To analytics or not to analytics, that is the question

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Analytics are nice though. Sometimes the heat of the moment confuses or overwhelms even the best of us, and a analytics reminder may just open the mind to seeing how maybe you have gotten lost on the gravity of the moment.

I’m a fan of it in some sense. But the idea that we have to prove everything with a stat for it to be true.... it’s gone a bit far. Gruden said it well, he said, I don’t really care what Aaron Rodgers stats say. He’s not declining. He’s winning. Gruden went on to say, I don’t even know what half of those stats mean.

I’m capable of understanding them. But the more I understand, the more I see how limited and useless many of them are compared to my football knowledge and experience. The only thing they’ve ever done that helps me advabce my understanding of football is that stats have pushed me to look at new topics. But once I look, the old trusty noggan naturally factors thibgs in so the stat becomes less valuable there after.

Stats are certainly important to the shark (smart) gambler.

Punting on 4th and 1 or 3 when the math says go for it is being conservative. Conservatism achieves little in life and in football.

Alverez never won a National Title b/c he coached conservatively. Everyone and their baby's mamas can hand the rock off to Ron Dayne. Why not put Sorgi in at QB instead of that abomination Bollinger? When the Ohio State University plays the Pistol Force and is shutting down Dayne, watch Sorgi drops bombs to Chambers.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Btw, Seattle, 2015. Super Bowl on the line. Capers' D was picking off Lil Russell like virgins picking off chicks in a brothel.

The math said be as liberal as the Prodigal Son. Go for it! FGs ain't gonna win the game. Lo and behold, McCarthy ran 3 straight plays out of the fucking GOALLINE formation at MIDFIELD, and then punted.

Game should've been over at halftime. But fuck, McCarthy coached even more conservatively that day than Alverez ever did at any point in spacetime.

[pbmax]

4th and 1. Black Batman (the great Ahman Green) was making hay all day. A fucking yard. The math said go for the kill. Sherman punted. 4th and 26.

Suffice it to say, Sherman was a better GM than coach. 44-20 as GM. Never missed the playoffs. Poor man's Belichick.

You cook the hamburgers in the fryer, don't you?

[Zool]

4th and 1. Black Batman (the great Ahman Green) was making hay all day. A fucking yard. The math said go for the kill. Sherman punted. 4th and 26.

Suffice it to say, Sherman was a better GM than coach. 44-20 as GM. Never missed the playoffs. Poor man's Belichick.

Which of his FA signings or non-punter draft picks was your favorite?

[bobblehead]

Its 4th and 3 from the 50 yard line
You're about to go 3 and out after a forced fumble
You're up 13-6 with 5 minutes left in the forth quarter
It's a defensive struggle. Your offense can't seem to get going
10 of your 13 points were scored directly off turnovers
Their offense has 60 total yards in the second half
Your defense is shutting them out and has 2 turnovers in the second half
Your punter is en feugo, pin pointing bombs

Analytics says go for it. Its 80% more effective with down, distance and field position

Can analytics factor in the emotional drain of failing and then giving up points within minutes? Your leading and you can force a team to go the field when you have a lead already. Analytics be damned. They also say pass every down cuz numbers (derived from passing when you have been running effectively) say passing is better than running. What they don't account for is that a team playing pass every down is likely to kill your QB.

[pbmax]

Can analytics factor in the emotional drain of failing and then giving up points within minutes? Your leading and you can force a team to go the field when you have a lead already. Analytics be damned. They also say pass every down cuz numbers (derived from passing when you have been running effectively) say passing is better than running. What they don't account for is that a team playing pass every down is likely to kill your QB.

Talking heads love this point.

Here is how you do it, Belichick style:

"We wanted to put the team in the best position to win. We understand that punting/FG was the best option for us at that time. We talk about this to the players and they understand what we are doing and why. We try to not make decisions based on emotions in the moment, but what history has taught us about the most effective way to win the game."

Everyone loves putting second order effects in front of the idea of scoring more points. It's insane. The same logic leaves you kicking a FG down 21 points with 3 minutes left.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Which of his FA signings or non-punter draft picks was your favorite?

