THE MOST IMPORTANT QB STAT

[pbmax]

Mike Tanier @MikeTanier

DVOA and DYAR by @fboutsiders are the best metrics for ranking QBs, teams etc. Folks who don't want to use it should just use the raw rates without making a smoothie out of them: 65% complete, 9 YPA, etc.

DYAR QBs (Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) -- Rodgers ranked 9th

Player		Team	DYAR
P.Mahomes	KC	1,678
D.Brees		NO	1,462
P.Rivers	LAC	1,234
J.Goff		LAR	1,080
M.Ryan		ATL	976
B.Roethlisber	PIT	898
T.Brady		NE	721
R.Wilson	SEA	666
A.Rodgers	GB	589

[pbmax]

Completion %, 25th ranked

                                    
Rk               Player  Tm Cmp% Y/A
1            Drew Brees NOR 75.7 8.3
2          Kirk Cousins MIN 71.3 7.1
3             Matt Ryan ATL 70.5 8.1
4          Carson Wentz PHI 69.6 7.7
5            Derek Carr OAK 69.4 7.5
6         Philip Rivers LAC 69.4 8.9
7        Marcus Mariota TEN 69.1 7.8
8            Cam Newton CAR 68.8 7.4
9          Dak Prescott DAL 68.2 7.5
10          Andrew Luck IND 67.7 7.1
11          Eli Manning NYG 67.7 7.6
12   Ben Roethlisberger PIT 67.0 7.7
13       Ryan Tannehill MIA 67.0 8.0
14       Deshaun Watson HOU 66.9 8.2
15      Patrick Mahomes KAN 66.8 8.9
16     Ryan Fitzpatrick TAM 66.7 9.6
17       Russell Wilson SEA 66.6 8.3
18     Matthew Stafford DET 66.5 6.9
19            Tom Brady NWE 65.6 7.8
20       Jameis Winston TAM 64.8 8.0
21           Jared Goff LAR 64.4 8.6
22       Baker Mayfield CLE 64.4 7.7
23    Mitchell Trubisky CHI 64.4 7.3
24           Alex Smith WAS 62.5 6.6
25        Aaron Rodgers GNB 62.0 7.5

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/10/2018.

[pbmax]

Yards Per Attempt -- Rodgers ranked 17th

                               
Rk               Player  Tm Y/A
1      Ryan Fitzpatrick TAM 9.6
2       Patrick Mahomes KAN 8.9
3         Philip Rivers LAC 8.9
4            Jared Goff LAR 8.6
5            Drew Brees NOR 8.3
6        Russell Wilson SEA 8.3
7        Deshaun Watson HOU 8.2
8             Matt Ryan ATL 8.1
9        Jameis Winston TAM 8.0
10       Ryan Tannehill MIA 8.0
11            Tom Brady NWE 7.8
12       Marcus Mariota TEN 7.8
13   Ben Roethlisberger PIT 7.7
14         Carson Wentz PHI 7.7
15       Baker Mayfield CLE 7.7
16          Eli Manning NYG 7.6
17        Aaron Rodgers GNB 7.5
18           Derek Carr OAK 7.5
19         Dak Prescott DAL 7.5
20           Cam Newton CAR 7.4
21    Mitchell Trubisky CHI 7.3
22          Andrew Luck IND 7.1
23         Kirk Cousins MIN 7.1
24        Blake Bortles JAX 7.0
25          Andy Dalton CIN 7.0
26     Matthew Stafford DET 6.9
27          Case Keenum DEN 6.9
28          Sam Darnold NYJ 6.7
29           Alex Smith WAS 6.6
30           Joe Flacco BAL 6.5
31           Josh Allen BUF 6.3
32           Josh Rosen ARI 6.1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 12/10/2018.

[gbgary]

pb's stats above

man...not the kind of stuff you want to see from the highest paid guy in the league. sure hope things are better next year. i don't want to say i told you so.

[mraynrand]

I suppose that's a biased but fair description what the Packers do at times. It got us 34 points on not to bad a defense last Sunday before we took our foot off the gas. I'd much rather have that than a lot of wasted downs on running plays. The scramble drill that you describe is pretty much the best option when the O Line can't just play it straight up and stop the pass rush. As for that basic rub thing/legal picks, I'm fairly sure the Packers do that a lot as well as the quick screen to Adams or another WR.

