Defense Spending

[Patler]

I don't ever recall anyone saying that...ever...at all.

Ya, especially when you look at the lists of the highest paid players the last few years and it has been fairly evenly divided between offense and defense. Matthews has been #2 since his last contract, and for several years the next highest paid were Peppers and Shields Three of the top four were on D. Beyond that, in various orders the top 10 have included Lang, Sitton, Nelson and Cobb from the O and Daniels and Burnett from the D. This year you have Nelson, Cobb, Daniels and Burnett along with Bulaga, Bakhtiari, Perry and Taylor at the top of the list.

Rodgers and Matthews have been the two outliers, with others on O&D relatively significantly below them. If anything, the problem has been that Matthews hasn't done for the D what Rodgers does for the O, and Shields wasn't on the field enough to justify his portion of the salary cap the last few years. For the most part, the highest paid on offense have played and earned their money. For various reasons, the D have not even though they have gotten their share of the pot.

[mraynrand]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

[pbmax]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

Probably, but many of the traits of failure pre and post date Sam's injury.

[Fritz]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.

[mraynrand]

So first there's talk of canning Capers, and now you're adding Fewell to the fire.

You must be a Capers crusader.

[pbmax]

I will say this in the OP's defense. There are more than a handful of posts on this forum at the last contract signing that were bemoaning Rodgers not taking a below market deal like Brady and that it would spell disaster for the rest of the team's payroll.

[Smidgeon]

I saw a puff piece on ESPN a month or two back where it ranked the best coordinators of the last decade (two decades?), and Wade Phillips was #1 and Capers was #2.

It got me thinking: the great D-coordinators (for the most part) appear to either be flashes in the pan or fast tracking to HC. For example, Vic Fangio can't do diddly without his players the 49ers drafted in the Top 10 year after year.

Finding a DC who is that good means temporary solution (as they'll get the HC gig). But even so, those tend to rise within an organization. So bringing in someone from the outside will far more likely be a flash in the pan that cannot duplicate success. So my next question is: does anyone on the Packers coaching chart have it in them to be the next hot DC?

[call_me_ishmael]

Wade Phillips is hands down the best DC in the NFL in my opinion. Everywhere he goes, the D seems to be pretty great.

I'm just ready for a change. Even if it's just for the sake of change. At least we'd definitively be able to say it's the players or the coach, then. The D is going to be bad this year due to a Bad O, but I am still just ready. Capers has had plenty of time and hasn't done enough.

[Patler]

I think people generally underestimate the effect of the loss of Shields.

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

[beveaux1]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

This is really an excellent post.

[mraynrand]

It's not just Shields.

Losing a guy like Collins so early in his career, when he was Pro-Bowl caliber and still ascending, hurt the defense for not only the years he would have played, but also for the missed opportunities with players at other positions as they tried to find his replacement. Would they have still drafted HHCD with Collins and Burnett on their roster? Who might they have drafted instead? Collins could be playing still today. He just turned 34.

Whether due to injuries or something else, Matthews career as a dominant player lasted just 4, maybe 6 years. Players of the type he was his first 4 years typically dominate for 8-10 years or so and are better than average for a while after that. They often have very long careers, especially when they have the rare combination of size, speed and strength that Matthews has. Only in his 9th year now, it has been a long time since he has worried OCs around the league.

Collins was the best player on defense when he was lost. Matthews was for a short time, then faded away very young. Shields was or could have been the best on defense, then he, too was lost. As a result there has been no one to build around. No one to rely on year after year. The defense has never established a foundation. Their best players never last for an expected career length. That is why the defense is constantly changing. It has had to.

Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

[3irty1]

To get value in the NFL it certainly helps when your veterans earn their paychecks, but the real path to value is in squeezing production from guys on far-below-market rookie contracts. This is where the Packers have suffered most IMO. We hemorrhage high draft picks into a defense where they tend to bust outright or get hurt in ways that hinder development for much of that precious rookie contract. The quintessential case study is Nick Perry. A first round pick who clearly had talent but did nothing production wise until the Packers had to pay fair market value.

[Patler]

Right. But Having to replace Shields cost them the ability to perhaps replace Matthews. People are holding out hope for Biegel, but really, it's hard to hit on a pass rushing specialist so late in the draft. TT has had to take chances on young and/or inexperienced guys to hopefully step up. Clark - probably yes. Randall, Rollins, Lowry, Fackrell - probably no. Where does that leave them. They have marginal defensive backs and are hoping for King to progress and House to play like his best at Jacksonville. That's just wishful thinking. And the D-line is a total mess. Counting on Dial and Lowry for pass rushing ability - that's just dreck. Just look at Carolina in comparison - those guys generate pressure on every play. Perry is a decent OLB, who really is a run-stopping DE - so he can manage some push, but he's no PR specialist. Matthews is finished, unless they can turn him into an effective "W" player, but lately you see him just absolutely gassed for no real reason. And to boot, he's protecting himself from getting hurt - you can see plays where he pulls up all the time now.

So, maybe Capers is at fault, but the personnel isn't helping. And it seems overpriced.

You have said the same thing I did, but focused only on the effect of the loss of Shields. The same thing happened with Collins and the decline of Matthews. Whenever a team loses a valuable starter earlier than planned, there develops an additional unplanned need. If Matthews had maintained his level of play the longshots at Fakrell, Biegel, etc. may not have been needed. One or the other might have been the next Daniels, Sitton, Lang, Bakhtiari, Trotter or Linsley, instead. For the Packer D, the same story has repeated itself every couple years.

For improved qb pressure, I think the guys to watch the rest of 2017 are Montravious Adams and Josh Jones.

[mraynrand]

I was just embellishing.

[Sparkey]

have someone in mind? maybe start a thread about the next d-coor. Would be nice to look at some guys while the season is in full swing. In the right place (and with a pass rusher or two) Perry Fewell can be great. I bet you could get him away from the Jags.

Jim Leonhard from Wisconsin is a rising talent in the coaching ranks.