2020 Wide Receivers

[RashanGary]

And maybe the most important reason to run well. Every year there are one or two pass defenses that can shut down just about any pass offense. You usually see them in the playoffs. If you don't run well and you run into them in the playoffs, your season is likely over.

Run the ball well! Win!

[Bretsky]

What I would like is a rebuttal; an argument backed up with some evidence, not a simple assertion that time of possession favors running and winning.

and if it doesn't exist ?

[pbmax]

and if it doesn't exist ?

Then I expect blame

As Bobble and others have pointed out, there are times that it makes sense to run. It makes sense to be good at it so that your situational football is in good shape. It helps you to constrain the defense from wildly tilting toward defending only the pass. Can help you in short yardage and goaline.

I have mentioned another (winning late). A different one entirely would be a severe underdog strategy, where a team undermanned in skill position players plays a superior team. A running attack does a lot to even the matchup for the underdog if you can indeed run and play successful D. See the 1985 Wild Card Cleveland Browns for a fantastic example.

But absent a severe talent problem, running the ball is not on the same level of priority as scoring points and slowing down the opponent's scoring. Its a tactic to help achieve that, not a strategy unto itself.

So schematically and tactically, it makes sense to be prepared to run the ball well. It makes sense to prepare yourself by actually running the ball.

It makes sense to scheme the run game to work out of your pass sets to further confuse the defense, or if not confuse, not concede to them a pre-snap read.

But it doesn't follow any of that that you SHOULD run on first down. Not does it follow that you should have balance in play calling near 50%. You do need to be situationally competent.

[pbmax]

Advantages of running the ball well
(and I don't care to prove it or intellectualize a physical sport)

Offensive lineman like to run block (improved moral, empowerment and ownership)
Defenses can't t off on the QB opening up the pass game
Time off the clock takes away the other teams offensive opportunities
More 2nd and 5 or 2nd and 4 opportunities (better defenses to take shots against)
Defenders get tired trying to beat a lot of run blocks
QB sees more favorable pass looks


Anyone has every right to disagree. But I will gladly disagree right back. Wins are more important than efficiency in my mind. Period.

Wins are more important that efficiency. But your "Period" doesn't do the work of how running more is leading to more winning.

1. Offensive lineman like to talk about run blocking at two times: when they aren't doing it and when they are successful at it. I have yet to hear an offensive lineman say we should run more after getting their ass handed to them. Offensive lineman like success just like those glory boy WR. Its everyone's goal to win one on one matchups and coaches talk it up. Doesn't mean its a good strategy for the team. You don't throw deep every other play just because your star WR likes those routes.

2. True, but running teams still throw on 3rd down and medium to long, so the defense knowing what is coming doesn't stop situational demands. If your first consideration in designing and calling your offense is what you are allowing the defense to do, you have lost the tactical battle. That happens sometimes. But it shouldn't be built in to the design of the offense or your play sheet.

3. Its a good point, but as mentioned in the earlier post, you need to have a lead to make this pay off.

4. Packers did not average that on first down last year. If you tend to run on first down, you are going to be closer to 2nd and 6 on average than 2nd and 4. Missing a throw does put you in a 2nd and 10 hole, but so does running for 2 yards. Passing makes it possible to convert those more unfavorable down and distance. There is also a tendency to remember incomplete throws but not runs for 0 or 1 yards.

5. Defenders get tired playing football. So does the offense. There was a piece this spring arguing how offenses slow down just as much as D and whatever the differential, the score doesn't reflect the defense slowly surrendering big plays and points.

6. Favorable down and distance help the run and pass game equally. The question should be what most helps the offense get the necessary yards.

[RashanGary]

There is a balance between the two, for sure pb. I guess I'm with ya that passing is more important if you had to be good at one or the other.

Most teams forget to run A little more often. I think it's easy for play callers and QBs to want to pass.


In the playoffs, you often times run into truly dominant pass defenses and also truly dominant run defenses. Sometimes a team that's both. It's real easy to get knocked off in the tourney if you cant run well. You see pass rushers like Bosa, Ford, Armstead and buckner.... All on the same team. It's times like these you wished you had learned to run back then. It's times like these you don't live to play again. It's times like these, time and time again.

