Most Questionable Picks in 2019 NFL Draft Round One

[mraynrand]

"Projects", I would think, are players chosen way earlier than most people project.

These picks are called 'reaches'

real bargains - like the consensus toss up to be the first overall pick being taken at #21 or whatever.

24. But yes, when a player is picked well below his expected draft position, that player is a bargain. But there is a difference between 'bargains' the day after the draft and ten years after the draft. All sorts of players who drop from their expected draft position and were called 'bargains' by Hairdo Kiper in May, still fail so ultimately were no bargain, and some - like Rodgers or a Terrell Davis are bargains in spades.

"Projects" tend to be younger guys, guys playing out of position, raw guys from lower tier programs, etc who need to develop their skills. Sam Shields was considered a project because he only had a year at CB shifted from WR. Collins, Adams, Clark and Gary all fit the description to a small extent, but mostly they were/are all just rookies who need/ed some seasoning.

[Bretsky]

I would just like to point out to whoever told me a week ago that they have never heard Gary referred to as a project, that this article clearly calls him a project

Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

[red]

Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

he didn't have double digit sacks in 3 years of college....

total

[red]

or a T****** D***

are we even allowed to say his name on a packers board?

no one mentions that other horse face fuck that cheated us out of another lombardi trophy

[pbmax]

Double Digit Sacks is a realistic expectation for a top 12 pick

If he stats don't translate we'll hear the same drivel about him making everybody better again. Michigan had one of the most talented defenses in the country. They all made each other better.

I think this is far less common than you think. There are less than 20 guys who hit double digit sacks in a given year. An eventual DD sack year might be more realistic. You don't even average 1 guy like this a year. This is a list of those rookies with double digit sacks from Ted Year 1 onward, 15 years. 3 of the 9 weren't drafted in the Top 12.

                                                                                
                                              Game                          Tack
Rk             Player Year Age Draft  Tm  Lg  G GS   Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1       Bradley Chubb 2018  22   1-5 DEN NFL 16 16 12.0   41  19   60  14     21
2           Joey Bosa 2016  21   1-3 SDG NFL 12 11 10.5   29  12   41  17     21
3          Von Miller 2011  22   1-2 DEN NFL 15 15 11.5   50  14   64  19     29
4         Aldon Smith 2011  22   1-7 SFO NFL 16  0 14.0   31   6   37  13     27
5       Ndamukong Suh 2010  23   1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0   48  17   65  13     17
6       Clay Matthews 2009  23  1-26 GNB NFL 16 13 10.0   36  14   50  17     21
7        Brian Orakpo 2009  23  1-13 WAS NFL 16 16 11.0   38  13   51  13     15
8    Kamerion Wimbley 2006  23  1-13 CLE NFL 16 15 11.0   44  18   62  13     26
9     Shawne Merriman 2005  21  1-12 SDG NFL 15 10 10.0   43  14   57         10

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/9/2019.

[pbmax]

Here are the guys who did this as rookies outside the first round.

                                                                             
                                           Game                          Tack
Rk          Player Year Age Draft  Tm  Lg  G GS   Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1    Mark Anderson 2006  23 5-159 CHI NFL 16  1 12.0   23   5   28   9      9

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/9/2019.

[pbmax]

Here are guys that eventually got a 10 sack season and were drafted in the first round.

