Official Degenerate Gamblers Thread

[bobblehead]

All I know is I need about 20 points from Kareem Hunt to win in my fantasy league and got about 30.

I took 2nd in my league and then put up my 3rd lowest point total all season in the first playoff game. OOOFFF

[GB-Brandon]

This is where I’m sitting tonight on a “3 Teamer”. The two college basketball games doing all the heavy lifting for me to get value on the Raiders tonight. This, if you haven’t noticed yet is my main strategy in getting value.

Bet Details:
302 Raiders (-180) (NFL)
WON: 693 Duke (-185) (NCAA Men) Score: 75-65
WON: 663 Pittsburgh PK Buy 1½ (-140) (NCAA Men) Score: 70-55

Just need a Raiders win tonight which I feel pretty good about.

[bobblehead]

This is where I’m sitting tonight on a “3 Teamer”. The two college basketball games doing all the heavy lifting for me to get value on the Raiders tonight. This, if you haven’t noticed yet is my main strategy in getting value.

Bet Details:
302 Raiders (-180) (NFL)
WON: 693 Duke (-185) (NCAA Men) Score: 75-65
WON: 663 Pittsburgh PK Buy 1½ (-140) (NCAA Men) Score: 70-55

Just need a Raiders win tonight which I feel pretty good about.

You really don't learn. And then the only game you actually post about BEFORE the game is played....a -180 favorite loses. Oh well, here goes.

I like 2 games this week. Miami and Washington. Miami is playing pretty solid ball, both sides. N.E. is as out of sorts as a Belicheck team gets. The line is getting a sort of "historical" bump. The truth is that right now, Miami is a better team playing at home. They should be laying 6, not 2. Washington is peaking at the right time. That young defense can get after the QB and contrary to popular belief, Russel isn't at his best when running for his life. For every great play he makes, he makes a forgettable one. Alex Smith is ball controlling and game managing the way Riverboat Ron likes. However, I won't bet this game until right before the game as we may end up with Dwayne Haskins starting at QB for the football team in which case all bets are off.

A smaller play I like is the Chefs. They have beaten several good team whereas the Saints haven't really beaten anyone. The defense has been stout, but that is negated by the fact no one has stopped Maholmes. So then it becomes can the saints score enough to cover +3? I doubt it.

So 3 plays, one at half the bet:

Washington +6 (if Smith plays)
Miami -2
Half unit K.C. -3

I expect to win money with that outlay sunday.

[GB-Brandon]

Well I’ve been on the wrong side of two very close NFL games this week with Cleveland and the Raiders no doubt. These things happen. There will be some valleys in this and losses. Money management allows these valleys to be sustainable.

Just so I’m “Posting Before Games Played” which in the case I was posting my pick because I’m pretty sure everyone here only plays football I posted the whole Raiders parlay with the college basketball games already played but oh well. I’m pretty sure none of these games have kicked off yet. I will also be making a big play on USC ML on a straight play as that is my game of the week for heavy duty players!!

Tonight I like

Three team Parlay

USC ML -155
Marshal ML -190
Packers ML (1st Half) -258


This is a nice “Come Back Ticket”

[GB-Brandon]

San Jose State @ +7 is tremendous value. I will be pumping it in ML into a parlay ticket to juice. I think they win outright against Boise State.

I also believe the Packers cover this week as well -8 but will be buying it down -7 for good measure. Bills ML is Gimmee.

I will also be playing Chiefs, Browns, Dolphins and Colts all on the ML.

Notre Dame +10.5 and Florida +17 will also be games I will be involved in.

Arizona State, UCLA and Air Force are all college ML plays I like.

I don’t have time to list all my Collge basketball plays. Sorry!!!!

[bobblehead]

That's a lotta action brandon. It's true I don't bet much hoops til the tourny. I paly a lot of in game nba. I like betting first half dogs, 2nd half faves in nba.

[Joemailman]

Alex Smith out. Haskins starts.

[MadtownPacker]

Why don’t you fuckers pick all this weekends NFL winners heads up. See who come out better. You can both PM them to me and I will post together so there is no copying picks.

[bobblehead]

Why don’t you fuckers pick all this weekends NFL winners heads up. See who come out better. You can both PM them to me and I will post together so there is no copying picks.

