Official Chargers Week Thread

[RashanGary]

PB,

I’ll give your stats credit there. That’s a who’s who of the best teams that lean upper right. It’s essentially the same thing i do using my old ginstincts (gut/instincts).

I check injury report. Note who’s out and who the replacement are. Watch game. I grade run and pass based on my professional opinion and naturally know to take out garbage time and natural give no credit to a 10 yard gain in 3rd and 20 unless it’s setting up the field goal, in which case, it weighs in appropriately.

I jot down little notes in my excel sheet and wam bam, thank ya ma’am, i have my bobs ginstinct advanced team rankings and super special gamblers advantage.

But, I will admit, in absence of my one of a kind injury/coaching/situation all inclusive ginstinct pro gamblers advantage, those boring analytics are a poor mans version.

[RashanGary]

PB,

I read the expected points explaination by Burke to the best of my incredibly short attention span. I didn’t notice that the analytic accounts for strength of opponent.

My extra special ginstinct analysis does account and adjust for injuries and strength of opponent.

Which of your analytics help you there??

[pbmax]

Strength of Opponent: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

You want to watch DVOA (defense adjusted Value Over Average). Its weighted by opponent starting in Week 4 or 6 (don't remember).

I don't know of any regular rankings that take special account of injuries.

[RashanGary]

My little notes system accounts for how a team regressed after an injury so when said player comes back, I’m ahead of the curve.

I don’t win all of my bets, but I’m a winning sports better because I factor in the things that these analytics systems can’t account for. Not everyone can do what I do because I’ve loved and watched football since I was 6 years old. I was the 8 year old kid that could call out every penalty. I’ve heard every piece of old football wisdom and put it to the test and then kept some and left others. It keeps evolving as things change. I’m constantly looking to change my views to adapt to the now. So 30 years of football plus the time I have to watch games now and my ability to weigh in injury and notice trends that point to future not line it up with past....


Things like that give me an advantage over the numbers and analytics guys. It’s why I win and people who spend a lot of money on Brian Burke lose.

[RashanGary]

Strength of Opponent: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019

You want to watch DVOA (defense adjusted Value Over Average). Its weighted by opponent starting in Week 4 or 6 (don't remember).

I don't know of any regular rankings that take special account of injuries.

If I was going to use those two grades, I’d want to see them on a line graph so I could visually see which way the team was trending. I would like text added to show when key injuries happened. If you can visualize it, at week 5 on dallas’s graph, I’d like text to show the OL injuries. That way my mind could quickly make sense of the dip in offensive production and would give me a better idea of future expectation than cumulative analytics data.

I like it. But I want it presented differently so it can account for some other things.

I might come up with a way of presenting my this type of data that allows for quick processing of future expectation.

[RashanGary]

I could definitely use those two stats if they were presented on a graph for each team, over time so I could see trends. Like i said, I’d place injury notes on the chart and then place other little odds and ends notes. When I go to make a betting decision I could look at each teams notated line chart so the overwhelming amount of information would be easier to process and possible mistakes I’m overlooking could be minimized.

It’s good stuff if used correctly. Honestly, I highly doubt very many people know how to use them correctly because most people who use those cumulative analytics miss some trends that are able to be predicted and don’t line up with past grades. Injuries and trending improvements don’t get weighed in so I’d want to have flags on the graph to make it easily processed.

[MadtownPacker]

Damn, just realized RashanGary is an insane or Bizarro version of PBMax.

[Zool]

So who's Solomon Grundy? Red probably.

[RashanGary]

Pb, let’s come up with a way to take those two analytics, punch them into excel week by week, have a trusty line chart come up, then add notes for injury.... then run it by a few trusty packer rats who quit our jobs and just watch every football game. Then we can be dominant winning sports betters and never have to work again.

Me, you, mraynrand and maybe ky cuz he’s got an old timer perspective we need. My 17 year old son too cuz he’s got a new comer perspective that always seems to open my eyes to new things and helps me win.

We’d have little Saturday FaceTime meetings and then boom. Winning!!! Or we could all move to Nevada and have a big ranch and have our meetings in person. Plus whores are legal so our winnings could be best spent on some clean, youthful puss-gina.

[RashanGary]

Each guy could have two divisions to cover injuries and present a short write up of each team going into the week. We could bounce ideas around on Monday’s, Wednesday’s and Saturday’s and then make most our bets on Sunday’s after the inactive list comes out.

Present that information the right way, accounting for trends over time and flagging injuries, then add in an in depth overview of the teams approach to the week (at which point all voices can chime in). Then when the inactive lists come out, boom, we’re all ready for our bets. This can not possibly fail. What are we waiting for!? Clean youthful puss-gina is awaiting us all. Why wait for heaven for the virgins when you can slay them now.

[RashanGary]

We’d be so good, it would be like AR throwing no lookers or purposely waiting till the last moment to find his guy just to flaunt his dominance. This is our chance. Nerds, psychos and socially retarded ass holes unite! Hookers and blow! Hookers and blow! AHHHHHHHHH!!!! Let’s go!! Hookers and fucking blow, guys!!!!

[Fritz]

Each guy could have two divisions to cover injuries and present a short write up of each team going into the week. We could bounce ideas around on Monday’s, Wednesday’s and Saturday’s and then make most our bets on Sunday’s after the inactive list comes out.

Present that information the right way, accounting for trends over time and flagging injuries, then add in an in depth overview of the teams approach to the week (at which point all voices can chime in). Then when the inactive lists come out, boom, we’re all ready for our bets. This can not possibly fail. What are we waiting for!? Clean youthful puss-gina is awaiting us all. Why wait for heaven for the virgins when you can slay them now.

You won't get rich off this idea until you write a book and start a website offering prospective bettors the "inside scoop" on your "new, guaranteed system," which consumers can have for the incredible price of only $9.99/month.

[RashanGary]

I will only participate if ky is the leader. He’s got a lot of wisdom and speaks in colorful slang that reminds you that he’s been there and done that and isn’t going to take any shit from any of us whipper snappers. I’m 5’10 and 200 pounds of healthy explosive psychotic athlete but I feel ky would still whip my ass, easy.

[RashanGary]

You won't get rich off this idea until you write a book and start a website offering prospective bettors the "inside scoop" on your "new, guaranteed system," which consumers can have for the incredible price of only $9.99/month.

Vegas will not allow anyone to win consistently. Hence such systems are taken down by one corrupt official. We don’t know which one it is, but Vegas strategically insures he’s in position to call holding at the most inopportune times to take down the systems that evolve. So we have to keep it secret and just win in our small group to stay under their radar.

[gbgary]

they'd better be careful here and not be looking at the standings. rivers can still slice and dice, and gordon can gash, a defense. our O has gotten much better from early on but the D has regressed. they've gone soft, bend don't break. they're giving up yards and points at a much higher rate. the sacks and takeaways have dropped as a result. i think it'll take 30+ to beat the chargers. one thing in the Packers favor...it should sound like a home game with the vast majority of fans being Packers fans.