The Secret of Bill Belichick

[Maxie the Taxi]

Very interesting articles on Hoody Genius.

The secret of Bill Belichick

Vox Day writes:

I've been very impressed by Bill Belichick over the years. He is one of the greatest NFL coaches of all time, if not the greatest. But one thing has always confused me about him. He is both a superlative strategist AND a superlative tactician. This is not normal. In fact, this should not even be possible, due to the way that two entirely different types of thought processes are involved.

Now, an intelligent man can certainly perform both functions at an above-average level, but to be better than nearly everyone else at both is so unlikely that it borders on the impossible. However, it turns out that Belichick is not the rare exception after all, that he is merely a great tactician. How, then, has he become known as such a great football strategist as well?

The answer is that there are two Bill Belichicks. Or rather, there is a brilliant strategist who is entirely content to remain in Belichick's shadow. The two best friends have been a team since their year together at Phillips Exeter Academy, but it is Ernie Adams, not Bill Belichick, who is the literal genius. The interesting thing is that neither the sports media nor most of the Patriots players truly understand the nature of their incredibly effective partnership.

Unlike the other two, Harmon knows what's up. Belichick is the leader and the tactical genius, and Adams is the strategic brain. He is a statistics quant who "helps the coaching staff" by writing the weekly game plans which Belichick then implements. In game development terms, Adams is the designer and Belichick is the producer. That's how the Patriots are able to completely change their style from week to week. That's also why it has almost been irrelevant who has been serving as offensive or defensive coordinator over the years, and why very successful OCs and DCs have struggled after leaving New England.

How do I know this? Well, you see, I have my own connections at Phillips Exeter Academy, both friends and family. And that's why we're not likely to see Brady leave New England before he retires, no matter what scenarios the media happens to concoct. Brady, more than anyone, understands how important Adams is to his historic success.

This also may explain why Belichick never talks much about football strategy. First, it's really not his thing. And second, doing so would almost certainly reveal his unexpected limitations on the subject.

Ernie Adams’ role with Patriots appears to be discovered

Ryan Hannable writes:

One player did have a little more to say than the others — cornerback Eric Rowe.

“All I know is he’s probably one of the smartest guys next to Bill [Belichick],” he said. “He’s the one that breaks down offense, defense, special teams. Usually he picks out the plays that are probably going to get ran against us and those are the ones that we practice.”

Rowe added: “He plays a critical part. He’s seen so much film — I remember I asked him about a play and he recalled a play from like the early 2000s and the game and the score. I was like, ‘Oh my Gosh.’ He plays a critical piece. He obviously has an idea of what other teams are going to run against us so we can prepare for them in practice.”

Based on Rowe’s explanation, perhaps this makes sense as to why Adams studies the opponents' side of the field before every game.

While it is still not totally clear exactly what Adams does, it is certainly clear he’s a valuable part of the Patriots’ success.

Tom Brady won his 3rd NFL MVP award this year. How much did Ernie Adams have to do with that?

IMO Tom Brady is as much a product of the Patriot system as he is of his own skills and talent. In fact, I'd go so far as to say he's hugely overrated. I read this week that Vonn Miller (I think) said that the way to beat Brady is to sack him. I've always thought so myself. The thing is, how do you get to him?

The same was true about Payton Manning. Neither QB's are gifted with Aaron Rodgers level escapability. Both rely on getting rid of the ball quickling, knowing what the opposition is likely to do and knowing where the game plan says their guys should be.

I'm expecting Brady to get sacked today. Hopefully the Eagles D will make him look like the overrated old man he is.

[Unless of course Ernie Adams has done his homework and figured out where the Eagles D is vulnerable so Brady can avoid the sacks and pick it apart. LOL]

[pbmax]

I think its highly unlikely that Adams is the strategist behind game plans, at least not the construction of one. I much more buy the idea behind the WEEI article, that Adams specializes in film and advanced scouting. Maybe you could credit Adams with setting goals or targets, but I suspect he is the guy that Al Davis was always worried about, the one that would find your playbook or scout you in an ultra-light.

Knowing what the other team is likely to do is more tactical that strategic to me, but regardless, that is something which could be accomplished through sheer observation, illegal taping and an encyclopedic knowledge.

Crafting a game plan to take advantage of that is pure football acumen.

Not being able to continue Belichick's success is a problem because not all of these channels of information can be brought to bear by other people as well as he can.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

IMO Tom Brady is as much a product of the Patriot system as he is of his own skills and talent. In fact, I'd go so far as to say he's hugely overrated.