But yeah, I'm with ya on passing being more important, but I think there is a real pay off, in the playoffs, for being a really good running team too.

You can be the most efficient offense in NFL history (2011 patriots) and then lose cuz you run into osi, tuck and Pierre Paul on the same team. It's only one loss in the regular season. But it's the end of the season in the playoffs. So that's why I'm a big believer in getting that run game down during the season. It's too late by the time you really need it if you don't.

[RashanGary]

And if you're a really good run team, you see a lot of 2nd and 4’s. That's a really good down for big plays. If AR Is under center of a great run team, he will shine. It's not 2011 and him escaping, but if he sees the right defenses, he’ll cut their throats. I have no doubts about that.

[RashanGary]

So, I do hope we run a lot and really well. If we run often and well, I think we’ll be one of the top passing offenses in the league. If we run rarely and just ok, I don't think we have the Jennings, Nelson, Driver, Jones, Finley or Cobb type fire power to just line up and succeed that way.

[Fritz]

Wins are more important that efficiency. But your "Period" doesn't do the work of how running more is leading to more winning.

1. Offensive lineman like to talk about run blocking at two times: when they aren't doing it and when they are successful at it. I have yet to hear an offensive lineman say we should run more after getting their ass handed to them. Offensive lineman like success just like those glory boy WR. Its everyone's goal to win one on one matchups and coaches talk it up. Doesn't mean its a good strategy for the team. You don't throw deep every other play just because your star WR likes those routes.

2. True, but running teams still throw on 3rd down and medium to long, so the defense knowing what is coming doesn't stop situational demands. If your first consideration in designing and calling your offense is what you are allowing the defense to do, you have lost the tactical battle. That happens sometimes. But it shouldn't be built in to the design of the offense or your play sheet.

3. Its a good point, but as mentioned in the earlier post, you need to have a lead to make this pay off.

4. Packers did not average that on first down last year. If you tend to run on first down, you are going to be closer to 2nd and 6 on average than 2nd and 4. Missing a throw does put you in a 2nd and 10 hole, but so does running for 2 yards. Passing makes it possible to convert those more unfavorable down and distance. There is also a tendency to remember incomplete throws but not runs for 0 or 1 yards.

5. Defenders get tired playing football. So does the offense. There was a piece this spring arguing how offenses slow down just as much as D and whatever the differential, the score doesn't reflect the defense slowly surrendering big plays and points.

6. Favorable down and distance help the run and pass game equally. The question should be what most helps the offense get the necessary yards.

To your point #4, it would seem then that the most important running statistic would be yards per carry. If you can average over four, you can make running on first or second down feasible options.

That makes Aaron Jones much more important. He gives you more second-and-sixes or third-and-sixes (if the team passed incomplete on first down) than Jamaal Williams, who gives second-and-sevens (or eights).

[pbmax]

To your point #4, it would seem then that the most important running statistic would be yards per carry. If you can average over four, you can make running on first or second down feasible options.

That makes Aaron Jones much more important. He gives you more second-and-sixes or third-and-sixes (if the team passed incomplete on first down) than Jamaal Williams, who gives second-and-sevens (or eights).

Average per carry is important, because its usually a good measure of better backs. Its not fool proof and backs can only do so much. But as a pure runner, get me the maximum yards, ypc isn't a bad measure. It tells you Jones is a better runner than Williams, even if Williams has other skills.

But to decide to run on first down at a higher than League average, you either have to outperform the D, hard if they are expecting run (and I don't think the Packers are that great at run blocking) OR you have to really believe in the 2nd down run/pass option you are going to setup to call.

Everyone is expecting more run out of La Fleur with Dillon and Daguerrotype, but I expect more passing out of this offense. Especially passing that is not out of 11 personnel running Rodgers offense. Not because La Fleur is fed up or Rodgers is declining, but because they aren't built for it anymore at WR.

