Official Packers vs. Falcons NFC Title Game Discussion Thread

[pbmax]

Kacsmar is trying to say that the Packers don't do well in shootouts (Packer D allowing more than 26 points) when underdogs.

More generally, Packers are 16-38-1 when allowing 26+ points. Falcons are 17-40.

http://pfref.com/tiny/n2Up4

Kacsmar wants you to believe the Packers won't fare well as underdogs. I think that may the wrong question. As these numbers guys say, sometimes splits happen.

I don't think 5 fewer wins as underdogs in this scenario means much given the overwhelming chance of losing such a game (need to score 4 TDs just to be competitive). Since BOTH teams are in this boat, I don't think underdog comes into it much UNLESS its proven the Falcons are clearly a superior team.

I think the earlier game this year disabuses that notion. I think the Packer D will be more effective than people think.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I'm sick of all the jabbering. It's a great day for a ball game.


let's play two!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fritz]

I would like to hear what Fritz's feelings about this game are.

Fritz feels sad.

Fritz admires the spirit and tenacity of this year's version of the Green Bay Packers; he admires the way Rodgers has upped his game after being dogged by so many people (including Fritz) for his earlier play. The Dallas game was, from an entertainment standpoint, some of the best the NFL can offer; from a Packer fan's standpoint, from Rodgers's interception on it was agonizing.

They've had a great season. But as Pete Dougherty has pointed out, you can only keep up the smoke and mirrors for so long.

http://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/nfl/packers/2017/01/16/long-playoff-grind-taking-toll-packers/96638478/

When you're in must-win mode week after week after week after week, when you've played sixteen weeks in a row, when your opponent is vastly healthier and has had a previous week off, when your #1 cornerback and #1 running back have been long gone, when your last victory sees you without your #1 wide receiver, your #2 wide receiver limping, your veteran safety limping, your starting left corner hurting, your star left tackle gimping, and your pre-season practice-squad-phenom-if-he-can-learn-the-game-in-time playing cornerback in the divisional round of the playoffs, then you've just plain run out of gas.


I don't blame anyone. That Packer defense, as horrible as it was, is running on fumes. As several have pointed out here, it's a beat-up group. Physically - and, I would argue, emotionally. You can only be in the pressure cooker for so long before it all blows up. And this is that game.

Atlanta has the best offense in the entire league. Don't believe me? Check the statistics. Their defense is horrible, for sure - but is healthier than the Packer defense. And more rested.

Look at this unofficial Packer depth chart from early this season:
Shields
Randall
Rollins
Gunther
Hyde
Goodson
Dorleant
Hawkins

Eight corners, if you count Hyde. Three are gone for the year, one has missed significant time now in the playoffs, and one has been playing hurt since his groin surgery (and has suffered other injuries since). Now Gunther's hurting. That leaves Hyde and Hawkins.

Then you have a defense that has not been stellar stopping the run, and it faces not one but two pretty stellar running backs, who pose different problems for defenses.

The wheels come off the bus this weekend. I called it in Dallas last weekend, and I was wrong, but does anyone want to tell me the wheels didn't at least start coming off the bus once Rodgers threw that interception? You all saw that last quarter, didn't you?

I think Rodgers has valiantly carried this team. He did it against Dallas. But I think it's too much to ask or think he can do it again. I see Atlanta putting up 40+.

Fritz is sad.

[RashanGary]

I kind of agree fritz, but I'm still gonna hope!

[Maxie the Taxi]

Fritz, Gunter's hurting? I hadn't heard that. What's up with him?

[Cheesehead Craig]

Fritz, Gunter's hurting? I hadn't heard that. What's up with him?

Nothing official on him, just the collision on Sunday. I'm sure something's sore on him.

[vince]

Atlanta's defense more active since first meeting with Packers

Since their Week 11 bye, the Falcons’ defense has generated 13 turnovers in the last seven games, including last week’s divisional playoff vs. Seattle. That win, combined with Green Bay’s victory in Dallas, has set up Atlanta to host Sunday’s NFC title game against the Packers.

