins' Ascent to Stardom Isn't Your Typical Redemption Narrative

By Yaron Weitzman , Featured Columnist Jan 6, 2017

[vince]

They do this as well. Though when you drill down to run rank and pass rank, the success of the plays enters into it a bit more.

Following up on that a bit...

FO's stats suggest Cook should/will be targeted often and have a big day.

Giants Pass Defense Effectiveness by Receiver Type

#1 WR - #2 ranked 8.7 targets 55.8 yds/game allowed
#2 WR - #5 ranked 6.9 targets 55.9 yds/game
Other WR - #7 ranked 5.9 targets 59.4 yds/game
TE - #26 ranked 8.3 targets 69.7 yds/game
RB - #3 ranked 8.0 targets 37.5 yds/game

That projects out to 132 targets and 1,115 yards allowed by tight ends for the year.

Assume a 65% completion rate (Rodgers' is 65.7% for the year and 70.2% last 4 games) and you have 86 catches for 1,115 yards. 13.1 ypc

Travis Kelce's monster year resulted in 85 catches for 1,125 this year. 13.2 ypc

Cook had a pretty impressive 12.6 ypc which ranks him 6th among TE's with 30+ catches.

[vince]

It wasn't particularly insightful overall, but here's a hidden performance stat from FO's game preview that could show up on Sunday. The Packers don't look to have a lot of success running it, and I'd expect Rodgers to be in shotgun/pistol formation most often, but if we see them running it with Rodgers under center, they're probably looking to set the Giants up and take advantage of their defensive aggression.

The Packers have a particularly good chance of making big plays on the down-and-distance where big plays are most prevalent: second-and-short. The Giants' defense ranks in the top ten for every down-and-distance combination except second-and-short (1 or 2 yards), where they rank just 31st. Having that small distance to go makes a huge difference, as the Giants rank No. 2 on second-and-medium and No. 1 on second-and-long. Part of the issue here is that the Giants had the NFL's largest gap on defense between play-action passes (9.2 yards per pass, 28th) and other passes (5.7 yards per pass, second behind Denver).

[pbmax]

If McCarthy is impressed enough by their D, I could see him getting under center.

But since he believes his guys will win, and even against the Seattle in that disastrous first half, I would bet on shotgun to start.

I do see him testing them by running though. We'll see.

[pbmax]

Actually, Packers opened up the Detroit game by scoring on a drive where they did not use Nelson or Adams a whole lot. Could see that early versus Giants too.

[pbmax]

Ty Dunne is torturing Packer fans. He just posted this:

[vince]

If McCarthy is impressed enough by their D, I could see him getting under center.

But since he believes his guys will win, and even against the Seattle in that disastrous first half, I would bet on shotgun to start.

I do see him testing them by running though. We'll see.

I'm not suggesting they should or will go under center exclusively or even a lot. But if they do it even a handful of times we could see play-action and a big shot downfield later on.

The Packers run play action from shotgun/pistol as well - in fact most often - but it's not even close to being as effective selling the run.

The Packers actually averaged fewer yards per pass with play-action (6.3) than without (6.9), one of only five teams to see yards per pass drop with play-action.

[pbmax]

ProFootballTalk @ProFootballTalk

The Packers still haven't sold out Sunday's playoff game, and they're enticing fans with free hot chocolate

[pbmax]

Ripper with bum shoulder. Questionable.

Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter 18m18 minutes ago
Packers added FB Aaron Ripkowski (shoulder) to the injury report and he is questionable for Sunday.

[vince]

Well that sucks. Good thing they got Kerridge involved last week.