Read This, Be Smarter: First Down Better Than Third Down

[pbmax]

Moo @PFF_Moo

I've posted this chart before: 3rd down. 3rd & manageable doesn't exist. If your goal is to get to 3rd&short, you have already messed up (unless you can intentionally get to 3rd&1...which is unlikely). Even 3rd&2 is a worse situation than you started at 2 plays ago.

[pbmax]

Brian Burke agrees: https://t.co/XBk81180Cu?amp=1

Here is Monson's entire thread: https://twitter.com/PFF_Moo/status/1197297272788340737

[run pMc]

This partly explains the whole thing I read last year about how McVay's offense and playcalling is intended to avoid 3rd down altogether.

I'd rather have 1st & 10 than 3rd&1 or 2, for sure...but I don't think it's a death knell for an offense either. Honestly I think an offense should convert 3rd&2 a high percentage of the time just by calling the "DickRod dumpoff" to the flat.

Also, I think if you have a penalty or negative play on 1st down, you're more likely to convert if you at least try to make the distance easier, i.e., go from 1st&20 to 2&12 vs. just taking deep shots. We saw that offense plenty as M3 was getting fired.
I imagine there are other exceptions. I also think sometimes you just go for it on 4th down if you don't convert on 3rd down.

[pbmax]

This partly explains the whole thing I read last year about how McVay's offense and playcalling is intended to avoid 3rd down altogether.

I'd rather have 1st & 10 than 3rd&1 or 2, for sure...but I don't think it's a death knell for an offense either. Honestly I think an offense should convert 3rd&2 a high percentage of the time just by calling the "DickRod dumpoff" to the flat.

Also, I think if you have a penalty or negative play on 1st down, you're more likely to convert if you at least try to make the distance easier, i.e., go from 1st&20 to 2&12 vs. just taking deep shots. We saw that offense plenty as M3 was getting fired.
I imagine there are other exceptions. I also think sometimes you just go for it on 4th down if you don't convert on 3rd down.

Its basically an argument to lean toward plays that can break open. You aren't going to get too many first downs if you drop back and throw it for 20 air yards every first down, but you can try to get the medium routes featured.