To analytics or not to analytics, that is the question

[RashanGary]

Not Barry Switzer or Richie Kotite!

Mike Sherman might make that list too. That guy was dug in to some ridiculous coaching behaviors

[pbmax]

Not everyone is capable of having a feel for football. I’m sure analytics and stats do better than someone who’s never watched more than a quarter of football at a time.

But pretty much every head coach in the NFL is better than any stat or formula that will ever be created.

There have been WAY too many punts on 4th and short from their own side of the field for this statement to be true.

Coaches until recently were in love with gaining 20 yards of field position by punting in the other teams territory and then getting a touchback.

And lets not talk about late in the game down 3 scores and kicking a FG to be respectable.

[mraynrand]

“Computers make excellent and efficient servants, but I have no wish to serve under them.” - Spock.

[RashanGary]

Favre told a story once... he said he asked a young QB what type of coverage that was. The QB went on and on about every little detail. Favre said, “no, it’s cover 2”

Young dude was over complicating shit. There are only so many coverages a defense can run that cover both the run and pass. If it’s cover 2, it’s cover 2. From there, tvibk about your best guys and their worst guys and attack.

I played QB a few years ago in a pick up game. Our team was getting shredded. I have kids so I’ve developed a magical touch pass that even a 7 year old can catch. So I instantly made everyone better when I took over. Cuz I was throwing a touch, catachable ball to people who don’t catch very well. But I lined up, saw weakness and stengths and attacked. It was that simple. I didn’t try to out math or science anyone. I was playing football. I out footballed them.

That’s how it works.

[RashanGary]

There have been WAY too many punts on 4th and short from their own side of the field for this statement to be true.

Coaches until recently were in love with gaining 20 yards of field position by punting in the other teams territory and then getting a touchback.

And lets not talk about late in the game down 3 scores and kicking a FG to be respectable.

Absolutely. It has helped coaches see some weak spots for sure. But it can go too far the other way as well.

[pbmax]

Absolutely. It has helped coaches see some weak spots for sure. But it can go too far the other way as well.

Everything can go too far. Unusually its pig-headedness, appeals to authority and stupidity leading the way though.

[RashanGary]

Peterson and riverboat Ron do a great job. They have analytics guys giving them info on every 4th down. I think it helps them remember not to fall into ruts. But both guys insist that they don’t even come close to following it blindly. It’s just one more piece of information they factor in.

When I watch their games, I’m impressed with their decision making. It’s impressive how effective both guys are at 4th down decision making.

[RashanGary]

Everything can go too far. Unusually its pig-headedness, appeals to authority and stupidity leading the way though.

I won’t argue with ya too far on this...

But what do you mean by “Appeals to authority??”

[RashanGary]

Because football is such a practical endeavor (blocking, tackling, running, catching, etc) I do think there is a certain personality type that tends to prevail. People who understand space and leverage and enjoy physical exertion tend to play football well. Hence, you will certainly find some over reliance on those practical qualities. In which case, analytics help to open the mind to getting out of ruts.

However, if you picture Sheldon from Big Bang theory trying to beat Brett Favre at the game of football, you can see why one mindset seems to be more effective than the other in accomplishing a physical feat using only ones body.

If the rules changed and you could use machinery, Sheldon would have a better chance using his science.

[texaspackerbacker]

A factor would be the opposing QB. Not sure I'd want to kick it and give Tom Brady a shot to tie the game. I'd give Blake Bortles a shot.

You should have said Aaron Rodgers in your example instead of Brady hahahahaha.

The answer to that factor is that there is five minutes left in the scenario. Let 'em get the ball at mid field and maybe tie the game. Then we come back and win it with a walk-off FG.

[pbmax]

I won’t argue with ya too far on this...

But what do you mean by “Appeals to authority??”

A claim that we do this because important or notable people have done it this way or approve. It’s an assertion that you are supposed to accept because other supposedly authoritative people accept it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

In sports, often takes the form of doing things by the book. But no one has written the book or checked its results.

One good thing about the public move toward analytics is that much of it is public and can be disputed openly.

[pbmax]

Bryn Swartz
John Elway literally traded for Joe Flacco. He watched him play football over the previous 11 seasons and said that this is a player he is interested in shipping out assets for.

Captain Comeback
Theory: Elway doesn't care for QB stats since people have used them to diminish his own career. So he'll highlight things like wins, SB MVPs, playoff moments (Rahim Moore blindspot) & physical traits like arm strength. Thus he values Flacco more than any studious analyst would.

[pbmax]

Joe Flacco is the answer to a lot of these questions.

He has everything a scout is looking for in a QB. He is very tall. He has a live arm and can throw deep and with touch short.

He stands in the pocket and takes hits.

But he sucks because he cannot find open receivers down the field unless coverage is broken.

But these old school scouts ARE using numbers to judge him. Height, velocity, completion percentage. Unfortunately those numbers are TERRIBLE predictors of success.

And so this wet blanket of a talent is wasting years when shorter, less rocket armed QBs could be winning games for them.

Keep this in mind next time some dope reporting on Packers drafting reminds you of their height requirement.

[run pMc]

Its 4th and 3 from the 50 yard line
You're about to go 3 and out after a forced fumble
You're up 13-6 with 5 minutes left in the forth quarter
It's a defensive struggle. Your offense can't seem to get going
10 of your 13 points were scored directly off turnovers
Their offense has 60 total yards in the second half
Your defense is shutting them out and has 2 turnovers in the second half
Your punter is en feugo, pin pointing bombs

Analytics says go for it. Its 80% more effective with down, distance and field position

You're at midfield with a chance to pin the other team's thus-far ineffective offense inside the 20 (or with good ST's the 5-10).
It's a close game but neither team can move the ball and you have the lead, so the clock is essentially your enemy.

I say you tell your punter to pooch it and trust your D to stop them from driving the length of the field.

(I would assume if Brady/Brees/Mahomes was playing they'd either have more than 6 points, or your D has about 12 sacks and 2 shutdown CBs.)

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Mike Sherman might make that list too. That guy was dug in to some ridiculous coaching behaviors

4th and 1. Black Batman (the great Ahman Green) was making hay all day. A fucking yard. The math said go for the kill. Sherman punted. 4th and 26.

Suffice it to say, Sherman was a better GM than coach. 44-20 as GM. Never missed the playoffs. Poor man's Belichick.