The thing several people in here have advocated is getting rid of the ball quick as a means of compensating for the poor pass blocking. I say again, that is a recipe for interceptions - as we saw a couple of times against the Falcons when the streak was almost broken.

Rand, you also said you'd rather have a better percentage of 3rd down conversions than a lack of interceptions. We would all like that better percentage on 3rd down, but absolutely not at the risk of interceptions. Giving up possession 40 or so yards down field on a 4th down punt is not ideal, but it beats the hell out of giving up the ball and maybe a quick touchdown on an interception.

I don't know that the offense Sunday was the EO offense. Have to look it over again.

I also don't know what trade off will lead to better third down conversions a the expense of lower INT rate. Maybe throwing high to Graham over the middle instead of at his knees where he can't catch it easily nor run with it even if he does catch it. Or slants - you throw too many, and the LB drops back and snags one - look for Mack to get one just like this on Sunday if they go short passing all game long.

But honestly, taking the sack or throwing it away is mostly better than INTs. But getting in lots of third and longs is a special failure of the offense (and I don't know how frequent it is compared to earlier ion the year).

Still, this is all blowing smoke. The Packers are failing on offense because their QB was hurt/less efficient, their O-line is a mess, they don't have an effective balance of running/short passes on early downs to create higher percentage 3rd downs, and they have personnel problems at WR as well. Generally, their offense is a collection of 'meh' at various positions, leaving you with an overall 'meh' offense. It's hard to see how that will dramatically improve here on the stretch run, especially against Chicago. Their last two games should be highly winnable (but so was AZ). Chicago should be a very difficult game to win given the team's personnel shortcomings. (in the Chicago thread, maybe talk about the best strategy to win will be working the edges with four wideouts).

[Tony Oday]

Wins are all that matter, the rest get you paid see Cousins.

[mraynrand]

Wins ar ed all that matter, the test get you paid see Cousins.

it's a little early to start drinking, no?

[Tony Oday]

it's a little early to start drinking, no?

Typed too fast, damn phone.

[mraynrand]

Typed too fast, damn phone.

[smuggler]

DYAR being so heavily slanted to favor Mahomes over Rodgers leads me to believe that the statistic is not yet refined enough (in its ability to separate the ability of a QB from the ability of his offensive teammates). I say this in spite of the fact that I admit Mahomes has been the better QB this season - just not in that magnitude.

[pbmax]

DYAR being so heavily slanted to favor Mahomes over Rodgers leads me to believe that the statistic is not yet refined enough (in its ability to separate the ability of a QB from the ability of his offensive teammates). I say this in spite of the fact that I admit Mahomes has been the better QB this season - just not in that magnitude.

No doubt. But I think the overall thrust of those three numbers (DYAR, YPA and comp%) suggest Rodgers and the offense aren't bottom of the barrel , but they are decidedly average these days. And that is quite a different year for them.

The best stat I know of to track the kind of year a QB is having alone is Air Yards. Distance the actual throw traveled before the receiver added YAC. Brian Burke used to do it but he doesn't update his own site since he started work with ESPN. But it may be elsewhere.

[Patler]

…. and the most important stat for a running back is fumbles.

[Fritz]

…. and the most important stat for a running back is fumbles.

Jamaal Williams is an All Pro.

[pbmax]

Jamaal Williams is an All Pro.

I still think Williams and Jones in the backfield and being under center would unlock a LOT of good things for the Packers. Both those guys can catch the ball so you can match Jones on a LB and still get protection. Williams can run screens and check downs.

You get play action to open up the middle of the field.

[beveaux1]

I still think Williams and Jones in the backfield and being under center would unlock a LOT of good things for the Packers. Both those guys can catch the ball so you can match Jones on a LB and still get protection. Williams can run screens and check downs.

You get play action to open up the middle of the field.

I really agree with this. Williams is a willing blocker and on short yardage he might be a better option. At the very least, there could be confusion from the defense about who to key on.