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Most Questionable Picks in 2019 NFL Draft Round One

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  • #31
    Here is why people shouldn't necessarily expect an OLB to get double-digit sacks in Pettine's defense:

    https://packerswire.usatoday.com/201...-mike-pettine/

    The Packers new defensive coordinator places a premium on rushing the passer from the inside.

    “That’s where it starts. It starts up front. People talk about the exterior pass rush, I think the interior pass rush is as important or maybe potentially more important,” Pettine said Thursday. “If you can be dominant inside, I think that has a ripple effect throughout your defense.”

    The idea stems from improvements made by offenses in terms of taking away edge pass-rush. Teams can always chip an edge rusher, assign double teams or slide protection one way or another, but a strong rusher from the inside is harder to take away. Almost always, at least one interior rusher will face a single blocker.

    “It’s much easier to negate an edge pass rusher than it is an inside dominant guy. You can force offenses to block them one-on-one,” Pettine said. “Offenses have gotten very good at negating edge rushers.”

    Pettine’s prioritization of the inside pass-rush was born out of years of working under Rex Ryan, who consistently used top draft picks on interior disruptors. The goal for any pass-rush is always to collapse the pocket around the quarterback, creating disrupted throwing lanes and throwing platforms. While edge rushers can turn the corner and disrupt quarterbacks, the quickest way to a collapsed pocket is right up the middle.

    “It’s something I learned from Rex a long time ago,” Pettine said. “You have to have guys winning inside. Even if you have great edge rushers, great speed rush, if the pocket’s not collapsed, it’s a clean pocket to step up into. It’s paramount that you have guys that can win inside.”
    Even if Gary plays really well, it's still hard to predict how many sacks he'll get for 2 reasons. First, we don't know how often he'll line up outside versus inside. Inside could be his best opportunities for sacks. Second, we don't know which rushers opponent blocking schemes will focus on stopping.

    My guess is the Packers will have somewhere between 45-50 sacks this year. They had 44 last year (8th overall). The league average last year was 40. The problem was that lack of consistent pressure resulted in the Packers defense being among the worst at opponent passer rating (27th), interceptions (30th), and TD passes given up (21st). If Gary helps the Packers have a more consistent and better pass rush, that will be manifested more in improving those negative numbers than it will in sack numbers which were already pretty good.
    I can't run no more
    With that lawless crowd
    While the killers in high places
    Say their prayers out loud
    But they've summoned, they've summoned up
    A thundercloud
    They're going to hear from me - Leonard Cohen

    Comment


    • #32
      Every pro Gary article I have read mentions how he impacts those around him, helping generate consistent pressure, which is exactly what Joe said directly above this.

      Stating that sacks determine a pass rushers effectiveness is like stating wins are a qb stat. Makes sense at first glance but easily proven wrong with a deeper look.

      In the end I think with the personal we have brought in it will be hard to measure Gary's impact immediately, due to heavy rotation and scheme. I think we should somehow try to extend Clark before the start of the season as the scheme will make him look all pro.
      All tyrannies rule through fraud and force, but once the fraud is exposed they must rely exclusively on force.

      George Orwell

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      • #33
        Originally posted by Patler View Post
        It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

        I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.
        I did not like the pick -- I thought he's a quintessential boom/bust, LA Raiders type pick -- but since he's a Packer I will cheer for him and hope for the best.
        That aside, I agree with this take. If he's a regular, contributing player on an improved defense, then he's doing his job. I don't expect him to set the world on fire as a rookie, and with the Smiths ahead of him he doesn't have to...which is probably a good thing, honestly. I think he'll take some time to learn the pro game and work on his pass rush.

        Another way to look at it is -- of all the R1 picks, which will get 10 sacks this year? Rookie or no, 10 sacks is a big number, and I doubt any Packer will get that this season. I think Harv's estimated numbers (several players with 5-7 sacks each) are more likely.

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        • #34
          how can gary be a questionable pick when EVERYONE projected him as a 1st round pick and most, if not all, projected him in the first half of the first round?

