The Packers defense is better than you think

[RashanGary]

Jaire, King, and Savage are all three young, athletic players with a lot of upside and have shown aptitude for true high end veteran play one day. Obviously Jaire looks like the Best of them but it took him time to get there. The same way Savage is now turning it on and King is better than given credit.

Pettine was not going to be able to run 4 different styles of defense to perfection with 23 and 24 year old. It was always going to be a process to get them to the level we all want. That is what has been happening. Period.

They took some bumps with the zone learning but have absolutely made improvements. They have always played solid man defense.


They're gonna turn it on and are turning it on in spurts as I see more and more huge plays with sneaky blitzes that no one sees coming. You can't get away with those blitzes if the back end isn't trickint the QB into not finding that hot read.

It's happening. Now. The statistics don't show it, but the packers defense is good! And a big part of the reason is the learning time they put into building some nice reliable zone options from young players who NEEDED to learn.


Relax! This is a great team. There is more to football than 24 year old knowing it all on day 1. Get over the panic and enjoy seeing guys grow. If you can't see the process, no.wonder it's frustrating

[bobblehead]

Its better. But to the point I always argued with Pb when he was man enough to debate, when you dominate ToP and keep the other teams offense sitting on the sideline out of rhythm and stiff all facets of the game improve. If you go 3 and out, or score in 28 seconds your D gets worn down and the opposition gains rhythm and focus. Game flow is completely misunderstood by fans and even most coaches. We are in a great game flow right now. When fat mike got to the 4th quarter and tried to run to kill the clock it was a quick 3 and out. Other teams defenses were usually fresh still and we didn't really focus on the run game in practice or in game. M4 gets to that last 6 minutes and still throws short, runs effective and finishes the job.

[Upnorth]

It may be better than I think but that still puts itbelow average

[HarveyWallbangers]

It's probably better than most think, but it's still firmly average. They are up to 8th in yards allowed (at just over 330 yards/game), 10th in sacks, 12th in passing yards allowed, and 12th in rushing yards allowed. Yet, they are 17th in points allowed. Part of the yardage stats is the offense keeps them off the field--although the special teams haven't been doing them in service. It does seem like--as there stats are improving--they are getting worse in red zone defense.

[gbgary]

i think they're "pretty good" so no they're not better than i think. it'll take everyone on deck and healthy to make it to a SB. oh...and it'll take the O playing small ball, and keeping the D off the field...like yesterday's 2nd half and the first 4 games of the season. first downs over ill-timed attempts at big plays. ball control.

[Joemailman]

It's probably better than most think, but it's still firmly average. They are up to 8th in yards allowed (at just over 330 yards/game), 10th in sacks, 12th in passing yards allowed, and 12th in rushing yards allowed. Yet, they are 17th in points allowed. Part of the yardage stats is the offense keeps them off the field--although the special teams haven't been doing them in service. It does seem like--as there stats are improving--they are getting worse in red zone defense.

They rank high in yards allowed as you say, but are only 16th in average yards allowed per play. As you say, the offense keeping them off the field helps the total yardage. What's bothersome to me is that they're only 24th in INT's and 27th in total turnovers. Those ranks should be higher given that they're often playing with double digit leads. The lack of defensive turnovers hasn't badly hurt this team only because the Packers offense is the best in the NFL at avoiding turnovers.

What does it all mean? Probably that if the defense can get off the field enough that the Packers offense has the upper hand in time of possession, they have a chance against anybody in the NFC.

[texaspackerbacker]

The personnel is probably better than most people think. The performance is also - maybe about a third of the time. But the rest of the time, the D is dragging things down by not being able to get off the field and cutting down the time Aaron Rodgers, Adams, Jones, etc. can work their magic.

I think the reason for the inconsistency is scheme/coaching. Pettine finally figured out how to stop the run versus the Lions. Great, but he apparently did so by letting them pass like crazy - back to that loose zone that wins games but wins ugly, and who knows what happens against a better team. It's annoying that the Packers can't seem to stop both the pass and the run in the same game.

Personnel-wise, we sure could use a decent ILB. I had hope before the season that Kirksey would be that, but he has been pure crap. I was one of those last year that said don't draft an ILB early because the position for the Packers anyway, just isn't that important. I hereby roll that back. That is the missing piece of the puzzle. The only other significant weakness is Kevin King as the second Corner. It seems like he gets beat too often in man coverage and appears also to be the main culprit when zone D breaks down.

[run pMc]

Unless your offense gets decimated by injuries or FA, offense tends to be more consistent year over year. Defense tends to have higher variability because of turnovers (and sacks to a lesser extent) vary from year to year, and have a big impact.
I strongly agree the ToP by the MLF offense makes them look better, as does the fact that they are a front-running team... i.e., they score early and often, and the other team has to keep pace. Yesterday's game vs. the Lions I believe they each had 8 possessions, but GB punted less and held the ball longer -- a LOT longer in the 2nd half (13+ minutes of the 3Q changed the game).

