BUCKY BROOKS......TOP 5 PER POSITION IN NFL DRAFT

[HarveyWallbangers]

Bretsky, I think first round receivers tend to play better in year 1, but over the course of a rookie contract or career, the 2nd-5th rounders do quite well. You just go down the list of top performing WR's and most don't come from the first round. I'm a pretty big believer in rounds 2-3 because when I go down the list, that's where the good ones come from, especially 2nd round. I believe in rarely taking a WR in the first round because it's the easiest position to fill later.

Interesting stat:

Only 27% of 1st round receivers have made it to a second contract with the team drafting them.

[sharpe1027]

Interesting stat:

Does that exclude WRs that hit the open market? How does it compare to other positions? Not sure what to make of that number.

[Fritz]

Does that exclude WRs that hit the open market? How does it compare to other positions? Not sure what to make of that number.

This seems like a good spot for this article. It's from Acme Packing and is an analysis of which positions NFL scouts are best at evaluating in terms of first-round talent. Apparently, offensive tackle and cornerback evaluations (general, NFL scouting departments) are the most solid of all positions. The offensive tackles and corners drafted in the first round are the ones who most consistently become very successful starters. As the draft goes on the "hit" rate is lower.

You might be thinking "well, isn't that true of any position?" but the answer is no, it's not. There's a high wide receiver "hit" rate in the first round, but that level of scouting success does not drop as precipitously as it does at other positions. In other words, your chances of hitting on a wide receiver later in the draft are better than your odds of hitting on an offensive tackle or corner later.

The worst positions in terms of hitting in the first round? Defensive linemen. No surprise there. They are apparently the most difficult to evaluate.

Then, as the article points out, if you factor in how deep each position is in a draft, you can get a sense of where you might be best drafting a position. This year, according to the rankings, there are more corners than offensive tackles, so you'd think, all else being equal at #29 (as in, the players are rated equally), you'd go for the offensive tackle first.

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/nfl-draft-2021/2021/4/9/22373950/putting-together-an-nfl-draft-playbook-plus-how-it-affects-the-packers

[sharpe1027]

The thing that is puzzling about those stats is that, ignoring the round and undrafted free agents, the hit rate would seem to necessarily follows the number of players drafted relative to how many starting positions open up.

Number of drafted/number of players exiting.

Maybe they're just drafting too many DL.

[RashanGary]

Over the years I’ve seen guys just drastically over perform and get better as the years go on. My 18 year old plays rugby. He’s 6’2” 175 lbs. he developed late. Some guys were all muscled out at 17 years old and my guy is just now starting to add weight. Some of these over performers are late bloomers. Some guys reach their full athletic profile at 21 years old and other guys are still getting better until 25 years old.

I think I’d be all about drafting late bloomer DL later in the draft every year. Maybe 1 in 3 or 1 in 4 pan out, but take them every single year and separate the wheat from the chaff.

If you have your finger on the pulse of body development timelines, I think you can draft those late bloomers and look lucky a lot of the time. Testing numbers at 21 years old might not be straight apples to apples when you account for genetic development timeline. The guys who came in small and skinny (bakhtiari, a 240 pound freshman tackle) can keep getting better in the league.

That's why I'm all for jalen mayfield, a 245 pound freshman tackle who's still coming into his athletic prime. I'll bet on him to get better when other guys are coming in mostly maxed out.

[RashanGary]

Watching bakhtiari over perform and seeing my sons development compared to his peers makes me start to account for genetics and development timelines and look for the signs that a guy is a late bloomer.

Go search “bakhtiari freshman” and look how small he was. Clearly he got better and better when other guys had already maxed out and I think him being a late bloomer is the reason why.

[texaspackerbacker]

I wonder how bulking up relatively late like that correlates with major knee injuries.

[sharpe1027]

I wonder how bulking up relatively late like that correlates with major knee injuries.

Or drug use.

[bobblehead]

I have only watched a few games but I was so impressed with Justin Fields in the final four game. He was so good. People seem to really like Trey Lance as well.

