To analytics or not to analytics, that is the question

[RashanGary]

Its 4th and 3 from the 50 yard line
You're about to go 3 and out after a forced fumble
You're up 13-6 with 5 minutes left in the forth quarter
It's a defensive struggle. Your offense can't seem to get going
10 of your 13 points were scored directly off turnovers
Their offense has 60 total yards in the second half
Your defense is shutting them out and has 2 turnovers in the second half
Your punter is en feugo, pin pointing bombs

Analytics says go for it. Its 80% more effective with down, distance and field position

[hoosier]

It's not a question of yes or no analytics, it's how to parse the numbers in context. The numbers can't account for things like bad weather, who is injured, what's working and what's not, and so on. If same time and down & distance but the score was 44-37 and nobody could stop anyone, obviously the decision would look a lot different. In your scenario, it's a no brainer to kick it away.

[hoosier]

Another consideration here is who you are as a team. If the defense is what gets things going, let them close it out. If you're the 2011 Packers there might be an argument for going for it--but in this situation I would still punt.

[Cheesehead Craig]

Its 4th and 3 from the 50 yard line
You're about to go 3 and out after a forced fumble
You're up 13-6 with 5 minutes left in the forth quarter
It's a defensive struggle. Your offense can't seem to get going
10 of your 13 points were scored directly off turnovers
Their offense has 60 total yards in the second half
Your defense is shutting them out and has 2 turnovers in the second half
Your punter is en feugo, pin pointing bombs

Analytics says go for it. Its 80% more effective with down, distance and field position

How is that 80% calculated?

[Zool]

Assuming all things are at average levels (health, weather, momentum, etc), at 4th and 3 from the 50 I would punt. 4th and 3 from the 40 I would go for it. In a 2 point lead scenerio, I punt in both situations.

[pbmax]

Assuming all things are at average levels (health, weather, momentum, etc), at 4th and 3 from the 50 I would punt. 4th and 3 from the 40 I would go for it. In a 2 point lead scenerio, I punt in both situations.

You are apparently living in too close a proximity too Zimmer

[mraynrand]

"'There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and analytics."

[RashanGary]

Analytics and stats open the eyes to reconsider things. But the value of the human mind and experience allows for so much more context. I do like analytics. I watch a lot of football. Guys like river boat Ron and Doug Peterson are the best at knowing when to go for it. And they’re the ones who have an analytics person giving them information during the game.

Both, however, say that they just use it for further consideration and don’t just blindly trust it.

I’m a fan but I think all over the interweb, things like pff player grades (which only account for a grade given by someone who doesn’t know the assignment of the player) (and also doesn’t account for the reality that said player may only be asked to do things he does well, which doesn’t factor in the reality that there are other players who can and do everything)

Like I said, stats open the eyes to look at something further, but experience and a capable human mind can get soooo much closer to understanding than any of these stats out there.

[texaspackerbacker]

Its 4th and 3 from the 50 yard line
You're about to go 3 and out after a forced fumble
You're up 13-6 with 5 minutes left in the forth quarter
It's a defensive struggle. Your offense can't seem to get going
10 of your 13 points were scored directly off turnovers
Their offense has 60 total yards in the second half
Your defense is shutting them out and has 2 turnovers in the second half
Your punter is en feugo, pin pointing bombs

Analytics says go for it. Its 80% more effective with down, distance and field position

Seriously? You're not just making this up? Analytics says go for it in that situation?

I've never followed analytics, but going for it then would be bonehead stupid IMO - and I say that as possibly the most optimistic person in here.

[pbmax]

I would love to know which calculator produced the 80% more effective number.

[Joemailman]

A factor would be the opposing QB. Not sure I'd want to kick it and give Tom Brady a shot to tie the game. I'd give Blake Bortles a shot.

[RashanGary]

A factor would be the opposing QB. Not sure I'd want to kick it and give Tom Brady a shot to tie the game. I'd give Blake Bortles a shot.

Absolutely! I’m sure there are countless other factors. Maybe the play before you lost your starting QB and both guards. Probably not in position to feel real confident about that 4th and 3 in front of you. But analytics says go!

Or maybe the opposing teams QB just went down. Is you analytics equation factoring that in?

So yeah, there are thousands of variables that cannot be accounted for with stats or analytics. Seems a lot of people are out there outsmarting themselves with over reliance on stats.

[RashanGary]

Not everyone is capable of having a feel for football. I’m sure analytics and stats do better than someone who’s never watched more than a quarter of football at a time.

But pretty much every head coach in the NFL is better than any stat or formula that will ever be created.

[mraynrand]

Not everyone is capable of having a feel for football. I’m sure analytics and stats do better than someone who’s never watched more than a quarter of football at a time.

But pretty much every head coach in the NFL is better than any stat or formula that will ever be created.

Not Barry Switzer or Richie Kotite!

[RashanGary]

Analytics are nice though. Sometimes the heat of the moment confuses or overwhelms even the best of us, and a analytics reminder may just open the mind to seeing how maybe you have gotten lost on the gravity of the moment.

I’m a fan of it in some sense. But the idea that we have to prove everything with a stat for it to be true.... it’s gone a bit far. Gruden said it well, he said, I don’t really care what Aaron Rodgers stats say. He’s not declining. He’s winning. Gruden went on to say, I don’t even know what half of those stats mean.

I’m capable of understanding them. But the more I understand, the more I see how limited and useless many of them are compared to my football knowledge and experience. The only thing they’ve ever done that helps me advabce my understanding of football is that stats have pushed me to look at new topics. But once I look, the old trusty noggan naturally factors thibgs in so the stat becomes less valuable there after.