                                                         
Rk               Player Draft From   To          Tm Count
1        Julius Peppers   1-2 2005 2017 CAR/CHI/GNB     8
2         DeMarcus Ware  1-11 2006 2014     DAL/DEN     8
3            Von Miller   1-2 2011 2018         DEN     7
4          John Abraham  1-13 2007 2013     ATL/ARI     5
5        Chandler Jones  1-21 2013 2018     NWE/ARI     5
6         Terrell Suggs  1-10 2010 2017         BAL     5
7             J.J. Watt  1-11 2012 2018         HOU     5
8        Mario Williams   1-1 2007 2014     HOU/BUF     5
9        Dwight Freeney  1-11 2005 2010         IND     4
10       Cameron Jordan  1-24 2013 2018         NOR     4
11        Ryan Kerrigan  1-16 2014 2018         WAS     4
12          Khalil Mack   1-5 2015 2018     OAK/CHI     4
13        Clay Matthews  1-26 2009 2014         GNB     4
14         Andre Carter   1-7 2007 2011     WAS/NWE     3
15         Aaron Donald  1-13 2015 2018         LAR     3
16           Tamba Hali  1-20 2010 2013         KAN     3
17      Shawne Merriman  1-12 2005 2007         SDG     3
18         Brian Orakpo  1-13 2009 2016     WAS/TEN     3
19    Jason Pierre-Paul  1-15 2011 2018     NYG/TAM     3
20         Robert Quinn  1-14 2012 2014         STL     3
21        Ezekiel Ansah   1-5 2015 2017         DET     2
22          Jason Babin  1-27 2010 2011     TEN/PHI     2
23            Joey Bosa   1-3 2016 2017         LAC     2
24             Dee Ford  1-23 2016 2018         KAN     2
25         Jerry Hughes  1-31 2013 2014         BUF     2
26        Melvin Ingram  1-18 2015 2017         LAC     2
27           Chris Long   1-2 2011 2012         STL     2
28          Aldon Smith   1-7 2011 2012         SFO     2
29           Will Smith  1-18 2006 2009         NOR     2
30   Muhammad Wilkerson  1-30 2013 2015         NYJ     2
31          Vic Beasley   1-8 2016 2016         ATL     1
32     DeForest Buckner   1-7 2018 2018         SFO     1
33        Bradley Chubb   1-5 2018 2018         DEN     1
34         Fletcher Cox  1-12 2018 2018         PHI     1
35       Marcell Dareus   1-3 2014 2014         BUF     1
36           Greg Ellis   1-8 2007 2007         DAL     1
37        Myles Garrett   1-1 2018 2018         CLE     1
38      Cameron Heyward  1-31 2017 2017         PIT     1
39       Patrick Kerney  1-30 2007 2007         SEA     1
40     Whitney Mercilus  1-26 2015 2015         HOU     1
41          Calvin Pace  1-18 2013 2013         NYJ     1
42           Nick Perry  1-28 2016 2016         GNB     1
43      Julian Peterson  1-16 2006 2006         SEA     1
44         Trevor Pryce  1-28 2006 2006         BAL     1
45          Simeon Rice   1-3 2005 2005         TAM     1
46         Warren Sapp*  1-12 2006 2006         OAK     1
47      Anthony Spencer  1-26 2012 2012         DAL     1
48        Ndamukong Suh   1-2 2010 2010         DET     1
49            T.J. Watt  1-30 2018 2018         PIT     1
50     Kamerion Wimbley  1-13 2006 2006         CLE     1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 6/9/2019.

[Bretsky]

I think this is far less common than you think. There are less than 20 guys who hit double digit sacks in a given year. An eventual DD sack year might be more realistic. You don't even average 1 guy like this a year. This is a list of those rookies with double digit sacks from Ted Year 1 onward, 15 years. 3 of the 9 weren't drafted in the Top 12.

                                                                                
                                              Game                          Tack
Rk             Player Year Age Draft  Tm  Lg  G GS   Sk Solo Ast Comb TFL QBHits
1       Bradley Chubb 2018  22   1-5 DEN NFL 16 16 12.0   41  19   60  14     21
2           Joey Bosa 2016  21   1-3 SDG NFL 12 11 10.5   29  12   41  17     21
3          Von Miller 2011  22   1-2 DEN NFL 15 15 11.5   50  14   64  19     29
4         Aldon Smith 2011  22   1-7 SFO NFL 16  0 14.0   31   6   37  13     27
5       Ndamukong Suh 2010  23   1-2 DET NFL 16 16 10.0   48  17   65  13     17
6       Clay Matthews 2009  23  1-26 GNB NFL 16 13 10.0   36  14   50  17     21
7        Brian Orakpo 2009  23  1-13 WAS NFL 16 16 11.0   38  13   51  13     15
8    Kamerion Wimbley 2006  23  1-13 CLE NFL 16 15 11.0   44  18   62  13     26
9     Shawne Merriman 2005  21  1-12 SDG NFL 15 10 10.0   43  14   57         10

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generaed 6/9/2019.