I didn't do this thread for bragging rights. As I said, I might splurge for the whopping $100 cbs charges to run a pick 5 next year. That can be for bragging rights. I was hoping for discussion of games and the WHY behind the bets. Like Miami vs. N.E. I think Miami is playing good ball. They have been much better this season. Even though Belicheat has a great record vs. rookie QBs he is just short on talent this year. 4 starters sat out the season. Patriots have been all over the map this season. They play great at times and then lay down. They beat Miami in week 1, and that plays into this. Flores is going to have Miami playing its best game. End of the day, Miami has a better roster right now. Better home team laying 2 in a division game. I just see Flores pulling out all the stops to beat the man and get this young team into the playoffs.

Now, I might be wrong. I admit I don't win money betting sports. I like to play games on odd nights just to have action. Maybe if I took it really serious and bet a lot more on games I like I could be a net winner, but its not worth the risk to me. What I really wanted was junkies like me to break down the Sunday night, Monday and Thursday games so maybe I would see something I like and get better action. Hell, Maybe I'll play San Jose +7 today like Brandon said just to have a little juice on the game.

We can brag next season if someone reminds me and I can get 10 rats involved. Cbs is a good system. Nobody sees each others picks until that game kicks off. Its good clean fun.

[GB-Brandon]

I didn't do this thread for bragging rights. As I said, I might splurge for the whopping $100 cbs charges to run a pick 5 next year. That can be for bragging rights. I was hoping for discussion of games and the WHY behind the bets. Like Miami vs. N.E. I think Miami is playing good ball. They have been much better this season. Even though Belicheat has a great record vs. rookie QBs he is just short on talent this year. 4 starters sat out the season. Patriots have been all over the map this season. They play great at times and then lay down. They beat Miami in week 1, and that plays into this. Flores is going to have Miami playing its best game. End of the day, Miami has a better roster right now. Better home team laying 2 in a division game. I just see Flores pulling out all the stops to beat the man and get this young team into the playoffs.

Now, I might be wrong. I admit I don't win money betting sports. I like to play games on odd nights just to have action. Maybe if I took it really serious and bet a lot more on games I like I could be a net winner, but its not worth the risk to me. What I really wanted was junkies like me to break down the Sunday night, Monday and Thursday games so maybe I would see something I like and get better action. Hell, Maybe I'll play San Jose +7 today like Brandon said just to have a little juice on the game.

We can brag next season if someone reminds me and I can get 10 rats involved. Cbs is a good system. Nobody sees each others picks until that game kicks off. Its good clean fun.

San Jose delivered on the ML!!

[GB-Brandon]

What I got tomorrow is a 4 teamer with

Dolphins ML - I like how Tua is playing and Devante Parker is coming back and playing tomorrow. I also made a mid straight bet on them ML.
Browns ML- Browns can run the ball on anyone and score and I’m not getting tricked on the Giants again. G-Men will play hard but won’t be enough.
Colts ML- Houston doesn’t have much left. This should be easy.
Chiefs ML- This one is easy for me too. Mahommes vs whoever the Saints play at QB is “W”

value play on a “Two Teamer” with

WFT ML and Browns ML. Seattle has to go all the way across the country. They historically have problems with dominant defensive fronts.
I’m feeling this one. I think it’s going to be close and the WFT will have a chance to win at end of the game. The Seahawks defense can’t be trusted. I should of probably took the points but I went for it and the $.

[GB-Brandon]

If my “4 teamer” somehow falls apart I will maneuver accordingly. I usually shrink it down or pivot with 2nd half bets of games I have a good feel on to re-start.

[GB-Brandon]

San Jose delivered on the ML!!

But that’s really what I do. I find a game that they make a mistake handicapping on that I can get for +200 or better and I use it to juice as many 2-3(depending how much I’m wagering) teamer tickets as I can. You can usually find 1 or 2 of them every week between college basketball and football and even NFL sometimes. They just have to many games to handicap. I look for mistakes. That’s really what I do.

[GB-Brandon]

I don’t think there is a mistake in the WFT vs Seahawks game as far as the line. It is a situation where I’m looking at a team that historically doesn’t travel well in long distance situations and doesn’t do well against dominant fronts. I believe the Seahawks have some roster issues that the Redskins can expose so this game for me is more of a matchup issue and I am also going a little off script. Hopefully it doesn’t get me in trouble. It is more of a flyer if anything. The “Under” I believe would also be a solid play in this game but I don’t usually play “totals”.

[GB-Brandon]

Ahhhh, What the hell!!!