Mike Pettine

[Smidgeon]

Not sure that "forget that running the ball is an option" is accurate.

2017 27th in carries, 14th in pass attempts, 21st in total plays, 21st in scoring
2016 29th in carries, 5th in pass attempts, 8th in total plays, 4th in scoring
2015 12th in carries, 18th in pass attempts, 9th in total plays, 15th in scoring
2014 14th in carries, 20th in pass attempts, 24th in total plays, 1st in scoring
2013 12th in carries, 18th in pass attempts, 11th in total plays, 8th in scoring
2012 16th in carries, 16th in pass attempts, 9th in total plays, 5th in scoring
2011 26th in carries, 14th in pass attempts, 28th in total plays, 1st in scoring
2010 20th in carries, 16th in pass attempts, 20th in total plays, 10th in scoring

2016 and 2017 it certainly looks true. When did EB take over as OC?

[Joemailman]

2016 and 2017 it certainly looks true. When did EB take over as OC?

2015. 2016 can be explained by the injuries to Lacy and Starks. 2017 they were behind an awful lot. Even when they were winning early, they were being forced to come from behind.

[mraynrand]

If I ran Stubby's offense, I would run 25% of the time in non-end of half/game scenarios. Play action pass 50%, shotgun pass 20%, shotgun run 5%....

Disagree slightly here. Per game theory, you only need the credible threat of running. PA would work just fine on the very first play of the season....

you at least need to have a back of some kind in the backfield to run play action. Duh. So a critical factor for the GBP is how often they go empty. Sorry, I have no numbers, but seems important for run game 'threat' and ability to fool the defense. But a always, the reason you pass all the time is because your guy/offense does it so well.

[Smidgeon]

2015. 2016 can be explained by the injuries to Lacy and Starks. 2017 they were behind an awful lot. Even when they were winning early, they were being forced to come from behind.

Comparing 2017 to the other year Rodgers went down, they both had running back talent although Lacy was better. They commited to running the offense through the run game that year. Maybe because their QB cupboard was bare. This year, they had their second worst rate since the super bowl, despite having two rookies who appeared to belong in the NFL.

[mraynrand]

This year, they had their second worst rate since the super bowl, despite having two rookies who appeared to belong in the NFL.

getting behind and playing from behind for whole games does that to you. They couldn't run as effectively when teams realized they didn't need to defense any pass over 15 yards.

[pbmax]

you at least need to have a back of some kind in the backfield to run play action. Duh. So a critical factor for the GBP is how often they go empty. Sorry, I have no numbers, but seems important for run game 'threat' and ability to fool the defense. But a always, the reason you pass all the time is because your guy/offense does it so well.

Michael Salfino @MichaelSalfino
We had play action stats for a long time. You could at least see that there was no correlation between play action success and running efficiency. And it’s been obvious for decades that there is no correlation between running well and passing well, period.

Defenses REALLY want to stop the run, often to their detriment on 1st and 2nd down. As an example, I give you the phantom play action.

Well, now I can't find it. But someone had video of Peyton Manning faking a handoff to empty space and the ILB taking a step forward to fill against the run. It was an empty backfield. And I believe he has done this numerous times. Point is, you almost don't need to run or threaten to run, to make PA work. Its instinctual in Defenses to obsess about the run first. Its the first read for the ILBs normally.

[mraynrand]

Well, now I can't find it. But someone had video of Peyton Manning faking a handoff to empty space and the ILB taking a step forward to fill against the run. It was an empty backfield. And I believe he has done this numerous times. Point is, you almost don't need to run or threaten to run, to make PA work. Its instinctual in Defenses to obsess about the run first. Its the first read for the ILBs normally.

I remember this! That's pretty funny. It's like ancestral, collective unconscious NFL memory!

[swede]

I remember this! That's pretty funny. It's like ancestral, collective unconscious NFL memory!

Clan of the '85 Bears

[Fritz]

Michael Salfino @MichaelSalfino
We had play action stats for a long time. You could at least see that there was no correlation between play action success and running efficiency. And it’s been obvious for decades that there is no correlation between running well and passing well, period.

Defenses REALLY want to stop the run, often to their detriment on 1st and 2nd down. As an example, I give you the phantom play action.