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by gbgary View Post
            how can gary be a questionable pick when EVERYONE projected him as a 1st round pick and most, if not all, projected him in the first half of the first round?
            He's questionable for those who don't like him. It's time to play wait and see.
            "Never, never ever support a punk like mraynrand. Rather be as I am and feel real sympathy for his sickness." - Woodbuck

            Comment


            • #36
              List of 22 players who had double-digit sacks in 2018, and how many they had as a rookie:

              Aaron Donald 9
              J.J. Watt 5.5
              Chris Jones 2
              Danielle Hunter 6
              Von Miller 11.5
              Myles Garrett 7
              T.J. Watt 7
              Dee Ford 1.5
              Chandler Jones 6
              Frank Clark 3
              Ryan Kerrigan 7.5
              Jason Pierre-Paul 4.5
              Khalil Mack 4
              DeForest Buckner 6
              Bradley Chubb 12
              Cameron Jordan 1
              Calais Campbell 0
              Demarcus Lawrence 0
              Jarran Reed 1.5
              Fletcher Cox 5.5
              Kyler Fackrell 2
              Geno Atkins 3

              So, of the top 22 sack men of 2018, 2 had double-digit sacks as rookies. 11 of them had fewer than 5.

              Bretsky, why were the Watt brothers were such slackers as rookies.
              I can't run no more
              With that lawless crowd
              While the killers in high places
              Say their prayers out loud
              But they've summoned, they've summoned up
              A thundercloud
              They're going to hear from me - Leonard Cohen

              Comment


              • #37
                Originally posted by Joemailman View Post
                List of 22 players who had double-digit sacks in 2018, and how many they had as a rookie:

                Aaron Donald 9
                J.J. Watt 5.5
                Chris Jones 2
                Danielle Hunter 6
                Von Miller 11.5
                Myles Garrett 7
                T.J. Watt 7
                Dee Ford 1.5
                Chandler Jones 6
                Frank Clark 3
                Ryan Kerrigan 7.5
                Jason Pierre-Paul 4.5
                Khalil Mack 4
                DeForest Buckner 6
                Bradley Chubb 12
                Cameron Jordan 1
                Calais Campbell 0
                Demarcus Lawrence 0
                Jarran Reed 1.5
                Fletcher Cox 5.5
                Kyler Fackrell 2
                Geno Atkins 3

                So, of the top 22 sack men of 2018, 2 had double-digit sacks as rookies. 11 of them had fewer than 5.

                Bretsky, why were the Watt brothers were such slackers as rookies.

                At PICK 30, TJ Watt had 7 sacks and he was very banged up and I think missed some time as rook.

                DAM TJ WATT would look GREAT in Green n Gold !! I didn't realize he had double digits last yr

                JJ Watt was a Defensive End, not an elite OLB Edge. I can't remember if he was banged up his first year though; I didn't follow Texas that closely
                TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

                Comment


                • #38
                  Originally posted by JustinHarrell View Post
                  You sound like a jaded troll, bretsky! Relax dude!
                  Truth be told I really want Gary to kill it; I'm just a bit bored in here lately.

                  I thrive on the tassles; lately it's been all fluff.

                  This is the one thing I can keep arguing on.....lol
                  TERD Buckley over Troy Vincent, Robert Ferguson over Chris Chambers, Kevn King instead of TJ Watt, and now, RICH GANNON, over JIMMY JIMMY JIMMY LEONARD. Thank you FLOWER

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Originally posted by Bretsky View Post
                    Truth be told I really want Gary to kill it; I'm just a bit bored in here lately.

                    I thrive on the tassles; lately it's been all fluff.

                    This is the one thing I can keep arguing on.....lol
                    Ya pissin me off, nigga
                    Formerly known as JustinHarrell.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      Originally posted by Patler View Post
                      It seems to me that a number of 'Rats are convinced Gary is a failed pick, so they have set a minimum standard for his rookie year that assures they will be right. A minimum of 10 sacks? Really? We should be disappointed if he gets 9? 8? 7?

                      I think he will be a successful pick if he is a regular rotation player on a much improved defense. If he is not a regular player in 2019, it won't mean he is a failed pick. That judgment can only come a couple years later, and it certainly won't be made just because he fails to get 10 sacks as a rookie.
                      Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

                      I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        Annual reminder that Aldon Smith loves booze more than money and fame. 😢

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by wthigoot View Post
                          Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

                          I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.
                          Agreed.

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            Originally posted by wthigoot View Post
                            Was not expecting Gary to be the pick but from reading up on him it sounds like he might be better as a run stopper early on. Maybe they use him on early downs and let the experienced rushers go on passing downs?

                            I would be very happy if he was the equivalent of a healthy Nick Perry.
                            hearing pettine yesterday it sounds like z. smith and gary will be rushing the passer 90+% of the time with the other smith doing the same but dropping into coverage more than the others.

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