2019 Other Games Thread

[call_me_ishmael]

I think I was the only one here loving Deshaun Watson before the draft. He is the truth. Honestly - ARod sort of closer to the middle of the pack than top tier these days. As a whole, I think QBs get better and better every few years. The early education and training is just so much better these days presumably. Probably a combination of film study, practice habits, etc. But it seems crazy to me that *most* QBs don't bust anymore and are typically capable of winning some games.

I don't fear for the Packers after ARod. In fact, I think there's a good chance that they'll be better and end up with a "better" quarterback for today's NFL.

Watson
Mahomes
Wentz
Goff to a lesser extent
Darnold looks darn promising

2013 - 2015 was horrible but outside of that, pretty darn good lads.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Watson makes alotta good plays but he seems prone to throwing in a few uncool plays here and there.

Threw 2 boneheaded picks into double coverage against Kansas City. The GNA I was sitting next to at the bar was like, “See, shit like this is why blacks shouldn’t play QB.” I was like, “Yo, Favre used to do shit like that, too!” GNA was like, “Favre’s a hillbilly; ain’t much differences between a country road hillbilly and a ghetto gangster - they’re all ignorant, uneducated, brainwashed, working-class egotists.” I was like, “Ironic, you’ve just defined GNA!”

Anyways, the more I watch Mahomes plays, which isn’t much coz I’m boycotting the NFL, the more he reminds me of a young Great Arm of Butte, moreso than a young Gunslinger.

[Joemailman]

I think I was the only one here loving Deshaun Watson before the draft. He is the truth. Honestly - ARod sort of closer to the middle of the pack than top tier these days. As a whole, I think QBs get better and better every few years. The early education and training is just so much better these days presumably. Probably a combination of film study, practice habits, etc. But it seems crazy to me that *most* QBs don't bust anymore and are typically capable of winning some games.

I don't fear for the Packers after ARod. In fact, I think there's a good chance that they'll be better and end up with a "better" quarterback for today's NFL.

Watson
Mahomes
Wentz
Goff to a lesser extent
Darnold looks darn promising

2013 - 2015 was horrible but outside of that, pretty darn good lads.

The Packers will have a huge decision to make if Rodgers doesn't start looking like an above average QB as the season goes on,and into next year. Hundley and Kizer have convinced a lot of people the Packers HAVE to make this work with Rodgers. I'm not so sure. I'm of the opinion that that Rodgers and McCarthy had devised an offense that only Rodgers could run effectively, so they had no chance when Rodgers was out. The McVay/Shanahan/Lafleur offense is very different though. It is much simpler for a QB to run with much less emphasis on the QB making last second adjustments. In fact, I suspect it was designed specifically so that you don't need a Rodgers or Brees or Brady to run it effectively. I don't believe now that if the Packers didn't have Rodgers, that we would see a repeat of the 1970's horror show.

Some will say that other than Adams, the Packers don't have the receivers you need. But there are a number of teams who are passing the ball better than the Packers who don't have one receiver as good as Adams, much less two. A QB who is making 30+ million needs to be better than the middle of the pack QB that Rodgers has been since his 2017 collarbone injury.

[call_me_ishmael]

I do wonder what has changed in the college game. So in the late 2000s and early 2010s we saw an awful lot of QB busts. It was often mentioned how the spread offense was just making things too easy for a QB in college and they didn't need to make all of the throws that they'd need to make in the NFL.

Now that the NFL is wide open and more about *quick/twitchy* players getting the ball in space - often via short to mid range routes - I wonder how much you really need to have the big time arm talent vs just being very accurate. Of course, Wentz and Mahomes have all-world arm talent so clearly it still plays a factor.

So what has changed in the past 5 years that the average QB that reaches the NFL in the first round is generally able to be effective?

Is it that the NFL looks more like college?

Is it a simplified scheme and simplified set of reads?

Is it that the defenses are simplifying?

Is it that everything that's interesting has already been recorded on tape and effectively schemed around?

Is it that they're just better players and more prepared skilled athletes from superior preparation from an early age?

Is the high school game changing to schemes that are closer to what the players would be playing in the big leagues?

Something somewhere seems to have changed to me.

