Is McCarthy the problem?

[Pugger]

M3 is a part of the problem, insomuch as he is partially resposible for the main problem - which is dunderdummy.

TT is equally to blame with McCarthy though as neither one of them has the guts to fire DD.

2017 will be another wasted year.

I don't think TT hires or fires Mike's assistant coaches.

[pbmax]

Last 5 Years Run Rate by Down in 4th Q with a Lead

.............1........2........3......4.......Win % in Those Games
NE........52.0...32.3...14.6...1.1.........95.2
GB........51.1...33.9...13.6...1.4.........92.0
League..50.1...33.8...15.0...1.1.........82.1

Not a lot of difference in approach across the league in reality but the notion that Bellichick acts differently with a lead in the 4th is incorrect.

NE and GB have historically (last decade or so) been the 2 best teams in the league in successfully closing games with 4th Q lead. Widely-held misperceptions about this have to be based on 1 or 2 memorable anomalies.

Seriously, welcome back to the fray. But I have to set some time (probably during fantasy football prep) to dig in further to their records. The stuff you have dug up make it obvious the differences are not huge.

[Rutnstrut]

This is bs and we all know it. Smuggler or someone did an analysis of end of games and MM won more than anyone in the NFL but Billacheat.

Look at the ARI/GB playoff game to see an attacking end of the game strategy backfire.

Except stubby has been saved by Rodgers. BB would still be a great coach without Brady. Rodgers should be paid 10 times what he is as he has made stubby and TT look great as opposed to the mediocre they are.

[mraynrand]

Except stubby has been saved by Rodgers.

*SIGH*

[Upnorth]

*SIGH*

Koolaid Drinker

[mraynrand]

Koolaid Drinker

I'll see you in the Meadow!

[Smeefers]

I'm going to jump in and say that everyone here except Vince is nuts. MM is one of the best coaches to ever grace the halls of flambeau field. In head to head matches with the Belicheck genius, he's out coached him every time. Do you guys remember wandering into fox borough with some second tier quarterback and we were within a hairs breath of beating them? I love how you guys blame Dom Capers for having Gunther shadowing Julio Jones. Or how you'll blame McCarthy for a TE who shall not be named screwing up the easiest offside kick return in history. We are constantly in serious contention for the super bowl. Year after freaking year. Not just some one and out at the end of the season. It's not like we haven't sniffed the playoffs in the last decade. No, we're right in the thick of things. Guess what, baring major catastrophe, we're going to be right in the thick of things again this year. There is absolutely nothing wrong with MM's coaching. If you think there is, I think you have blinders on. Tunnel vision man. Get into the dudes numbers. There's MM and there's Belicheck and then there's everyone else. He's the second best coach of this generation.

If you want to talk about how he hangs onto coaches too long? Sure, you probably have something there. Slocum was the thorn in the packers side forever. He's a guy who consistently put out a bad product. I could get behind getting rid of that guy and blaming mike for not doing it quickly enough. Like 5 years too late. That's about it though. Dude's too loyal to his staff. Other than that, there isn't a coach in the league that I'd take over him right now except for Belicheck. There is not one other dude who you could say is a solid upgrade to MM. And once again, even there, when the two have met, I think MM has outcoached him every time, regardless of outcome.

Alright. Back to lurking.

[Zool]

I don't have enough total recall to back up your assertion that he's outcoached Old Billy, but he's a pretty damned good coach. Dan Marino had Don Shula who is widely considered one of the best coaches ever. Marino had 9 playoff appearances in 17 years. 13 years were with Shula coaching and they hit the playoffs 6 times. I guess you can talk about NFC Championship games as a detriment, but that's a bit like saying Marv Levy is a bad coach because he lost 4 superbowls.

[mraynrand]

I'm going to jump in and say that everyone here except Vince is nuts. MM is one of the best coaches to ever grace the halls of flambeau field. In head to head matches with the Belicheck genius, he's out coached him every time. Do you guys remember wandering into fox borough with some second tier quarterback and we were within a hairs breath of beating them? I love how you guys blame Dom Capers for having Gunther shadowing Julio Jones. Or how you'll blame McCarthy for a TE who shall not be named screwing up the easiest offside kick return in history. We are constantly in serious contention for the super bowl. Year after freaking year. Not just some one and out at the end of the season. It's not like we haven't sniffed the playoffs in the last decade. No, we're right in the thick of things. Guess what, baring major catastrophe, we're going to be right in the thick of things again this year. There is absolutely nothing wrong with MM's coaching. If you think there is, I think you have blinders on. Tunnel vision man. Get into the dudes numbers. There's MM and there's Belicheck and then there's everyone else. He's the second best coach of this generation.

If you want to talk about how he hangs onto coaches too long? Sure, you probably have something there. Slocum was the thorn in the packers side forever. He's a guy who consistently put out a bad product. I could get behind getting rid of that guy and blaming mike for not doing it quickly enough. Like 5 years too late. That's about it though. Dude's too loyal to his staff. Other than that, there isn't a coach in the league that I'd take over him right now except for Belicheck. There is not one other dude who you could say is a solid upgrade to MM. And once again, even there, when the two have met, I think MM has outcoached him every time, regardless of outcome.

Alright. Back to lurking.

Good post. My abbreviation for this is: *SIGH*

I just get tired writing it out all the time.

[mraynrand]

that's a bit like saying Marv Levy is a bad coach because he lost 4 superbowls.

When the Levy breaks, mama you got to move.

[vince]

OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.

[hoosier]

OK I was a little quick publishing those stats. Those are the percentage of runs on each down relative to the other downs, not relative to passes. Sorry about that.

Here are the 5-yr. run vs. pass rates in the 4th Q with a lead (all downs combined).

NE - 58%
GB - 63%
League - 65%

Belli is 5% more likely than McCarthy to pass with a lead in the 4th. McCarthy is 2% more likely than the league average. Both are very successful closing games.

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances. For instance, run calls according to down & distance and size of lead. They could have similar overall numbers in this fourth quarter with lead category, but if it turned out the Patriots tend to have bigger leads than the Packers, then MM's run-calling tendencies would seem even more comparatively conservative than the five percent indicated here.

[mraynrand]

To fully understand the comparison we would need to see a little more differentiation for circumstances.

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

[Pugger]

Except stubby has been saved by Rodgers. BB would still be a great coach without Brady. Rodgers should be paid 10 times what he is as he has made stubby and TT look great as opposed to the mediocre they are.

Who do you think made Rodgers what he is today? Favre?

[hoosier]

I like to just watch the games. You get a feel for what works for a particular coach. I generally think many many Packer fans, angry with Stubby for his failures, don't actually watch a lot of other games and see how 25 or more head coaches screw things up on a routine basis.

There's a reason Stubby wins 10 or more games and makes the playoffs every year. And if some smart guy wants to say it's Rodgers bailing him out, then he should give credit to Stubby for training Rodgers so well. But he probably won't!

Football is about four decades if not more behind baseball in its analytical evolution. You, sitting on your couch, content to remain in your intuitive slumbers, are part of what is keeping football in its Dark Ages.