I don't think Tommy is overrated, slightly or hugely. I mean, he was a 6th round pick, for Gaylord Focker's sake. Perhaps Adams indeed has big role within Belichickism, but in a QB-plagued league, there would be no Patriot Dynasty without Brady. In addition to possessing a great arm, Brady's the greatest field general since Spartacus. No doubt in my humble mind, Brady is the GOAT of pro pigskin.

Gotta asks: Do you think Bart Starr was overrated? I wasn't around during Starr's heydays, so I can't say whether or not he's overrated. But based on my reading of wiki, seems like Starr was a late round pick who excelled mainly b/c of the Lombardi system.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I think it's highly likely Vox Day is correct and Ernie Adams is Bellicheat's secret game plan guru, just because it seems like Bellicheat's MO. Guessing what the other team is doing by observation and developing counter moves on the fly is tactics almost by definition. Knowing what the other team has done in the past and developing an overall game plan to counter these tendencies is strategy. I don't know who puts together the Patriot game plan or who has the most input on it, but Bellicheats ability as a tactician is obvious to most observers.

[Maxie the Taxi]

I don't think Tommy is overrated, slightly or hugely. I mean, he was a 6th round pick, for Gaylord Focker's sake. Perhaps Adams indeed has big role within Belichickism, but in a QB-plagued league, there would be no Patriot Dynasty without Brady. In addition to possessing a great arm, Brady's the greatest field general since Spartacus. No doubt in my humble mind, Brady is the GOAT of pro pigskin.

Gotta asks: Do you think Bart Starr was overrated? I wasn't around during Starr's heydays, so I can't say whether or not he's overrated. But based on my reading of wiki, seems like Starr was a late round pick who excelled mainly b/c of the Lombardi system.

Starr definitely profited from the Lombardi system. It's hard to compare QB's from that era to this, given the fact that then QB's called their own plays all day long. Some HC's sent the plays in every down with messengers, but Lombardi rarely did.

I think the biggest factor in the Packers' success in the era was talent at every position, offense and defense. High draft choices and great trades stocked the team with super talent and Lombardi wrung the last drop out of the players. I never felt we went into a game in those days out-manned or out-coached. With the team he had Lombardi didn't need Johnny Unitas to win. He needed a brilliant field general with an adequate arm and guts. Starr was that.

In that context, Starr was the greatest QB of his era. On the other hand, if I had a team then with mediocre talent, I'd probably want Unitas at QB instead of Starr. In many ways, Unitas was similar to Rodgers. He could carry a team on his back and win games with his arm alone. That's not to say the Colts weren't stacked with talent too in those days, but they weren't stacked across the board like the Packers were.

If you had your druthers, would you rather the Packers have Brady or Arod as our QB, given the quality of the Packers' players and HC?

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Starr definitely profited from the Lombardi system. It's hard to compare QB's from that era to this, given the fact that then QB's called their own plays all day long. Some HC's sent the plays in every down with messengers, but Lombardi rarely did.

I think the biggest factor in the Packers' success in the era was talent at every position, offense and defense. High draft choices and great trades stocked the team with super talent and Lombardi wrung the last drop out of the players. I never felt we went into a game in those days out-manned or out-coached. With the team he had Lombardi didn't need Johnny Unitas to win. He needed a brilliant field general with an adequate arm and guts. Starr was that.

In that context, Starr was the greatest QB of his era. On the other hand, if I had a team then with mediocre talent, I'd probably want Unitas at QB instead of Starr. In many ways, Unitas was similar to Rodgers. He could carry a team on his back and win games with his arm alone. That's not to say the Colts weren't stacked with talent too in those days, but they weren't stacked across the board like the Packers were.

If you had your druthers, would you rather the Packers have Brady or Arod as our QB, given the quality of the Packers' players and HC?

That's a good question. Both are elite QBs. Have strong arms. Brady's more accurate, more durable and a better pocket passer than Rodgers. Rodgers' more athletic, obviously. I'm leaning toward Brady, especially if both in are their prime.

One thing for sure, I would never subscribe to that draft and develop bullshit with an elite QB like Brady or Rodgers on my team. Belichickism works.

[Maxie the Taxi]

That's a good question. Both are elite QBs. Have strong arms. Brady's more accurate, more durable and a better pocket passer than Rodgers. Rodgers' more athletic, obviously. I'm leaning toward Brady, especially if both in are their prime.

One thing for sure, I would never subscribe to that draft and develop bullshit with an elite QB like Brady or Rodgers on my team. Belichickism works.

I agree with you, but I'm in the minority around here.

And for the record, I'd for sure pick Arod. His mobility and creativity is the deciding factor for me. Packers don't have the coaching for Brady's game to succeed here.

