Easiest position to predict in the draft

[pbmax]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-some-positions-riskier-to-pick-than-others-in-the-nfl-draft/

2nd round NFL O lineman are the answer. Followed by other O lineman, linebackers and then DBs. No one except Ted Thompson should draft WR apparently.

[Harlan Huckleby]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...the-nfl-draft/

2nd round NFL O lineman are the answer. Followed by other O lineman, linebackers and then DBs. No one except Ted Thompson should draft WR apparently.

With the exception of QB, it does look like length of career correlates with safe picks. OL & DB have longest careers, WR & RB the shortest

Maybe QBs and kickers have careers skewed long because nature of position allows oldsters, less contact.

[Guiness]

Most first round guards are mid round picks (very few top 10). And most don't washout. They aren't remembered because they don't washout and no one cares about guards.

Think Nelson, Iupati, DeCastro, Pouncey, Albert, Joseph, Grubbs, Hutchinson, and even Logan Mankins . I think Cooper (Arizona) is the biggest/only first round washout in the past 15 years.

Being as he's still in the league, Chance Warmack isn't a washout, but I'm sure the Titans expected more out of their top 10 pick at guard...a decade long presence at the position at least.

Danny Watkins didn't last through his rookie contract - he just didn't want to be there.

I think there are enough variables at every position.

[mraynrand]

Being as he's still in the league, Chance Warmack isn't a washout...

I debated including him. Yeah, I agree they expected more.

I still think Interior linemen, defensive backs and linebackers do better and my theory is that's because the positions can tolerate lower-performing athletes due to compensation from the more skilled surrounding positions/not being asked to do as much physically. (Guards are protected by Tackles and QBs, Safeties by good Corners, interior LBs and run-stopping LBs by d-linemen - and the OLBs). When those in higher skill-requiring positions fail, there's nothing to protect them and they're gone faster.

[pbmax]

The thing about early round QBs is that they act in the League even if they only give the appearance of talent. See Drew Henson.

But that 538 chart is based, in part, on average value. So they should have actually had some contributions.