McCarthy's Offense: McAdoo Edition

[call_me_ishmael]

The offense does seem to have recovered from the 2015 and early 2016 debacles but it still doesn't feel like it is humming along as it should or did in 2014. ARod is too good for the results we're seeing. It still seems like the home run threat is never there and we're constantly dinking and dunking to get down the field. Admittedly, I'm unable to watch the games as closely these days so I could very well be off base here.

A theory I don't totally believe, but have considered, is Jordy Nelson is an average #2 right now, and Devante Adams is not a great player. Cobb has the most "athletic" ability but he is still so small.

Anyway, I do not want to pay Adams big bucks at the end of this year. He never seems to get any separation at all. That is the exact opposite of Nelson and Jennings, who both lived up to their 2nd contracts. They consistently had separation.

[vince]

Green Bay's offense is ranked 8th in points and 16th in yards having played against the 3rd (Cin.), 9th (Chi), 13th (Atl) and 14th (Sea) ranked defenses so far.

Falcons and Bengals in particular have gotten after QB's (each rank 3rd with 12) which is usually GB's offensive achilles heal. That's proven out so far this year as well. Rodgers was sacked 13 times in their 3 worst point producing games and only twice when they racked up 35 on the Bears.

With Guards playing Tackle and UDFA rookies starting on the o-line, I'd say the offense has done pretty well getting in the end zone and should only get better.

They've been particularly good in the most important situations that drive point production - #1 in the league in Red Zone TD % and #3 in 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They'll win a lot of games if they keep up that situational production - and the defense continues to hold up.

Individually, I tend to agree with you about Adams from a contract standpoint. He's a good possession guy who can get off the line and fight for balls but a complimentary guy who is fortunate to fit the Packers' and Rodgers' game pretty well. If someone wants to pay up for him like the Vikes did for Jennings, he could easily fall of the cliff harder and faster than Jennings did post-GB.

Rodgers and the Packers scheme spreads the ball around so much by knowing defensive tendencies, matchups and attacking what the defense gives them rather than targeting any of their guys like most teams do with their 1's, so it can be tough to judge individual production. That said, Football Outsiders has Nelson as the #2 ranked receiver in the league right now. Cobb is #22 and Adams is #24. A couple teams (Rams and Vikes) have their top 2 guys higher than GB's top 2, but no one matches GB's top 3.

[vince]

Over the course of the whole year (good and bad) the more consistently the Packers maintained 11 personnel, the more points they scored.

2016 11 Personnel Frequency and Scoring by Quarter

Qtr...11 Freq....Pts./game...NFL Rank
1.......48%.........5.3.............10th
2.......61%.........9.1..............3rd
3.......49%.........4.8..............14th
4.......50%.........8.5..............4th

[Pugger]

How about this analogy from basketball. You know the phrase "he can make his own shot" - the better/great players can get open and then have an easier shot. Packer wide receivers lacked this during the drought. Jennings could make his own shot, that is, get open against press man coverage. But he declined/left. Rodgers could do the equivalent with Nelson on sideline outs and comebacks, but when Nelson got injured, both options were gone. I don't think Nelson will ever return to top form, so it's essential to run those other schemes. Or maybe draft a WR who can get open.

It would be nice if they'd use Bennett up the seam instead of the short outs and 3 yard buttonhooks.

Rodgers does like to often wait and see if he can make the bigger play and passes on throwing to the open player underneath. I also think Bennett's numbers will improve once our starting tackles are back and he doesn't have to block as much.

[Pugger]

The offense does seem to have recovered from the 2015 and early 2016 debacles but it still doesn't feel like it is humming along as it should or did in 2014. ARod is too good for the results we're seeing. It still seems like the home run threat is never there and we're constantly dinking and dunking to get down the field. Admittedly, I'm unable to watch the games as closely these days so I could very well be off base here.

A theory I don't totally believe, but have considered, is Jordy Nelson is an average #2 right now, and Devante Adams is not a great player. Cobb has the most "athletic" ability but he is still so small.

Anyway, I do not want to pay Adams big bucks at the end of this year. He never seems to get any separation at all. That is the exact opposite of Nelson and Jennings, who both lived up to their 2nd contracts. They consistently had separation.

Really? To me Adams seems like he is better at getting separation than you suggest.

[mraynrand]

Agreed, which indicates that some mythical middle of the field attack change not only didn't impact the turnaround, but didn't exist in the first place.

yep. Good stuff Vince.

[Maxie the Taxi]

Green Bay's offense is ranked 8th in points and 16th in yards having played against the 3rd (Cin.), 9th (Chi), 13th (Atl) and 14th (Sea) ranked defenses so far.

Falcons and Bengals in particular have gotten after QB's (each rank 3rd with 12) which is usually GB's offensive achilles heal. That's proven out so far this year as well. Rodgers was sacked 13 times in their 3 worst point producing games and only twice when they racked up 35 on the Bears.

With Guards playing Tackle and UDFA rookies starting on the o-line, I'd say the offense has done pretty well getting in the end zone and should only get better.

They've been particularly good in the most important situations that drive point production - #1 in the league in Red Zone TD % and #3 in 3rd Down Conversion Rate. They'll win a lot of games if they keep up that situational production - and the defense continues to hold up.

Individually, I tend to agree with you about Adams from a contract standpoint. He's a good possession guy who can get off the line and fight for balls but a complimentary guy who is fortunate to fit the Packers' and Rodgers' game pretty well. If someone wants to pay up for him like the Vikes did for Jennings, he could easily fall of the cliff harder and faster than Jennings did post-GB.