[Rutnstrut]

I'd take Brady all day, just for the fact that he is much more durable. But if we are granting wishes I want hoody as coach.

[pbmax]

I think it's highly likely Vox Day is correct and Ernie Adams is Bellicheat's secret game plan guru, just because it seems like Bellicheat's MO. Guessing what the other team is doing by observation and developing counter moves on the fly is tactics almost by definition. Knowing what the other team has done in the past and developing an overall game plan to counter these tendencies is strategy. I don't know who puts together the Patriot game plan or who has the most input on it, but Bellicheats ability as a tactician is obvious to most observers.

I think the point is they do not wait to develop counter moves on the fly, if by that you mean in game. They come in with a plan based on advanced scouting to do certain things to hurt the opposition. If it doesn't work, or the opponent does something unexpected, Belichick will abandoned weeks worth of work to stop the bleeding quickly. He makes a strategic choice but part of that strategy is to abandon choices that aren't working. Then employ alternate strategy or tactic to take what the defense is giving you.

McCarthy on the other hand gets a little greedy. He sees Seattle in Cover 3 with bail technique outside and he wants to throw on it. When the pass rush plus excellent coverage gives him fits, he adjusts after the half.

Same with San Fran. Cover 2 man with safeties deep. He wants to throw deep down the sides and the seams. When the pass rush and coverage work well in tandem and he has no true threat in the seam, he takes forever to help the tackles and chip the pass rushers.

He also then has trouble because he is against calling stuff they have not repped in practice. So a new game plan mid game doesn't happen. I think this is why M3 and Rodgers are not more efficient at winning when behind and Brady seems to do it every other week.

[Rutnstrut]

I think the point is they do not wait to develop counter moves on the fly, if by that you mean in game. They come in with a plan based on advanced scouting to do certain things to hurt the opposition. If it doesn't work, or the opponent does something unexpected, Belichick will abandoned weeks worth of work to stop the bleeding quickly. He makes a strategic choice but part of that strategy is to abandon choices that aren't working. Then employ alternate strategy or tactic to take what the defense is giving you.

McCarthy on the other hand gets a little greedy. He sees Seattle in Cover 3 with bail technique outside and he wants to throw on it. When the pass rush plus excellent coverage gives him fits, he adjusts after the half.

Same with San Fran. Cover 2 man with safeties deep. He wants to throw deep down the sides and the seams. When the pass rush and coverage work well in tandem and he has no true threat in the seam, he takes forever to help the tackles and chip the pass rushers.

He also then has trouble because he is against calling stuff they have not repped in practice. So a new game plan mid game doesn't happen. I think this is why M3 and Rodgers are not more efficient at winning when behind and Brady seems to do it every other week.

In short hoody is awesome and stubby is stubby.

[swede]

I read this week that Vonn Miller (I think) said that the way to beat Brady is to sack him. I've always thought so myself. The thing is, how do you get to him?]

I think it was Troy Aikman, perhaps before a playoff game, who upon being told that the defense intended to make sacking him and hitting him and getting him uncomfortable in the pocket a priority, said, "Oh you mean this week they are really REALLY going to try to sack me?"

I thought that was funny.

[mraynrand]

I read this week that Vonn Miller (I think) said that the way to beat Brady is to sack him. I've always thought so myself. The thing is, how do you get to him?

I heard Romanowski on the radio basically say that if you get a chance to hit Brady like Gronkowski got hit, you take it. He argued that knocking Gronk out of the game should have won it for Jacksonville. So it was a good play. So against Brady, get some extra shots in - hit him as late as you can get away with. If you get a 15 yard penalty and a fine, but you knock Brady out, so what?

[Zool]

Very few QBs play the same way after getting knocked around. This doesn’t feel like a surprise.

Brady and Belly made each other great instead of very good.

[pbmax]

I heard Romanowski on the radio basically say that if you get a chance to hit Brady like Gronkowski got hit, you take it. He argued that knocking Gronk out of the game should have won it for Jacksonville. So it was a good play. So against Brady, get some extra shots in - hit him as late as you can get away with. If you get a 15 yard penalty and a fine, but you knock Brady out, so what?

This is why I find the idea that Adams was targeted this year to be quite ordinary and expected.

[pbmax]

I think it was Troy Aikman, perhaps before a playoff game, who upon being told that the defense intended to make sacking him and hitting him and getting him uncomfortable in the pocket a priority, said, "Oh you mean this week they are really REALLY going to try to sack me?"

I thought that was funny.

Yep. QB is always the target unless the pass rusher is your buddy (Peppers on Rodgers this year, Strahan on Favre during record breaker).