Sherman free agent signee, C-Jenks77, was instrumental in rushing QBs from the interior during that notorious SB 45-winning season. Trading a 2 for Alphonso Harris was the deed of a genius, not the mother of incompetence. AK-74, a Sherman draft pick, was JJ Watt before anyone had ever heard of Watt. Barnett was the greatest white MLB to don the Green and Gold since Nitschke. Go J-Walk!

Give Sherman how many fucking years Todd had hibernating, and give Sherman Todd's TV bailout cap money, and Pack woulda/coulda won more than a fluke SB, no doubt.

[Anti-Polar Bear]

Can analytics factor in the emotional drain of failing and then giving up points within minutes? Your leading and you can force a team to go the field when you have a lead already. Analytics be damned. They also say pass every down cuz numbers (derived from passing when you have been running effectively) say passing is better than running. What they don't account for is that a team playing pass every down is likely to kill your QB.

Spokenth like a true conservative.

Btw, those guys are pros. The fuck with emotions. Do your fucking job.

[pbmax]

Sherman free agent signee, C-Jenks77, was instrumental in rushing QBs from the interior during that notorious SB 45-winning season. Trading a 2 for Alphonso Harris was the deed of a genius, not the mother of incompetence. AK-74, a Sherman draft pick, was JJ Watt before anyone had ever heard of Watt. Barnett was the greatest white MLB to don the Green and Gold since Nitschke. Go J-Walk!

Give Sherman how many fucking years Todd had hibernating, and give Sherman Todd's TV bailout cap money, and Pack woulda/coulda won more than a fluke SB, no doubt.

4 years, 3 good signings. Impressive.

I remember that AK rookie season when he was so dominant he started six games.

[Zool]

Sherman free agent signee, C-Jenks77, was instrumental in rushing QBs from the interior during that notorious SB 45-winning season. Trading a 2 for Alphonso Harris was the deed of a genius, not the mother of incompetence. AK-74, a Sherman draft pick, was JJ Watt before anyone had ever heard of Watt. Barnett was the greatest white MLB to don the Green and Gold since Nitschke. Go J-Walk!

Give Sherman how many fucking years Todd had hibernating, and give Sherman Todd's TV bailout cap money, and Pack woulda/coulda won more than a fluke SB, no doubt.

I definitely doubt. He had a top QB, oline, and RB for years and did nothing.

[mraynrand]

4 years, 3 good signings. Impressive.

I remember that AK rookie season when he was so dominant he started six games.

Let me crunch some numbers here. Sherman FA signings were 1/3 successful - that’s 33.33 (repeating of course) successful.

[Zool]

PSL had one highlight in his entire coattail riding career as a head coach.

https://thewizardofodds.blogspot.com...ure-aggie.html

[pbmax]

I do admire how Tank sticks to the script when it would be vastly easier to sell Sherman's coaching rather than his GM.

[texaspackerbacker]

52 wins and 28 losses as a coach says Sherman was doing something right and is wrongfully disrespected by a lot of people. As for his performance as a GM, I'm not gonna claim he was all that excellent a decision maker either on draft picks or free agents. What I always liked about him, though, was the way he handled the salary cap - getting about as close to the edge as he possibly could. The opposite of that was Ted Thompson being ultra-careful and not maximizing things. Between Sherman and Thompson, I absolutely will take Sherman.

[pbmax]

52 wins and 28 losses as a coach says Sherman was doing something right and is wrongfully disrespected by a lot of people. As for his performance as a GM, I'm not gonna claim he was all that excellent a decision maker either on draft picks or free agents. What I always liked about him, though, was the way he handled the salary cap - getting about as close to the edge as he possibly could. The opposite of that was Ted Thompson being ultra-careful and not maximizing things. Between Sherman and Thompson, I absolutely will take Sherman.

I think almost all would agree he was a good to very good coach who got a LOT of mileage out of an offense that lacked top flight receivers. He made some fantastic scheme choices and got Favre to buy in.

His work as GM was short sighted like almost all other coaches given that job mid tenure.