Well, now I can't find it. But someone had video of Peyton Manning faking a handoff to empty space and the ILB taking a step forward to fill against the run. It was an empty backfield. And I believe he has done this numerous times. Point is, you almost don't need to run or threaten to run, to make PA work. Its instinctual in Defenses to obsess about the run first. Its the first read for the ILBs normally.

My wife gets jealous when I make a pass at a picture of Drew Barrymore.

[swede]

My wife gets jealous when I make a pass at a picture of Drew Barrymore.

Stop taping it to the back of her head.

[mraynrand]

Stop taping it to the back of her head.

you're on a roll today

[bobblehead]

If I ran Stubby's offense, I would run 25% of the time in non-end of half/game scenarios. Play action pass 50%, shotgun pass 20%, shotgun run 5%.

Graham Barfield @GrahamBarfield
New #Titans OC Matt LaFleur has been attached to the two most play-action heavy teams in 2017 as LAR OC (29% of pass plays were PA) and in 2016 as ATL QB Coach (28%). Marcus Mariota led all QBs in YPA on play-action passes (11.1) in 2017, per PFF.

Russell Hudson @rhud1979
You have to run the rock (and run it well) well for play action to work, right?

Graham Barfield @GrahamBarfield
This is a common myth.
Play-action has little to do with success running the ball, and everything to do with deceiving the defense. Play-action was very effective for teams like SEA last year, who had zero consistency running. Balance is overrated.

Brian Burke @bburkeESPN
Can't agree more. Been saying this forever.

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
We've written about this numerous times and have another guest column on the subject coming from @guga31bb after the Super Bowl.

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
What matters is not how well you run. What matters is only that you run enough to make the deception of running believeable.

Brian Burke @bburkeESPN
Disagree slightly here. Per game theory, you only need the credible threat of running. PA would work just fine on the very first play of the season.

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
Right, PA would work fine on the first play of the season because there's an assumption that no team in the NFL runs 90% of the time.

And I'm not disagreeing. Part of the problem is we line up shotgun, semi empty backfield and rarely if ever run from that formation. You have to make the D believe that you might possibly run sometimes if the moon is out in broad daylight. Stubby does not like the run and everyone knows it. We don't run enough play action to fool anyone. Our RB line up to pass block and we don't run enough screens. End result is D pins the ears back and floods the zones. Could you imagine the success play action would have if we ran the ball like we did when Hundley was QB.

[bobblehead]

you at least need to have a back of some kind in the backfield to run play action. Duh. So a critical factor for the GBP is how often they go empty. Sorry, I have no numbers, but seems important for run game 'threat' and ability to fool the defense. But a always, the reason you pass all the time is because your guy/offense does it so well.

But...there is more to an offense than scoring. Keeping your D off the field rested and the other teams O off the field and out of rhythm is nice. And even if you pass well, if you give the threat of running when they sell out to stop the pass think of how much MORE effective it can be.

[bobblehead]

Michael Salfino @MichaelSalfino
We had play action stats for a long time. You could at least see that there was no correlation between play action success and running efficiency. And it’s been obvious for decades that there is no correlation between running well and passing well, period.

Defenses REALLY want to stop the run, often to their detriment on 1st and 2nd down. As an example, I give you the phantom play action.

Well, now I can't find it. But someone had video of Peyton Manning faking a handoff to empty space and the ILB taking a step forward to fill against the run. It was an empty backfield. And I believe he has done this numerous times. Point is, you almost don't need to run or threaten to run, to make PA work. Its instinctual in Defenses to obsess about the run first. Its the first read for the ILBs normally.

And again, that is my point. I'm not just whining that we don't run well, I'm whining that we don't even TRY to run too often.

[mraynrand]

But...there is more to an offense than scoring. Keeping your D off the field rested and the other teams O off the field and out of rhythm is nice. And even if you pass well, if you give the threat of running when they sell out to stop the pass think of how much MORE effective it can be.

Of course, there are offenses that use the pass as effectively as a run to work the clock. The Packers put the ball in Rodgers' hands because he's that good. Unless the line is total crap, and the defense either is good enough to generate instant pass rush, on average, having Rodgers pass the ball is a better choice than handing it off. Especially when you draft linemen to pass pro. The run is a change of pace, a way to keep the defense honest. You run just enough so that the defense has to be honest.

There are a few games I recall where Packer opponents basically keyed on pass defense and destroyed the Packers. But those defenses (Giants, Arizona, Seattle) could reasonably defense the run without keying on it at all.