Revisionist History: Jason LaCanfora on Packers 2020 First Round

[texaspackerbacker]

Unless he puts up 4500 yards and 30 TDs with 5 picks and they win 11 games. Then you'd be a crazy person to try and move on.

When you're right, you're right. And those numbers would actually be no more than an fairly average Aaron Rodgers season. The yardage might be a bit tough with an increased emphasis on the running game, but the rest for sure is likely.

[gbgary]

If Love is any good, then this could make sense. But they will not get the cap benefit for another year after that. The max they can expect is 3 years IF they absorb a large dead money hit in 2021.

Andrew Brandt has indicated he doesn't think the Packers want to set a record for dead money and will not do it. Just not in their DNA. So he thinks that AR is here two years (minimum, more likely 3), slightly less burdensome dead money hit in Year 3 of Love and then 2 years free and clear if you go that 2 year route.

As I said elsewhere, the pattern here is Favre/Rodgers, not Smith/Mahomes. 3 years, not 1. They will take Love on a good deal for 2 years and extend it to starter money sometime midway through Year 4 if he is progressing.

the big dead cap hit is after 2020 but even with that they save $5m and they're done. if they wait to do it after 2021 they save $17m but will have paid him for that year. a year where his cap hit is $36m and the team cap is likely lower than this years $198m.

[gbgary]

Unless he puts up 4500 yards and 30 TDs with 5 picks and they win 11 games. Then you'd be a crazy person to try and move on.

but they won't win a SB. what's the point of prolonging the exit? it's just more wasted time, effort, and money.

[Zool]

but they won't win a SB. what's the point of prolonging the exit? it's just more wasted time, effort, and money.

Only one team will. This is a silly argument. My guess is at the end of year 2 with Love, they will evaluate. That’s when the cap hit starts to lower. 3 years is the more likely. If Love sucks in year 3, you’ll have at least 4 more years of Rodgers.

Let’s just hope J Giles was wrong.

[RashanGary]

Only one team will. This is a silly argument. My guess is at the end of year 2 with Love, they will evaluate. That’s when the cap hit starts to lower. 3 years is the more likely. If Love sucks in year 3, you’ll have at least 4 more years of Rodgers.

Let’s just hope J Giles was wrong.

Agree. To say it another way, here's ARs chances of being the Packers starting QB by year (injury aside, only accounting for Love beating him out)

2020 - 100% chance Aaron beats out love
2021 - 97% Aaron is starting QB

2022 - 80% Aaron
2023 - 70% Aaron

2024 - 50% Aaron
2025- 48% Aaron
2026 - 45% Aaron


Ron Wolf deciples have had good QB play. Favre, Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Mayfield, Carr

I give the Packers a better shot than most teams to find a HOF QB because of how many HOFers are found by Wolfs guys.

Love is not a sure thing HOFer, not by any stretch. We have no clue if he's gonna pay out so right now we just watch and see. It might be a blown pick and we have AR till he's 42 years old. Shit, we might draft a HOFer like Wilson on the 3rd round next year and he'll push Rodgers out in his contact year.

Anything can happen at this point

Aaron said he "might not finish his career here"

Honestly though, he might. All we can do is see how it plays out. That's it.

[RashanGary]

I make long odds parlay bets sometimes. I always want to win 5,000 dollars on 10 dollars, but I never expect it.

Gute spent a late first round pick on Jordan Love because love has a chance.

You don't go spend the money until you know you won though. Any bettor knows he doesn't win every bet. Gute knows he's not gonna hit on every pick.

He'll only move on from Rodgers if the Love pick hits.

We have no clue yet if love is gonna be good. I hope he's a HOFer but I have no clue.

[bobblehead]

But the only people who affect the outcome are lafleur, Gute and Murphy, so whatever the whole world thinks doesn't amount to a hill of bean shit.

Are you implying that the bean took a big shit, or someone ate beans and then shit out the remains? Come on RG, I expect clarity from your posts.

[bobblehead]

When you're right, you're right. And those numbers would actually be no more than an fairly average Aaron Rodgers season. The yardage might be a bit tough with an increased emphasis on the running game, but the rest for sure is likely.

If we develop a deep threat that will get single coverage due to a smash mouth run game I think you may see Rodgers with his best yardage numbers in a long time. He just has to accept that he will have to do it with less opportunities, but much higher quality opportunities.

[RashanGary]

If we develop a deep threat that will get single coverage due to a smash mouth run game I think you may see Rodgers with his best yardage numbers in a long time. He just has to accept that he will have to do it with less opportunities, but much higher quality opportunities.

Exactly. Looking at the talent on our roster this is far more likely than a recreation of the 2011 Packers offense.

[pbmax]

But the only people who affect the outcome are lafleur, Gute and Murphy, so whatever the whole world thinks doesn't amount to a hill of bean shit.

Should Love be on the list?

[RashanGary]

Should Love be on the list?

Rodgers too if you're looking at it that way