Lance is a Cam Newton type guy. Uber physical talent. Bigger than Lamar Jackson (thicker). But like Lamar he is raw. He needs to sit a year. Washington is my guess unless someone reaches. Riverboat Ron got the most out of Cam, and he has Fitzmagic for the upcoming season. That would be a nice fit.

[bobblehead]

I watched an Ohio state game (don't watch a ton of college football) and he reminded me of culpepper. I don't know if I love his game, but he looked ok. I don't have an opinion on a lot of the other guys cuz haven't seen whole games. Fields might be a solid QB but I don't think he's special.

Comparing him to the other guy I've watched full games of, Jordan Love...... It's a tough comp because Love was constantly pressured and harassed, but I thought Love showed a little more with being able to get off good throws off platform and I thought Love was more competitive and gritty.

At the end of the day, the two quarterbacks I've watched full games of the last two years, I think they're about equal. I like fields size and arm. I like loves improvisation, calm under pressure and fire. I think.theyre about equal prospects with Fields safer and Love the upside player.

Agree about Love being calm. I have gone back to watch him and try and give him a chance. McShay was in love with him, even predicting he goes before Herbert. Love doesn't really panic in the pocket and keeps his head downfield. I see why they liked him, still hate the pick...especially after Rodgers turned in an MVP season.

[run pMc]

I think Love is ok in the pocket -- needs to work on the internal clock, but he keeps his eyes downfield. His lower body mechanics/footwork are (if you look at his college tape) bad and I expect MLF went to work on that. His (upper) throwing mechanics look ok-to-good -- his arm is strong enough.
I noticed he played a LOT out of the shotgun, so I hope he's being well coached with played from under center -- again, footwork is important there. He's an above average athlete, but he's not Mahomes. Unlike some college QB's, you can find numerous examples of him going through his reads/progressions, which is good and tells me he can do that. His last year he made some poor decisions but I think his surrounding talent (OL, WR) was subpar and he felt pressure to make something happen. Still, that will need to be carefully coached if he wants to play in the pros. Didn't play great against top college competition, which is a concern too.

He's got talent and tools that a patient coach can work with but whether he will amount to anything remains to be seen. Two or three years of watching Rodgers and rebuilding his fundamentals and decision making could pan out. Or not.
I didn't like the pick because (a) it felt a year early based on Rodgers contract and (b) they gave up an R4 to do it. In a vacuum it's hard to fault a personnel department for drafting a successor to your starting QB when they are 37 and have been injured before.

I really hope for his sake he gets a lot of preseason snaps. I imagine some of it will be ugly, but as long as he makes progress from game 1 thru game 3 and shows enough that he could get them through a 2 game stretch that will be a good sign. If he rocks it a la Hasselbeck even better - he can either be trade bait or keep that shoulder chip/pressure on Rodgers.

[HarveyWallbangers]

I thought the Michigan State game was some of his best tape. He was awful against LSU, but he had no chance in that game. A team that lost 9 of 10 starters from the previous year on the road against the national champs. Huge talent disparity.

[HarveyWallbangers]

Lance is a Cam Newton type guy. Uber physical talent. Bigger than Lamar Jackson (thicker). But like Lamar he is raw. He needs to sit a year. Washington is my guess unless someone reaches. Riverboat Ron got the most out of Cam, and he has Fitzmagic for the upcoming season. That would be a nice fit.

My comp for Lance is a young Donovan McNabb. The one that ran for over 600 yards and 6 TDs in his second year. Similar arm talent and intelligence.

[Guiness]

When you're right, you're right. 13-3 the past two years, and with a little better D, we'd have gone all the way. Let's get that better D. I like the top five Corners listed here as well as at least two or three not listed. We should be able to get somebody there in the first and maybe even double up on Corner in the second round to do the job nearly as well as Jaire.

As four WR, in addition to the top three, St. Brown is a solid fourth, and either Taylor or Funchess is more than adequate to round out the group. I would like to get a kick returner, though.

What happened with Patterson? It was looking like a near done deal for a bit.

[RashanGary]

My comp for Lance is a young Donovan McNabb. The one that ran for over 600 yards and 6 TDs in his second year. Similar arm talent and intelligence.

Fields reminds me of Culpepper.