Rodgers and the Packers scheme spreads the ball around so much by knowing defensive tendencies, matchups and attacking what the defense gives them rather than targeting any of their guys like most teams do with their 1's, so it can be tough to judge individual production. That said, Football Outsiders has Nelson as the #2 ranked receiver in the league right now. Cobb is #22 and Adams is #24. A couple teams (Rams and Vikes) have their top 2 guys higher than GB's top 2, but no one matches GB's top 3.

No fair, Vince! Making points by relying on facts is no fair to us seat-of-the-pantsers!!

[mraynrand]

Rodgers does like to often wait and see if he can make the bigger play and passes on throwing to the open player underneath. I also think Bennett's numbers will improve once our starting tackles are back and he doesn't have to block as much.

I agree. The problems with the O line explain a lot. Much like Rodgers gets comfortable with his top receiver (Jennings, Nelson), knowing each other's nuances, the same could be said for Rodgers and Bacteria - Rodgers moves in the pocket in a particular way, and Bac often can play cat and mouse with the pass rusher, just keeping him at bay while Rodgers moves around back there. The fill-in guys have either been incompetent (Murphy, Spriggs) or more conventional (Taybor™), but none have been as athletic as Bac and allowed for those 'extended pockets' that are such a feature of the Rodgers-led offense. The way that Rodgers-Bakhtiari relationship works is really an art form.

[pbmax]

vince,

Can you post the personnel numbers for 2015? The 2016 numbers featured an offense without its best TE, so McCarthy was using other formations. Injuries certainly played a role in the drought, it was not just game plans and personnel groups.

During run the table, Cook was back and getting increasingly healthy. He was operating in the middle of the field, against the middle of the defense. Even if he is running a crossing route (like his catch versus the Cowboys in the playoffs) that is threatening the middle of the D, even if the play was extended and the throw was from outside the hash to outside the hash. He was bracketed by a LB and a safety (or nickel CB) I believe.

As I recall, prior to Giants and McAdoo, it was the Packers leading the lead in 11 personnel.

[pbmax]

He may be using more stacks and bunches but I found no empirical evidence to support that.

I would bet a significant sum on that this year. He went to it a bit last year during run the table, but its been a regular feature this year. He's put as many as four skill position players in a bunch. He runs from this as well.

[pbmax]

those directional numbers don't look all that different to me, but there are no confidence intervals so what can I say

I think those are a combo of Rodgers preference and M3 play calling, which over time has been influenced by Rodgers preference.

[pbmax]

This turn around has had more to do with McCarthy tightening up the leash (slightly and often temporarily depending on offensive flow) on Rodgers inclination to improvise and the receivers' ability to separate quickly vs. man coverage than any "creativity" he gained, or lack of it previously. He's a creative offensive mind, which was partially what caused some problems during the drought. The innovative "second level" attack is his brainchild, but like all innovations, there are often bumps in the road and adjustments to be made.

Rodgers and the whole offense benefits from some structure early, and then he can open up the second level attack once they get things going. The full arsenal of healthy receivers makes all the difference too.

I think this is true for this year with a banged up O line and featuring quicker throws. The Packers are near the top of the League in throws under 5 yards.

But I suspect that with Tackle health, Rodgers will have his freedom back. I don't think McCarthy works against that, I think he encourages it unless its going to get him killed because of 4 Guards on the O line.

[pbmax]

Agreed, which indicates that some mythical middle of the field attack change not only didn't impact the turnaround, but didn't exist in the first place.

I don't see how you can watch last year's offense with Cook and not say he is not attacking the middle of the field (and the defense). He wasn't lined up on the boundary.

This year they are running combos with Cobb and Bennett to shake Cobb open in the middle.

Have the total number of plays to the middle gone up? Probably not, they still prefer to attack the edges. But I think that red zone and 3rd down rankings reflect their play.

[pbmax]

So you're concluding, PB, that MM has worked his way out of that slump he was in?

Whew. I was tired of him trying to grit his teeth and force things. Great coaches roll with what they're given.

After the first pass through vince's numbers, I think McCarthy still does not change his play approach until there simply is no other choice. We have discussed that as a strength before and it is, because it helps the team perform at a high level and plug players in when the inevitable injuries strike. A consistent and simpler playbook works for more situations in today's NFL.

Rodgers helps him make this approach work by being able to operate well pre-snap, with audibles and extending plays. But even with Nelson, Cobb, Jones and a hole at TE, the offense struggled at times to get open against man even in 2014*.

So there is a limit. With Nelson hurt or recovering, being without a TE threat or a banged up Cobb, you have Rand's situation, where the players available need scheme help because the skill position talent aren't winning one on one. Adams and perhaps Allison are the exciting possible exceptions here.

Something I did not consider while writing this is that McCarthy, rather than redo his offense with scheme for basic plays this year, has redone his situational offense instead. So red zone and 3rd down as looking good so far, though we are in for a film adjustment period soon as D coordinators will have the full four weeks of film to review of the new offense starting this week.

The other thing is the TEs. They go 3 deep, each has some skill as a receiver Rodger's trusts, but all of them can block. Which really puts pressure on a D.



* The games versus Seattle (obviously great D), Detroit in Detroit and Buffalo (possibly one of the worst O games of M3/Rodgers career versus a great D on the road) come to mind. And games versus Fangio and the great 49er D during Harbaugh's tenure. Many of these games though were on the road though, which makes a discernible to the naked eye difference in the Packers pass protection.

Though I accept no excuses for the O's performance versus San Fran in the home playoff game in 2013. Seriously, the Defense stood up despite losing a corner and OLB in the first quarter and held. The Packer O at home was mediocre. On the other hand, the 2014 Offense lead the league in scoring. So we are talking about only a handful of plays. Problem is, several of them have been in the playoffs.

[red]

so, if tubby mcfatty didn't have #12, this is a 0-4 team

that seems about right