The 49ers Draft Room: Falling in love with players

[pbmax]

Peter King spent the weekend with John Lynch.

We'll see how it works out, taking a player you had literally removed from your draft board during scouting season, and then trading up to get him. My money is on crash and burn.

I would also bet money on CJ Bethard NOT being the next John Elway.

http://mmqb.si.com/mmqb/2017/05/01/san-francisco-49ers-nfl-draft-room-bears-trade-reuben-foster-peter-king#

[run pMc]

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Peter King

[SMBASS]

I would also bet money on CJ Bethard NOT being the next John Elway.

I was shocked they took CJ Bethard that early pb. I watch a lot of Iowa games and he seemed to have a pretty dramatic fall off from his JR. year to his SR. year. Although considering they didn't have any WR's worth a darn, their OC didn't have a clue, and their line couldn't pass block worth a crap it was hard to tell how much of that was completely on CJ. He seemed to throw a nice accurate long ball his JR. year but his accuracy was considerably worse his SR. year. He got beat up a lot during his 2 years of starting so he did prove that he's a gamer and pretty tough.

[pbmax]

I was shocked they took CJ Bethard that early pb. I watch a lot of Iowa games and he seemed to have a pretty dramatic fall off from his JR. year to his SR. year. Although considering they didn't have any WR's worth a darn, their OC didn't have a clue, and their line couldn't pass block worth a crap it was hard to tell how much of that was completely on CJ. He seemed to throw a nice accurate long ball his JR. year but his accuracy was considerably worse his SR. year. He got beat up a lot during his 2 years of starting so he did prove that he's a gamer and pretty tough.

It might be on his teammates, but none of the projection systems loved the kid. He was getting compared to Tuiasosopo, Drew Stanton, Quincy Carter, Brock Huard, Pat Ramsey and Rex Grossman.


SOURCE:

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz 24h24 hours ago
Technically, QBASE is only the top 100 picks, but pick 104 C.J. Beathard would have the fourth-lowest QBASE projection since 1998.

Iowa was a dismal 74th in passing S&P+ last year. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaaoff

QBs since 1998, rd 1-3, with 6.0 AYPA or less in final college season: Tuiasosopo/Beathard (6.0), Stanton (5.9), B Huard (5.3), Carter (5.0)

If we raise the minimum to 6.5 AYPA in final college season, we also add Pat Ramsey (6.2) and Rex Grossman (6.1). Not a good group.

[Freak Out]

Still blows me away Lynch is a GM.

[vince]

The Niners have their issues getting the Lynch regime up and running for sure, particularly locking onto guys, but they had a pretty good draft overall thanks to the unbelievable insecurity and generosity of the Bears. This is just an embarrassing account for the Bears GM.

San Francisco, picking second, had three men clearly atop its board: Garrett one, Stanford defensive lineman Solomon Thomas two and, in a surprise, Alabama middle linebacker Reuben Foster three … Chicago, picking third, badly wanted someone. The Bears and Niners had an understanding that if Chicago’s man was still on the board after Cleveland picked (Chicago GM Ryan Pace wouldn’t tell Lynch who Player X was; the Niners figured it was Thomas), the Bears would give at least two third-round picks to move from three to two.

No nerves, but no pleasantries either. Marathe, who talks very fast and with great confidence, called another team with interest in the second slot and said, “We got some good action on the pick.” Marathe talked to the club official (he would not disclose the official, or the team) for maybe a minute, just to crystallize that if Garrett was there at two, the Niners would either pick or take a ransom for the pick.

“See if we can get one last thing with Chicago,” Lynch said to Marathe.

Marathe called the Bears. “To try to solidify this now,” Marathe said to Pace, “we’re gonna need a little bit more to finish. It wouldn’t have to be much. Like, your four. So let’s say your third, 67 overall, this year, your three next year, and your four this year, 111 overall … I’m not gonna string you along … No … I will do it quickly. Let me get with John and Kyle and I’ll call you right back.”

The Bears agreed. They’d give two third-round picks and a fourth-rounder to move up one spot.

“Man, who do they want?” Lynch said. “Gotta be Solomon, right?”

“Call me crazy,” Marathe said. “But I think it’s Trubisky.”

“Then why’d they go get [free-agent quarterback Mike] Glennon?” Lynch said.

Good question John. You can only hope Ryan Pace gives you the farm for no reason again next year.

[pbmax]

The Niners have their issues getting the Lynch regime up and running for sure, particularly locking onto guys, but they had a pretty good draft overall thanks to the unbelievable insecurity and generosity of the Bears. This is just an embarrassing account for the Bears GM.


Good question John. You can only hope Ryan Pace gives you the farm for no reason again next year.

Agreed. The 49ers were bailed out by the Bears offer.

[vince]

The differential on that trade according to the Harvard chart you posted pb is 304.4. Granted next year's 3rd isn't the same as this year's 3rd, but that's basically the Bears handing over a top 10 pick - for no reason whatsoever! They could have just stood pat and made that pick - after signing Glennon to a 3-year $15 mil/year deal on top of that. Unbelievable.

[pbmax]

The differential on that trade according to the Harvard chart you posted pb is 304.4. Granted next year's 3rd isn't the same as this year's 3rd, but that's basically the Bears handing over a top 10 pick - for no reason whatsoever! They could have just stood pat and made that pick - after signing Glennon to a 3-year $15 mil/year deal on top of that. Unbelievable.

Yep. Even if you discount it by a round (which Brian Burke thinks is too much), it doesn't look good.

If I were a Bears fan, I would be less concerned about the chart in this case, because each team has to agree to use one of them. The strategy seems flawed. You picked up Glennon to hold the fort until you found a QB. Trubisky might be the best of this year, but he is no lock (or Luck).