The turnover surge has been a huge factor in allowing only two of their last seven opponents to top 20 points after some much rougher defensive outings earlier in the season, including against Green Bay in a last-minute, 33-32 victory in Week 8.

“We’re much closer to the style and vision we’d like to play, playing with that kind of speed and intensity and tackling,” Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn said in a conference call with Green Bay media on Wednesday. “It came from experience. We needed more turns together, and the communication has picked up.”

It's very hard to see them replicating this against Rodgers this weekend.

[Fritz]

Nothing official on him, just the collision on Sunday. I'm sure something's sore on him.

Buzzfeed says he hurt his wiener.

[pbmax]

M3 Wednesday Presser

Wes Hodkiewicz @WesHod 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy: Jordy Nelson will be working with the rehab group today #Packers

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Rodgers’ improvement: We’ve improved as an offense. We changed direction how we start games, emphasis with how used no huddle.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Kenny Clark: Played well. See snaps have gone up. Last six weeks taken a big jump. Happy with progress.

Wes Hodkiewicz @WesHod 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy: Morgan Burnett will be working in the rehab group today #Packers

Packer Report @PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
MM on Crosby's struggles in 2012: "We always believed in the man and obviously you can see why."

Green Bay Packers @packers 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on @crosbykicks2: He's the ultimate professional. His mental toughness is unique. I think that's what separates him.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Jared Cook: He was here as much as could in off-season. Definitely a transition. Look at him now, he’s playing great football.

Packer Report @PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
MM on Atlanta's offense: Playing great and have done so all year. Most consistent offense. Starts up front, Ryan having MVP-type season.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Matt Ryan: Always been a fan. Had to make some changes with offensive systems. Composed, always handled tough situations well.

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy said Bakhtiari/Bulaga will work in a limited fashion. Rollins is close to clearing concussion protocol. Adams in the rehab group.

Michael Cohen @Michael_Cohen13 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy said Joe Thomas is a young player continuing to improve at inside linebacker. "Joe has probably taken two steps this year."

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on depth: Young players played early and often. We’ll need them this week. This is the NFL.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on WR coach Luke Getsy: Just look at the results. Every one of those young guys has improved a lot. Davante taken a big step.

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Micah Hyde: Don’t know position he hasn’t played outside offensive and defensive line. His personality fits locker room.

QUARTERBACK?

Packer Report @PackerReport 5h5 hours ago
Can Adams play on Sunday? "We'll see," MM says. Maybe will practice on Saturday. So that's not a great response.

THAT'S NOT PAWSITIVE

Green Bay Packers @packers 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy on Rodgers: Aaron's competitiveness never turns off. It's all day every day. Most competitive player in our building.

Wes Hodkiewicz @WesHod 5h5 hours ago
McCarthy said he doesn't expect Davante Adams to practice until Saturday. Want to see him move throughout week #Packers

SLIGHTLY MORE PAWSITIVE?

[pbmax]

SPOON SUMMARY

Tom Silverstein @TomSilverstein 5h5 hours ago
#Packers injuries: Nelson, Burnett, Adams not practicing. Adams will practice Saturday at earliest. Nelson a ? again. Bakhtiari, Bulaga, OK.

[hoosier]

Jeezus, I wonder if Janis has another Arizona game in him. They are going to need it.

[pbmax]

Jeezus, I wonder if Janis has another Arizona game in him. They are going to need it.

This time lets hail mary before the end of the game.

"Jeff, I don't care how you get there, but 4.5 seconds after the snap, I am throwing the ball to the base of the upright."

A Janis post route.

[Joemailman]

Wouldn't be surprised to see Montgomery lining up more at WR this week.

[esoxx]

What is Jarrett Boykin up to?

[Bossman641]

One would think we're due for some good injury news, right? Right?