2021 predict the offseason thread

[Fritz]

When Gute signed the Smith Bros. and Amos two years ago, he immediately started kicking the can down the road. The Packers are over the cap, and that's not only because of it being a Covid cap. The can is already down the road. It's just a question of whether you want to make the can into a damn storage container in the next few years.

All these people crying about how the Packers never go "all in" - teams that "go all in" end up in cap hell, and the Packers are fairly close to that now. They've been all in under Gute. They don't get it done in the next year or two, and you'll see the whole thing have to get blown up.

[wist43]

When Gute signed the Smith Bros. and Amos two years ago, he immediately started kicking the can down the road. The Packers are over the cap, and that's not only because of it being a Covid cap. The can is already down the road. It's just a question of whether you want to make the can into a damn storage container in the next few years.

All these people crying about how the Packers never go "all in" - teams that "go all in" end up in cap hell, and the Packers are fairly close to that now. They've been all in under Gute. They don't get it done in the next year or two, and you'll see the whole thing have to get blown up.

Part of going "all in" would mean drafting to fill immediate needs - the Packers never do that. They certainly didn't last year.

Drafting Love may pan out in the long run, but in the short term the Lombardi Trophy resides in Tampa Bay. And there's the rub. So from last year to this - we still have all the same needs we did last year, namely ILB, WR, and OT. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Gute doesn't draft any of those positions again.

Gute had to go out and sign 2 LB/DE's and a competent safety b/c the Packers seriously suck at evaluating and drafting front seven talent, and defense in general.

I like Gute better than TT, but he's still cut from the same cloth.

[Joemailman]

When Gute signed the Smith Bros. and Amos two years ago, he immediately started kicking the can down the road. The Packers are over the cap, and that's not only because of it being a Covid cap. The can is already down the road. It's just a question of whether you want to make the can into a damn storage container in the next few years.

All these people crying about how the Packers never go "all in" - teams that "go all in" end up in cap hell, and the Packers are fairly close to that now. They've been all in under Gute. They don't get it done in the next year or two, and you'll see the whole thing have to get blown up.

Yes, Gute did kick the can down the road a couple of years ago. And I think he always knew things would be a little tight with the cap in 2021. But Covid is a huge factor. The cap is about 28 million less than Gute had every reason to expect it would be in 2021. If the cap were where it would have been without Covid, the Packers would be about 20 million under the cap. If that were the case, the question would not be whether they can afford to sign Aaron Jones, but simply whether they want to. The key is to get through 2022 without having to do what the Saints are doing now. After that, the new TV deals kick in and there will be a lot more money to spend.

[bobblehead]

Wist is back.

Hard to blame Gute for the Bakh injury. He rightly assessed the OT situation. Bakh, Turner, and Wagner made for a good group. We don't know who he will bring in during FA yet.

He rightly assessed the WR position. Did you know the Packers led the league in scoring and Rodgers was MVP?

RB? He drafted a guy last year to cover that hole. I think Dillon will be very good.

We have plenty of good young players on the interior OL (Jenkins, Patrick, Runyan, Stepaniak).

He brought in Martin, Barnes, and Kirksey at ILB. Kirksey didn't work out, but people liked the move. I think Barnes and Martin have a chance. I don't see it being a huge need--unless they can get a true difference maker. Hard to get one drafting late.

He needs to do a better job at DL. That, along with OT (because of the Bakh injury) and CB are our biggest needs.

I like many of your points, but as is normal I'll only focus on the one thing that bothers me. DL is soft and OL could use some help. The game is won in the trenches. You don't win with a QB running for his life, and you DO win by making a QB run for his life and stuffing the run. I do think the OL is "ok" because I would like to see Jenkins move to RT with Bakh healthy. Then the group of youngsters and Turner, maybe Taylor can support the middle. DL is a big need right now. Clarke is a stud, but one more is a necessity, not a luxury.

[bobblehead]

Part of going "all in" would mean drafting to fill immediate needs - the Packers never do that. They certainly didn't last year.

Drafting Love may pan out in the long run, but in the short term the Lombardi Trophy resides in Tampa Bay. And there's the rub. So from last year to this - we still have all the same needs we did last year, namely ILB, WR, and OT. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Gute doesn't draft any of those positions again.

Gute had to go out and sign 2 LB/DE's and a competent safety b/c the Packers seriously suck at evaluating and drafting front seven talent, and defense in general.

I like Gute better than TT, but he's still cut from the same cloth.