[call_me_ishmael]

The Packers will have a huge decision to make if Rodgers doesn't start looking like an above average QB as the season goes on,and into next year. Hundley and Kizer have convinced a lot of people the Packers HAVE to make this work with Rodgers. I'm not so sure. I'm of the opinion that that Rodgers and McCarthy had devised an offense that only Rodgers could run effectively, so they had no chance when Rodgers was out. The McVay/Shanahan/Lafleur offense is very different though. It is much simpler for a QB to run with much less emphasis on the QB making last second adjustments. In fact, I suspect it was designed specifically so that you don't need a Rodgers or Brees or Brady to run it effectively. I don't believe now that if the Packers didn't have Rodgers, that we would see a repeat of the 1970's horror show.

Some will say that other than Adams, the Packers don't have the receivers you need. But there are a number of teams who are passing the ball better than the Packers who don't have one receiver as good as Adams, much less two. A QB who is making 30+ million needs to be better than the middle of the pack QB that Rodgers has been since his 2017 collarbone injury.

Great post Joe. I tend to agree with you and I am anxious to see the situation play out and get some clarity.

[pbmax]

The Packers will have a huge decision to make if Rodgers doesn't start looking like an above average QB as the season goes on,and into next year. Hundley and Kizer have convinced a lot of people the Packers HAVE to make this work with Rodgers. I'm not so sure. I'm of the opinion that that Rodgers and McCarthy had devised an offense that only Rodgers could run effectively, so they had no chance when Rodgers was out. The McVay/Shanahan/Lafleur offense is very different though. It is much simpler for a QB to run with much less emphasis on the QB making last second adjustments. In fact, I suspect it was designed specifically so that you don't need a Rodgers or Brees or Brady to run it effectively. I don't believe now that if the Packers didn't have Rodgers, that we would see a repeat of the 1970's horror show.

Some will say that other than Adams, the Packers don't have the receivers you need. But there are a number of teams who are passing the ball better than the Packers who don't have one receiver as good as Adams, much less two. A QB who is making 30+ million needs to be better than the middle of the pack QB that Rodgers has been since his 2017 collarbone injury.

Rodgers does have old QB disease, where he want a WR that will make adjustments with him and not be only beholden to his WR coach. But with dreck plus Aaron Jones (no Adams), he was pretty efficient last week. His fifth week in this system.

Packers pass offense ranks 9th in passing according to Football Outsiders. In a new system, with some talent deficiencies and remnants of poor form on short balls and a lack of touch on long balls, he is distinctly better than average. Not 2011, but pretty good. Almost as impressive as LaFleur and Rodgers seeming to come to some sort of agreement, is Rodgers getting himself straightened out on shorter throws and a new willingness to throw over the middle. He is not the easiest person to work with I suspect, but he is working to improve.

The QBs ahead of him are: Wilson, Mahomes, Prescott, Stafford, Bortles/Minishew, Brady, Garapollo, Wentz.

Wilson and Minishew are in run heavy systems where a pass is a stunner. Prescott is passing more this year with a new passing game coordinator, but as its been less of a surprise and they have played better teams, his level of success has dropped.

The others are first round picks except JimmyG, who was drafted in the 2nd (and traded for a second).

So unless you expect the Packers to spend the 1st or 2nd round pick on a QB, Rodgers will be back next year. Kizer is not going to make this work. Boyle maybe, but it'll take another year minimum before they are convinced.

[pbmax]

I do wonder what has changed in the college game. So in the late 2000s and early 2010s we saw an awful lot of QB busts. It was often mentioned how the spread offense was just making things too easy for a QB in college and they didn't need to make all of the throws that they'd need to make in the NFL.

Now that the NFL is wide open and more about *quick/twitchy* players getting the ball in space - often via short to mid range routes - I wonder how much you really need to have the big time arm talent vs just being very accurate. Of course, Wentz and Mahomes have all-world arm talent so clearly it still plays a factor.

So what has changed in the past 5 years that the average QB that reaches the NFL in the first round is generally able to be effective?

Is it that the NFL looks more like college?

.

I think NFL has moved toward college after a lot of NFL offense move to college after Bill Walsh. The WCO was a hard install for college under the best of circumstances. Also hard to find a statuesque QB to stand in and throw it.

There was already pressure to have an alternative (options) when the NCAA limited practice time and number of scholarships. Then the pressure was really on an offense you could install and fool the defense with in a short time frame.

NFL shortened the offseason about the same time as teams and there analytics were telling them that waiting for the next Elway was a losing proposition. You were playing a superior team strategy with a weak hand. So for various reasons (Kaepernick, RGIII and others) the idea of making the offense simpler for the O players started to catch on. High salaries for draft picks probably helped push people along (no one wants to wait while playing a premium for a QB to learn the offense for 2 years) ben though this pressure was lessened by the 2011 CBA.