More evidence we should be able to expect double digit sacks. Several of these guys were drafted around 12. I would think the Fluffies would expect that out of him. After all, the Smith brothers should make those around them better and mean nobody will be focusing on shutting Gary down. No need to make excuses for underachieving anymore.

[RashanGary]

You sound like a jaded troll, bretsky! Relax dude!

[Guiness]

These picks are called 'reaches'

24. But yes, when a player is picked well below his expected draft position, that player is a bargain. But there is a difference between 'bargains' the day after the draft and ten years after the draft. All sorts of players who drop from their expected draft position and were called 'bargains' by Hairdo Kiper in May, still fail so ultimately were no bargain, and some - like Rodgers or a Terrell Davis are bargains in spades.

"Projects" tend to be younger guys, guys playing out of position, raw guys from lower tier programs, etc who need to develop their skills. Sam Shields was considered a project because he only had a year at CB shifted from WR. Collins, Adams, Clark and Gary all fit the description to a small extent, but mostly they were/are all just rookies who need/ed some seasoning.

I forget, was Donald Driver a project or a bargain?

[texaspackerbacker]

Driver was a low (7th) round pick. He was one of my proudest calls ever - in the old Journal/Sentinel forum - advocating for the Packers to keep him and play him more at a time when there wasn't much support for that. It's entirely possible to be both a project and a bargain. For sure, Driver was a project, but considering how many 7th rounders fail, I'd call him a bargain too.

[HarveyWallbangers]

The most sacks by an OLB per season in a Pettine defense (most of these were damn good defenses):

2009 Calvin Pace 8.0
2010 Bryan Thomas 6.0
2011 Aaron Maybin 6.0
2012 Quinton Coples 5.5
2013 Jerry Hughes 10.0
2014 Paul Kruger 11.0
2015 Amonty Bryant 5.5

But were supposed to expect a rookie to get 10 sacks or it will be a disappointment? Really? 11 sacks would tie the highest ever by an OLB under Pettine. A rookie who is splitting time with quality veterans has no chance at it. It's more likely that you'll see Clark get 6-7 sacks, Z. Smith get 7-8 sacks, P. Smith get 6-7 sacks, Gary gets 5-6 sacks, Daniels gets 5-6 sacks, Martinez gets 4-5 sacks, and Fackrell gets 4-5 sacks.

[Patler]

It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.

[pbmax]

More evidence we should be able to expect double digit sacks. Several of these guys were drafted around 12. I would think the Fluffies would expect that out of him. After all, the Smith brothers should make those around them better and mean nobody will be focusing on shutting Gary down. No need to make excuses for underachieving anymore.

9 players out of fourteen drafts is not even 50%. Its evidence you shouldn't expect double digit sacks. If two pass rushers went in each year, the rate of hitting that benchmark is well below 33%. And there are more than 2 rushers taken in the first round each year.

[Patler]

All-time sacks leader Bruce Smith had 6.5 sacks as a rookie after being the first pick in the NFL draft.
Chris Doleman had 0.5 as a rookie and 3.0 in his second season after being the fourth overall pick.
DeMarcus Ware had 8.0 sacks after being the 11th pick.
Michael Strahan had 1.0, 4.5, 7.5 and 5.0 his first four seasons; of course he was the 40th overall pick.
Jason Taylor had 5.0, 9.0 and 2.5 his first three seasons after being the 73rd pick.

These guys are all in the top 10 all-time sacks leaders, and except for Ware, who is not yet eligible, are Hall of Famers.

But we should expect Gary to have 10 this year?

I should also point out that others in the all-time top 10 who failed to reach 10 in their early careers seasons include Greene (0, 7.0, 6.5), Dent (3.0) and Randle (1.0, 9.5); but they were not high draft picks. The only ones in the top 10 who DID have double-digit rookie seasons were White and Peppers.