[texaspackerbacker]

I wonder if they've decided or even penciled in who is supposed to play fullback.

Yards per carry if they reflect consistency are important, but say for example, a guy gets a 71 yard TD run then 6 runs of 1 yard each ...... wow, he's averaging 11 yards a carry.

What are the odds greater of? two 2 yard runs and a failed run or pass on 3rd and 6? Or Aaron Rodgers missing passes for first down on 3 consecutive plays - even if the other team knows it's coming? I'll take the pass first and run only as a rare change of pace or extremely short yardage.

[bobblehead]

I could call an offense that scores 30 if you give me 8 yards per carry.

I'd rather call the offense that TAKES 8 yards per carry.

[bobblehead]

One of the most overrated statistics in football.

If your point held, running teams would win more. But they don't. Passing is much more efficient.

Most of the argumentative noise about running the football is that teams with a lead in the second half want to burn clock to shorten the game. So they run more late in the game.

If you want to see a classic example of how coaches (and the press) mistake cause for effect, just rewatch the 2014 NFC Championship game. Then listen to McCarthy explain that he wanted to get to 20 runs in the second half.

You are right and wrong. TOP isn't a panacea. Its an effect of getting first downs. Get more of them, hold the ball longer. Running effectively is a cause of getting more first downs, but if the D is gearing up to stop it you take what the are not defending and get a first down.

If you can't run effectively you won't throw effectively...and vice versa. Its why you are right that "running" teams don't really win either. Most "run first" offenses are doing so BECAUSE they can't pass for shit. If you have a good balanced offense (by ability) you will end up passing around 60%. Just the nature of the beast.

[RashanGary]

You are right and wrong. TOP isn't a panacea. Its an effect of getting first downs. Get more of them, hold the ball longer. Running effectively is a cause of getting more first downs, but if the D is gearing up to stop it you take what the are not defending and get a first down.

If you can't run effectively you won't throw effectively...and vice versa. Its why you are right that "running" teams don't really win either. Most "run first" offenses are doing so BECAUSE they can't pass for shit. If you have a good balanced offense (by ability) you will end up passing around 60%. Just the nature of the beast.

Well said. A balanced offense (by ability) will fall about 60% pass in a lot of situations. Especially with AR at QB.

I’d like close to 50/50 on first down. It’s only feasible if you’re a really good running team, but I see AR getting some huge passing plays if the offense can run the ball well on first down and often. Often is the only way to make defenses commit to defending it or at least slow down their pursuit as pass rushers and slow down their aggression in pass coverage.

Young AR was kind of a cheat code in that he was a run game in how defenses had to defend him. The Jennings, Nelson, Finley, Jones, Driver, Cobb era made for an all time prolific offense.

There are other ways to build prolific offenses and a 36 year old AR (and aging), this new way makes a lot of sense.

[Bretsky]

Well said. A balanced offense (by ability) will fall about 60% pass in a lot of situations. Especially with AR at QB.

I’d like close to 50/50 on first down. It’s only feasible if you’re a really good running team, but I see AR getting some huge passing plays if the offense can run the ball well on first down and often. Often is the only way to make defenses commit to defending it or at least slow down their pursuit as pass rushers and slow down their aggression in pass coverage.

Young AR was kind of a cheat code in that he was a run game in how defenses had to defend him. The Jennings, Nelson, Finley, Jones, Driver, Cobb era made for an all time prolific offense.

There are other ways to build prolific offenses and a 36 year old AR (and aging), this new way makes a lot of sense.

Completely agree

Calling a spade a spade here. We have to expect AROD's skill set to start going down at least a bit. So two solutions

Loan him up with weapons or blow up your running attack.

If I'm being kind, at WR we our combo of WR/TE talent is in the bottom 25% of the NFL. Maybe worse.

But we have a star in Aaron Jones. And we drafted a RB high as well who seems pretty dam talented. So we're going to need to become a running team IMO

[mraynrand]

Loan him up with weapons or blow up your running attack.

You're in the industry: what kind of APR can we get to loan up arod on weapons or a running attack?