Now that young QBs are cheaper, offenses that are ready for them to run are even more in demand.

[pbmax]

I suspect the Packers do something about the QB position in the draft. But unless its early, I don't think Rodgers is going anywhere for 2 additional years.

[mraynrand]

I suspect the Packers do something about the QB position in the draft. But unless its early, I don't think Rodgers is going anywhere for 2 additional years.

Even if it's early, he won't go right away. No matter what people try to tell me, these first year guys generally can't run NFL offenses all that well. Some of course can, but most don't. But $$$ says they play.

[Joemailman]

The others are first round picks except JimmyG, who was drafted in the 2nd (and traded for a second).

So unless you expect the Packers to spend the 1st or 2nd round pick on a QB, Rodgers will be back next year. Kizer is not going to make this work. Boyle maybe, but it'll take another year minimum before they are convinced.

Gutekunst worked under Wolf and Thompson. So I wouldn't be surprised at some point to see Gutekunst spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on a QB. I don't know enough about the 2020 QB class to say whether it's likely to be that early.

[pbmax]

For comparison's sake:

Aaron Schatz @FO_ASchatz
The struggling Patriots offense ranks 7th in DVOA after Week 6. Take out their best game, against Pittsburgh, and they would rank 19th. But Week 1 sure seems recent enough to me that it should still matter!

[texaspackerbacker]

Seriously? Talk of dumping Rodgers? How idiotic can you get?

The Packers O Line had one of their better games, but still, just about anybody other than Aaron Rodgers would have been hopeless. The Lions pass coverage was very decent, and our receivers were just ok to put if charitably. Our running game is a half step above ok now - why? Because of Aaron Rodgers and the threat of him making plays.

Lists of QBs who are better? Seriously? How dumb can you get? Those guys throw interceptions - and I don't mean the kind that bounce off a receiver's chest or face. Do some of you fools not comprehend how many games are lost by the team seemingly playing better, but throwing interceptions? The only QBs playing on the same level - maybe - with Rodgers right now are Mahomes and maybe Russell Wilson, and he didn't have a very good game this week. Stafford looked decent this game, but he has a long history of throwing it to the other team. All of those "grass is greener" guys mentioned have games where by skill or luck, they don't throw interceptions, but not consistently. And conveniently in this bunch of stupid "aging" comments about Rodgers, Tom Brady wasn't even mentioned hahahahaha. He still comes damn close to being as good as Rodgers, and he's how much older?

Somebody said maybe Rodgers will still be around for two more years? Like that's something special? Sheeeeeesh! I'd be damn surprised if he isn't playing and playing at a high level for another 4 or 5, and I wouldn't be shocked at all if he plays well into his forties.

[run pMc]

Aaron Rodgers turns 36 in about 6 weeks. Favre played until 41 and most think his Ironman record won't be broken. The rules changes help QB longevity, but with the injuries Rodgers has had I think he can play another 4-5 years at most. Really it's a matter of how well he can play by that time.
I could see them taking a QB late in the next draft and developing them slowly so that by the time Rodgers hits 38 the young guy has a grasp of the offense and can read a defense. If they can't find someone they like (there are some good QBs in the next draft) then they will have to probably draft with a higher pick in a subsequent draft. The alternatives are let Rodgers play out the string and hope they get lucky (which CHI has shown can take decades) or pull a Vikings and sign a high priced vet a la Cousins.

That Joe Burrow kid out of LSU is climbing the draft boards, for example, but I think he'll likely go R1 because QBs get overdrafted.

I will say that Rodgers is playing better -- in each of the last few games he's made a couple of wow throws, and I don't recall any of the WTF one-hop throws like he had last year...and this is despite playing with a washed up Graham, MVS, and a bunch of UDFAs.

[Gotarace]

I would be surprised to see the Packers burn a high draft choice on someone who will sit most of their Rookie Contract on the Pine...Isn't that how teams are rebuilding and stacking their roster playing the new kid at QB while his contract isn't that much of a blow to the Cap? The German Shepard has glaring holes to fill before worrying about Aarons replacement the next few years.

[mraynrand]

It all depends where they pick and who is there. If a franchise level guy drops to them you have to take em. Even a guy you think will be an above average stranger is worth the pick. You want to have that guy on the roster even if he doesn’t play for a year or two. And given injuries and age he will play sooner than later.

Just don’t break the draft bank on a guy....