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  • #1

    Defense Spending

    You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

    Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

    So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

    Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

    2016: 23; 6
    2015: 14; 5
    2014: 18; 4
    2013: 29; 6

    So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

    How have other teams done?

    Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

    2016:

    Bengals; 16
    Bucs; 4
    Giants; 2
    Broncos; 1
    Seahawks; 9
    Packers; 23
    Jaguars; 13
    Jets; 19
    Titans; 27

    2015:

    Jets; 6
    Colts; 10
    Seahawks; 3
    Texans; 4
    Packers; 14
    Bengals; 9
    Browns; 23
    Chiefs; 2
    Cardinals; 7
    Broncos; 1

    2014:

    Bengals; 17
    Bucs; 15
    Bills; 2
    Packers; 18
    Browns; 8
    Lions; 7
    Steelers; 27
    Ravens; 12
    Seahawks; 1
    Dolphins; 25

    2013:

    Bengals; 6
    Chiefs; 14
    Vikings; 26
    Ravens; 8
    Bucs; 12
    Packers; 29
    Colts; 19
    Browns; 27
    Bills; 5
    49ers; 11

    My takeaways:

    - The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
    - The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
    - The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
    - Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    i was looking at salary cap numbers and as they stand today for all 32 teams. nearly all the good teams are in the bottom half with the fewest cap dollars remaining and nearly all the poor teams are in the top half with the most cap dollars. a Rodgersless Packers team has proven itself to be a poor team and yes...they're in the top half.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by th87 View Post
      You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?

      Well I checked whether that's actually true, and it isn't. The Packers actually spend around the top 5 for defense.

      So the next question is whether they're getting value (i.e. a good defense). You would think that spending around the top 5, we'd be getting a top 5 defense in return, right? Well we know that's not true.

      Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

      2016: 23; 6
      2015: 14; 5
      2014: 18; 4
      2013: 29; 6

      So for example, for 2016, the Packers spent the 6th most in the NFL on defense, and only achieved a 23 ranking defensively. Every year, we've gotten terrible, terrible value.

      How have other teams done?

      Here's a list of the top defensive spending teams (in rank order; active roster cap) by year, and their DVOA ranking:

      2016:

      Bengals; 16
      Bucs; 4
      Giants; 2
      Broncos; 1
      Seahawks; 9
      Packers; 23
      Jaguars; 13
      Jets; 19
      Titans; 27

      2015:

      Jets; 6
      Colts; 10
      Seahawks; 3
      Texans; 4
      Packers; 14
      Bengals; 9
      Browns; 23
      Chiefs; 2
      Cardinals; 7
      Broncos; 1

      2014:

      Bengals; 17
      Bucs; 15
      Bills; 2
      Packers; 18
      Browns; 8
      Lions; 7
      Steelers; 27
      Ravens; 12
      Seahawks; 1
      Dolphins; 25

      2013:

      Bengals; 6
      Chiefs; 14
      Vikings; 26
      Ravens; 8
      Bucs; 12
      Packers; 29
      Colts; 19
      Browns; 27
      Bills; 5
      49ers; 11

      My takeaways:

      - The Packers have gotten poor value every year; this is true of no other team.
      - The majority of teams getting poor value replaced their coach soon after (2013 Browns, 2013 Bucs, 2013 Vikings, 2014 Dolphins, 2014 Steelers; 2014 Bucs; 2015 Browns; none in 2016).
      - The Packers are a complete outlier in this analysis, having gotten poor value every year and retaining their coaches despite this.
      - Someone is asleep at the wheel - either TT is handing out bad contracts, and/or Capers is not getting expected value out of his players/defense.
      So....something has to give and I hope that happens after this what certainly appears as 'a lost Season'.

      Isn't it too obvious what needs to be done !?

      Do we always place blame on lousy or unfortunate adversity and too many injuries?

      Do we look at what supplies the talent available on the Packer Roster?

      I say look at both and do everything possible to correct both.
      ** Since 2006 3 X Pro Pickem' Champion; 4 X Runner-Up and 3 X 3rd place.
      ** To download Jesus Loves Me ring tones, you'll need a cell phone mame
      ** If God doesn't fish, play poker or pull for " the Packers ", exactly what does HE do with his buds?
      ** Rather than love, money or fame - give me TRUTH: Henry D. Thoreau

      Comment

      • #4
        Originally posted by th87 View Post
        You know how people say, well, we can't devote resources to the defense, because we're allocating our money to Rodgers' contract and weapons for him?
        .
        I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.
        The only time success comes before work is in the dictionary -- Vince Lombardi

        Comment

        • #5
          Originally posted by th87 View Post
          Below is a list of the Packers' weighted defensive DVOA rankings, along with defensive spending rankings (active roster cap) by year:

          2016: 23; 6
          2015: 14; 5
          2014: 18; 4
          2013: 29; 6
          Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

          2016: 21
          2015: 12
          2014: 13
          2013: 24
          "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

          Comment

          • #6
            Originally posted by mraynrand View Post
            Here's ranking by points allowed (since Capers is noted for preventing 'big plays' which translates into more points)

            2016: 21
            2015: 12
            2014: 13
            2013: 24
            Point totals are better than yardage, but still dependent on the offense and ST to some degree.

            DVOA is the better overall measure though its far from perfect. There was nothing wrong with two of those defenses in the playoffs.
            Bud Adams told me the franchise he admired the most was the Kansas City Chiefs. Then he asked for more hookers and blow.

            Comment

            • #7
              i've been saying this and point to those same numbers for years

              no one cares

              and we have to spend the money somewhere, the offense without a-rod is proving that the money shouldn't go to them

              Comment

              • #8
                I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.
                All hail the Ruler of the Meadow!

                Comment

                • #9
                  Originally posted by Cheesehead Craig View Post
                  I'm still going to beat that drum of getting rid of Capers. Keep the damn 3-4 if you want, but it's time for something better at the defensive leadership helm.
                  have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
                  "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Originally posted by mraynrand View Post
                    have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
                    Give hom a street name and a brinks truck if he can replicate the Jags D here
                    Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
                      But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

                      -Tim Harmston

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Originally posted by ThunderDan View Post
                        The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
                        Give him Stubby's job. He has proven he is only here because he had AR.
                        Swede: My expertise in this area is extensive. The essential difference between a "battleship" and an "aircraft carrier" is that an aircraft carrier requires five direct hits to sink, but it takes only four direct hits to sink a battleship.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ThunderDan View Post
                          The problem with that is I am guessing Perry Fewell is looking for a HC spot not a lateral movement to GB.
                          It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.
                          "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Originally posted by mraynrand View Post
                            It's not lateral. He's their defensive backs coach. He took a tumble after the Giants defense tanked a bit and with the coaching change. Some may see him as damaged goods.
                            I thought he was their DC. Thanks for the correction and Get'er Done!
                            But Rodgers leads the league in frumpy expressions and negative body language on the sideline, which makes him, like Josh Allen, a unique double threat.

                            -Tim Harmston

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Originally posted by mraynrand View Post
                              have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.
                              I think Mike Nolan would be a good hire, however, if successful, he's likely gone to a HC gig within 4 years.

                              Dennis Thurman is a fantastic DB coach and that is something this Packer team is needing help with. He's been a successful DC under Ryan in several locations. Granted, Ryan likely controlled things, but I think the guy could flourish.
                              All hail the Ruler of the Meadow!

                              Comment

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