Upcoming contracts

[RashanGary]

Free agents after this year.

Bakhtiari 29 (durable probowl level player at hard to find position)

Aaron Jones 25 (pro diet/workout made him seem more durable. Dillon might be able to replace. Jamal is a good 3rd down back and should be cheap)

Corey Linsley 29 (durable probowl level player at easiest to replace position)

Kevin King (oft injured and servicable with potential for really good)

Jamal Williams (durable. Pass pro extraordinaire makes his 3rd down presence an impact. Chemistry with 12 makes him even more impactful for the Packers on passing downs. Good route runner. Great screen player. Again, ideal for 3rd downs with 12, and should be cheap.)

Lane Taylor

Mercedes Lewis

Tyler Ervin - more insurance for Jones

Will Redmond

Montravious Adams



Players who can be cut to save money

Preston Smith 8m saved in y1, 16m in year 2

Christian Kirksey 6m saved in y1, contract ends

Adrian Amos 4.5m saved in y1, 10m in year 2

Rick Wagner 4m saved in y1, contract final after that

Billy Turner 3.5m saved in y1, 8m in year 2


Preston is our only OLB who can cover and pass rush. Would be hard to get rid of our only complete edge player. But..... Z and an emerging Gary along with the possibility that the Packers really like Ramsey and/or Garvin do make this possible with such a big savings coming from the decision.

Kirksey looks like an easy bye bye. Injury prone. Still. Couldn’t run down Kirk Cousins. Don’t have much at ILB but you’re probably about as good with Barnes as Kirksey.

Amos. Maybe you can keep Redmond and Greene for cheap and just part ways with a solid but high paid player.

Wagner or Turner looks obvious. One should probably go. Probably Wagner. But if you let Bakh go, maybe you keep both so the OL has stability in all places except LT. I think Wagner is the better player and cheaper so if your doctors like his health bill, maybe Turner goes.



And then it’s further complicated by the next years free agent class

Davante Adams
Allen Lazard
MVS
Jk Scott

With guys who could get a year early deal

Jaire
Elgton Jenkins
Jace and/or Keke if they perform


And then there is the Rodgers/Love question looming here too

[RashanGary]

12 is ridiculously tradable in the last year of his deal. Ridiculously tradable with a 28m salary that will amount to peanuts at that time for QB pay and possibly playing as well as any 39 year old QB in history.

There is a case to be made to sell out the cap and deal with the rebuild when 12 gets traded away.

12 loves chemistry and cohesion.
Adams
Lazard
Big bob Tonyan
Deguara seems to be a quick chemistry guy
Jace and 12 can click
Bakh is obviously important
Williams plays great with 12
MVS is getting there
Jones is there

Do you just stack the offense for 12 and make it very likely that he has a legendary last three years in Green Bay



And then


Try to keep the pass rush and secondary together



We can win a lot of games scoring 40 points and having a pass rush to make teams struggle trying to keep up. Z, Clark, Preston and Gary and maybe even Keke being a pass rusher are all here through 12s 3 year then trade contract. Alexander pretty much too.

Do ya sell out the future and win now with 12?

I say yes. Keep just about everyone and then pay for it later.

[RashanGary]

I’d rather sell out to win in these last years of his prime than try to balance the present and future. He has guys he loves playing with cuz they’re all on the same page. Breaking up the band is more destructive for 12 than most quarterbacks because of his adjustment mindset and all of the chemistry that takes.

You can either make it hard on 12 and force him to stay longer or you can go shoot for the stars and make these last three prime years great. It’s a favor for 12 to trade him when the salaries drown us and it gives us a chance for a rebuild with Love. No matter how you slice it, after three years of borrowing from the future you lose with Rodgers or lose with love. Might as well take a couple high picks as the last gift from Thompson 2005 draft and accept moving forward.

[texaspackerbacker]

I agree with you about selling out to win in these three years - keeping possibly all of the first group you mentioned above. After that, Rodgers' contract would inflate a lot? or it would end? (I think go on for 1 more year at an extremely high amount) Either way, assuming he is still extremely effective in 3 years, we ought to be able to restructure him or re-sign him for a more acceptable amount. Even after 3 years, it would probably be disastrous to lose him.

As for those expendables, yeah, they are IMO. Even Preston Smith - unless he really snaps back and improves the rest of the season can be let go. Z can play pass coverage, even though he is seldom asked to do it. Gary is the fastest of the three, and thus, he should be able to cover a short zone in the few rare instances it is necessary. I just don't see that as reason enough to keep P. Smith.

The most similar thing I can think of to a best case of trading Rodgers was when the Bucks traded Kareem - and basically parlayed that into 15 or 20 years of success. I very much doubt we would have anywhere near the success trading Rodgers, given the kind of free agency now in football compared to the NBA when Kareem was traded. Bottom line: we need to keep Rodgers in Green Bay for the rest of his career, and that needs to be well over 3 years.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers is cheap after the third year. 28m when other top qbs should be at or above 50.