That trophy could have been in GB with a small few things breaking right. Bakh staying healthy. PI called on the Rodgers pick. King not getting called for playing the TB style of defense. Running the rock in the 4th quarter. Rodgers running for it on 2nd and 3rd to goal. Give me any one of those things and GB might be the champs. Give me 2 of them and I think its a lock. Some the refs did to us, some we did to ourselves, some were flukes (bakh)

[sharpe1027]

For once, you got something right, sharpe.

This this the kindest thing a Packer Rat has ever said to me. Are you feeling okay?

[sharpe1027]

Structuring your contracts to increase with the expected rise in salary cap year to year is NOT kicking the can down the road or cooking the cap. It's what everyone has to do just to be competitive in signing free agents, period.

When you load up your future years well beyond the expected rise in salary, THEN you are deviating from the norm and cooking the cap. You're all but guaranteeing you'll have dead money in future years in exchange for signing more in the current year.

Is that wise? Hard to quantify, but you have no magic wand. It's always a trade off.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Structuring your contracts to increase with the expected rise in salary cap year to year is NOT kicking the can down the road or cooking the cap. It's what everyone has to do just to be competitive in signing free agents, period.

When you load up your future years well beyond the expected rise in salary, THEN you are deviating from the norm and cooking the cap. You're all but guaranteeing you'll have dead money in future years in exchange for signing more in the current year.

Is that wise? Hard to quantify, but you have no magic wand. It's always a trade off.

Bingo!

[Upnorth]

Structuring your contracts to increase with the expected rise in salary cap year to year is NOT kicking the can down the road or cooking the cap. It's what everyone has to do just to be competitive in signing free agents, period.

When you load up your future years well beyond the expected rise in salary, THEN you are deviating from the norm and cooking the cap. You're all but guaranteeing you'll have dead money in future years in exchange for signing more in the current year.

Is that wise? Hard to quantify, but you have no magic wand. It's always a trade off.

Holy shit sharpe right twice in a day!

[sharpe1027]

Holy shit sharpe right twice in a day!

Day drinking has its benefits.

[Joemailman]

Preston Smith restructured contract.

Pete Dougherty
@PeteDougherty
·
31s
Move saves Packers $7.25M in cap room, close to the $8M they would have saved if they’d cut him but pushes $3.25 into ‘22 cap.
Quote Tweet
Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
· 39m
A breakdown of the adjusted contract for #Packers OLB Preston Smith, who now sticks in GB:
— $8M salary ($200K workout bonus, $300K in 46-mans, $6.5M signing bonus, $1M base.)
— $4.4M available in sack incentives, so he can eclipse the $12M he was set to earn before the redo.

[Sparkey]

Packers not tendering Boyle. The Love machine will be getting some pt this year.

[wist43]

I don't care about future cap hits if it increases our odds at winning championships now.

If we end up in rebuild mode in 4 years, so what?? I can live with that if we bag 2 Lombardi Trophies along the way.

I'd rather do that than have a manageable cap in 4 years and zero Lombardi Trophies.

[Bretsky]

Wist is back.

Hard to blame Gute for the Bakh injury. He rightly assessed the OT situation. Bakh, Turner, and Wagner made for a good group. We don't know who he will bring in during FA yet.

He rightly assessed the WR position. Did you know the Packers led the league in scoring and Rodgers was MVP?

RB? He drafted a guy last year to cover that hole. I think Dillon will be very good.

We have plenty of good young players on the interior OL (Jenkins, Patrick, Runyan, Stepaniak).

He brought in Martin, Barnes, and Kirksey at ILB. Kirksey didn't work out, but people liked the move. I think Barnes and Martin have a chance. I don't see it being a huge need--unless they can get a true difference maker. Hard to get one drafting late.

He needs to do a better job at DL. That, along with OT (because of the Bakh injury) and CB are our biggest needs.

TRUTH................DID YOU LIKE THE BACH CONTRACT given the cap going where it is ?

It seems a rarity that GB borderline overpays for it's own guys. Seems like we did there

[sharpe1027]

I don't care about future cap hits if it increases our odds at winning championships now.

If we end up in rebuild mode in 4 years, so what?? I can live with that if we bag 2 Lombardi Trophies along the way.

I'd rather do that than have a manageable cap in 4 years and zero Lombardi Trophies.

Amen. If there was a guaranteed trade off of winning it all for having to suffer rebuild project, why the hell not take it! Every team should win a Superbowl because all they need to do is pick the year they want to win and spend shitload of backloaded money. It's that simple.

Unfortunately, nothing can guarantee a trophy. I'll go one step further, how many recent Superbowl winners cooked the cap to do it? The proof should be in the results.