As for the actual performance of the defense, I continue to say that I don't think they often play smart and at less than the sum of their players. Some of that is youth or football IQ, but I also think it's coaching. I don't have much to back this up beyond anecdotes, but it feels like they do ok on early downs and then give up an easy 3rd down completion to reset the chains. Again, just a feeling but it seems like Pettine is so terrified of giving up big plays that he's playing his corners too far off, playing too much zone, or his safeties too deep. I think Kenny Clark needs help on the DL; when Keke or Lowry contribute anything it's a pleasant surprise. I think they still have issues with defending the MoF too, mostly in the short to intermediate and I put that on the LBs more than the safeties. I also think Z.Smith is so focused on getting the QB that he can be fooled into vacating the edge and giving up runs to the outside... Clay did the same thing. Preston and Gary are guilty of this as well, to a lesser extent.

There have been games where the defense has played well... at least for stretches. The Lions aren't bad on offense, and just looking at 1st half vs. 2nd half stats they looked like they locked them down more in 2H. I just wouldn't use 'dominating' or 'stifling' to describe them, and I'm not sure I'd use 'dependable' either.

[HarveyWallbangers]

They rank high in yards allowed as you say, but are only 16th in average yards allowed per play. As you say, the offense keeping them off the field helps the total yardage. What's bothersome to me is that they're only 24th in INT's and 27th in total turnovers. Those ranks should be higher given that they're often playing with double digit leads. The lack of defensive turnovers hasn't badly hurt this team only because the Packers offense is the best in the NFL at avoiding turnovers.

What does it all mean? Probably that if the defense can get off the field enough that the Packers offense has the upper hand in time of possession, they have a chance against anybody in the NFC.

The thing about turnovers though is I think there is a lot of luck involved, so maybe we are due for a barrage.

This year the top 5 teams in forced turnovers:

Miami - 25 (30th last year)
Pittsburgh - 25 (1st last year)
Indianapolis - 22 (14th last year)

With much the same personnel, we ranked 8th in turnovers forced last year with 25. This year we are 27th with 13.
Chicago finished 1st in turnovers forced with 36 in 2018, finished 22nd in 2019 with 19, and are 24th this year with 14.
Seattle finished 11th in turnovers forced with 26 in 2018, finished 3rd in 2019 with 32, and are 16th this year with 18.

And the list goes on.

[Bossman641]

The second half stats only look better because the offense played keep away. The thing that pisses me off the most about the D is they have zero killer instinct. We've been up 14+ points numerous times in the fourth quarter. The pass rushers should be teeing off then. Instead, the whole D plays soft and inevitably lets the other team back in the game. Just once it'd be nice to see the D slam the door shut instead of crack it back open.

[RashanGary]

I truly believe it's about to take off because that savage blitz was something we could not pull off a year ago. We had to line up, let Clark, Z and P rush undisciplined and hope they don't get gashed when the opposition runs right though the hole left by the reckless rush. More turnovers. Better stats. But then good running teams and certain matchups have their way.

Solution? Develop a few other go to defenses. You don't want to walk on the field with a healthy 49ers offense or a guy like filthy Phil rivers and call one bread and butter defense. Shanahan walked into the games with his diverse run options, knew what we were calling and called a hard man beater run game twice. Filthy Phil walked in and torched us, despite whatever turnovers we may have had on the whole season last year. He knew what he was facing had shredded it.

We spent the last 10 weeks developing some other options. Now pettine can choose to, at any time, let Z, Clark and P do some reckless shit. And if offenses can't call pure man beaters every play, it'll probably work out a bunch or the time. But...... With all of the zone defense we've worked on, he can also zone blitz savage in the b gap and have a free hitter. Stafford doesn't know it's coming and a big play happens BECAUSE of having zone defense as an option.

It's coming together!

[RashanGary]

The Titans game will prove if we're better than a year ago on defense. That's the offense most similar to the 9ers last year.

[RashanGary]

If you don't practice safe zone defense first (7 in coverage) it's awful hard to pull out the 5 man rushes with zone defense behind it. Early season was development time. Safe. But at least it didn't end in quick scores.

Now it's time to put it all together. Mix man and zone. Mix 3, 4 and 5 man rushes. Play callers and veteran QB's can't line up in the perfect play now. And we're practiced enough to have ironed out some of those details like playing too far off or not defending the sticks on 3rd down.

That free hitter savage blitz is the end game payoff of developing zone defense. We're more ready for good run teams and veteran QB's than we were a year ago. If Stafford wasn't so damn composed, instead of being curled up like an achordian, we probably would have some turnovers yesterday.

Stafford
Stafford
Matt Ryan
Drew Brees
Phil Rivers
Tom Brady
Watson
Cousins
Cousins


It hasn't exactly been your who's who of easy to confuse quarterbacks. We've played some good quarterbacks with good run games on top.

We complained every time one of the young guys messed up a detail like the yardage marker in zone coverage but those lumps were needed to learn. Ever watch a 15 year old try to use a broom? Things take practice

[HarveyWallbangers]

I wonder where we rank in defense three and out percentage and red zone percentage? It feels like we play well for several drives each game, but our red zone percentage is getting worse as the season goes along. We've also given up points and yards late with big leads.

[Joemailman]

The Titans game will prove if we're better than a year ago on defense. That's the offense most similar to the 9ers last year.

Except that against 49ers the speed of Mostert Packers had a big problem with. The bigger problem with Titans is getting run over by Henry, although Henry certainly can break big runs.