Selling out for now comes at the expense of rebuilding in a few years like minny just had to do, cutting a ton of their quality players or not resigning. That's not a situation to have a 39 year old HOF QB in. Better off with picks and take chances on a young guy who will be around when the rebuild finishes.

[RashanGary]

Rodgers has the 17th highest cap hit this year at 21M
He's slated to be 3rd highest next year at 36M
He's slated to be 4th at 40 the next year
And then 11th at 28M the year after


He's expensive the next two years. You can fully sell out on the right now and restructure/extend to bring down the price in 2021 and 2022. But then you run the risk of having to.cut him.and not get any draft picks after.


So you have full sell our for now mode which would.be to lower Rodgers cap hits early with an extension. In which case you have to cut him when it inflates and get no draft picks

You have the mostly sell out for now option where all the other contracts are finnagled but you leave Rodgers alone and get a couple high picks in that last year

Or you have the plan for consistent winning where you be cap responsible and never have to rebuild but don't get those short term boosts you would if you sell out.



I kind of like the middle plan. Give Rodgers close to the best shot at an Owl here and still gives some control on where he goes so he doesn't end up a bear or Viking. And gets a couple draft picks to speed up the rebuild around love. It's not as careful and passive as option 3, and not as reckless and short sighted as option 1. A nice happy medium with a great shot at another ring with 12

[RashanGary]

Jones, King and bakh could all get huge signing bonuses on long term deals where you have to cut them after 12 leaves. That way you keep all 12s best guys

Adams, Lazard and MVS could get the same.the next year.


Then you keep all of team together for these last three years of 12 and deal with the consequences of losing everyone at the same time down the road. An extra 1st and 2nd round pick plus a couple tough first year's with love and high draft picks should allow you to restock the LT, DT and edge spots (toughest to fill) It's doable. Just a couple lowsy years of suffering from cap manipulation. I guess the worry is once you're on the bottom, its hard to rebuild winning culture.

[texaspackerbacker]

WHY do you persist in talking about the need to rid of Rodgers after 1, 2, or 3 years? Just keep him and absorb the $36 and $40m cap hits in the second and third years - other teams do worse with not as good players, then keep him for the $28m in the 4th year. If he is still good then, age 40, play it by ear, either re-sign him year to year for an appropriate amount based on how he is then, or maybe 2-4 years. The cap will steadily go up as the market price for QBs goes up. We can always arrange/cook things to make it work and still retain whatever other players it makes sense to retain. Or we could restructure him at the end of this season with a fairly cap friendly fairly long term deal that either goes to completion or ends with him retiring or being cut in maybe 4, 5, 6, or 7 years if his play deteriorates, as I doubt it will even well into his 40s.

I have always HATED the idea in any sport of the team I'm a fan of doing a total rebuild (which I certainly don't see the Vikings doing this year). You can almost always rebuild on the fly and stay near the top.

[RashanGary]

We always here the ”keep everyone” conversation and just bend the cap as the avenue for doing that. It's opening up.the full conversation of what those contracts mean in the long run. Now might be the time.to do it though. We have a window right now. Might wanna bend the cap.

And by bend the cap it means pay the cap hit later or cut a guy later. It's just a more full picture discussion of a lot of the one liners that are thrown around here and on Twitter

[texaspackerbacker]

I didn't say keep everyone. I'm all for your original list to lose after this season. However, that money saved plus the inevitable cap increase should easily make it possible to sign the other list to cap friendly contracts, even with the massive cap hits you said in year 2 and 3 for Rodgers.

[Bretsky]

Rodgers is cheap after the third year. 28m when other top qbs should be at or above 50.

.

Your making the case of what so many of us thought....how stupid it was to draft Jordan Love when we have an elite QB who will soon be cheap and his play is still stellar

[Bretsky]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

[Joemailman]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

Well, you can always backload contracts so the biggest cap hits are at least a couple years from now. Kenny Clark's base salary in 2021 will be 1 million. It will be 13 million in 2023. But doing too much of that will catch up to you eventually.

[texaspackerbacker]

If the guy is still good, though, you can restructure him a second time, and do it all over again. Dead money only becomes and issue if he deteriorates and needs to be cut.

[RashanGary]

IS THERE a WAY to keep BACK and AJO next year ??

I think so, yeah. Like Joe sais, it catches up eventually. So it would be a lose a bunch of guys a few years from now cuz eventually you have to pay the piper.

In the case of this team.... AR 37, 38, 39..... If you push it back and pay the piper in 3 years, its a rebuild with a 40 year old QB. He probably won't see the rebuild.

So I think, if you start that now, you plan the rebuild around the young guy and get the best of ARs last best years now with an aggressive shot.


So.yeah, we could.keep both and king and have a really good setup again for 2021. And can do.things.to make 2022 great too. But 2023 would be a lose everyone year. Would be painful to.watch ARs last two.years.on a start over team. Best to take the picks.and roll with Love at that point.