Official Packers vs. Falcons NFC Title Game Discussion Thread

[pbmax]

Here are some numbers behind the Rodgers Ryan thing Kacsmar is tweeting about.

Packers had 2 OT in those underdog games. Falcons 3.

Average Score in Packers games: 23.7 to 34.9

Average Score in Falcons games: 23.5 to 32.1

Rodgers outscores Ryan in these games (barely), but his defense surrenders more points. Nearly 3 points is a lot in NFL averages.

Rodgers has made 15 playoff starts, 135 reg season starts for total of 150. With 2 more games, he has been an underdog with a defense allowing 26+ points 10 less times than Ryan. When it happens, his defense allows 35 points.

Ryan has made 6 playoff starts, 142 reg season starts for total of 148. With 2 fewer games, Ryan has been an underdog with a D allowing 26+ points 10 more times and has 5 more wins to show for it (3 of them this year). When it happens, his D allows 32 points.

[RashanGary]

As time goes on, I like our chances more and more. AR is going to have unlimited time against a limited pass rush. We're going to run up the score. I keep hoping for a solid day from our CBs and I do think we have the players on roster to win. We have a shot. Man, i want a SB run this year!!!

[yetisnowman]

I'll stop short of saying Dak has been better this season, but I will say 4 things: 1. As was said or implied, Ryan hasn't been that great until this year, 2. Dak is still on the way up - the way he played last week against the Packers even was better than the already high level he played all season, 3. Dak has a little bit of Aaron Rodgers in him in that he doesn't take many chances/throw a lot of interceptions, whereas Ryan kinda leans the other way, in the games I've seen him anyway, and 4. Mobility means a lot these days; Prescott has it, Ryan doesn't.

Ryan's mobility has improved dramatically since entering the league. He was an absolute statue coming out of college. Now he isn't and elusive and he won't beat you with his legs per as but he has learned how to be much more agile and shift in the pocket to avoid rushers, and throw after shifting his feet. Pay closer attention to his highlights from this season, it's been a key to his success this year.

[Joemailman]

Do you believe in The Jinx?

[texaspackerbacker]

Ryan's mobility has improved dramatically since entering the league. He was an absolute statue coming out of college. Now he isn't and elusive and he won't beat you with his legs per as but he has learned how to be much more agile and shift in the pocket to avoid rushers, and throw after shifting his feet. Pay closer attention to his highlights from this season, it's been a key to his success this year.

He's still a lot closer to Eli than to Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott.

[RashanGary]

Falcons lose Adrian clayborn. He's their second best pass rusher. So they're left with one guy who can rush the passer against Aaron Rodgers. We're going to light them the fuck up!

[HarveyWallbangers]

Interesting that Atlanta is 12-5. They've played 7 games against teams with a winning record and 8 teams with a losing record. The Packers are 12-6. They've played 10 games against teams with a winning record, three teams that went 8-8, and just 6 games against teams with a losing record. The Falcons are 6-3 at home. The Packers are 5-4 on the road. The Packers lost 33-32 at Atlanta during their four game losing streak, without Randall Cobb, Jared Cook, Ty Montgomery, and Clay Matthews (but with Jordy Nelson). Atlanta led the league in scoring, but the Packers are scoring at about the same rate as Atlanta during their winning streak. Statistically, the Falcons defense is worse than the Packers (in points/game, yards/game, 3rd down %, fewer sacks, fewer interceptions). This game is pretty much a tossup. The Falcons are at home, but Ryan has a giant monkey on his back. The Packers have momentum.

[oldbutnotdeadyet]

Ok, I'm finally sober from the game. Time to start drinking to get ready for Sunday.

Seriously, I really really want this game. Seeing the Packers in the SuperBowl again before I die would be very very cool...

[vince]

You're saying the Packers have been underdogs 18 times since Rodgers was the starting QB? That's hard to believe.

The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
Here's the link.

2008 8 (2-6)
2009 4 (2-2)
2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
2012 3 (1-2)
2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L, DAL - L)
2014 4 (0-4)
2015 4 (2-2)
2016 5 (3-2)

So that makes the Packers 14-20 in 34 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.

[ThunderDan]

The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
Here's the link.

2008 8 (2-6)
2009 4 (2-2)
2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
2012 3 (1-2)
2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L)
2014 4 (0-4)
2015 4 (2-2)
2016 5 (3-2)

So that makes the Packers 14-21 in 35 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.

And let me do the selective cherry picking!

Let's throw out ARod's first year as a starter as he was just learning the ropes. That puts him at 12-15 or almost 44.5%.

[vince]

I missed the Dallas game in 2013 so it's actually 12-14 since 2009, .462 ranks 3rd best in that time.

[texaspackerbacker]

Ryan has been a top QB in the league for years. Both Ryan and Arod have thrown 7 INT's this year.

I'll ask again. Did you watch Ryan play against Seattle? Granted he's not as mobile as Arod, but he ran for several 1st downs vs Seattle. Plus, he doesn't necessarily need mobility if he gets rid of the ball as quickly as he did against Seattle. And most throws right on target.

Dom apparently wanted to contain Zeke and make Dak beat them with his arm. I guaran-damn-tee you Dom doesn't go into Atlanta employing the same strategy.

I didn't see your post until this morning - that's why I didn't respond sooner. I saw part of the Seattle Atlanta game. I still say Ryan ain't even close mobility-wise to either Rodgers or Prescott. Accuracy-wise he is, but awareness-wise and caution-wise he falls well short also.

Rodgers' 7 interceptions were mostly early on when he was in some kind of a funk. Recently, he has been head and shoulders ahead of Ryan and everybody else (stating the obvious hahahaha). If you made a comparison "for years", I suspect Ryan wouldn't even come close to Rodgers in TDs to INTs.

I agree (as I posted in some thread) that Dom will conjure up a whole other strategy for the Falcons - a lot more pass rush, less emphasis on the run, risk giving them some big plays in order to lessen their short and mid-range passing game. I guaran-damn-tee you that Dom will try to make Ryan use that mobility and his RBs instead of having so many open receivers in short zones like we let the Cowboys have.

[texaspackerbacker]

The Packers have been underdogs 40 times since Rodgers was the starting QB, and they're 15-25 in those games. That includes games in which he did not play though, which I'll try to take out of consideration.
Here's the link.

2008 8 (2-6)
2009 4 (2-2)
2010 5 (3-2) (Rodgers didn't play vs. NWE - L)
2011 1 (1-0) (Rodgers didn't play vs. DET - W)
2012 3 (1-2)
2013 6 (1-5) (Rodgers didn't play vs. PHI - L, NYG - L, DET - L, DAL - L)
2014 4 (0-4)
2015 4 (2-2)
2016 5 (3-2)

So that makes the Packers 14-20 in 34 games in which Rodgers started as the underdog, which ranks 7th best winning % in the league as the underdog.

In that time only New England (21) has been an underdog fewer times than Green Bay.

I meant 18 times in the playoffs was heard to believe, but either way, these numbers are surprising - I'm not questioning your stats, just that I'm shocked by them.

[pbmax]

He's still a lot closer to Eli than to Russell Wilson or Aaron Rodgers or Dak Prescott.

On that list, only Rodgers has had a season to rival Ryan's 2016. He has been remarkable this year.

[pbmax]

Do you believe in The Jinx?

Regional covers.